How quickly would it get ugly if SHTF?

[benjamen]

http://www.wnd.com/2012/12/half-of-america-id-kill-to-protect-my-own/?cat_orig=us

"Nearly half of Americans would expect serious, sustained life-threatening civil unrest within two weeks of a major catastrophe, such as an EMP attack that would destroy electronics, according to a new poll."

"Remarkably, 21 percent said they would survive without services provided by electronic power less than a week and another 28 percent believed they could last less than two weeks. Three in four Americans say they would be dead in two months."

"27 percent said they think that it would take less than a week before either they or someone in their immediate family would be physically attacked by someone desperate for food, money, or commodities, or by someone taking advantage of social chaos. Another 24 percent said it would happen within two weeks of a catastrophe."

Wow, I need to go prep more....
:flail:

 

[swissaustrian]

With a global supply chain, things get ugly very quick. If you're driving on a highway anywhere in the developed world and you're seeing all the trucks loaded with consumer goods, just imagine if they weren't coming for a few days. Most stores have just-in-time ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_in_time_(business) ) supply chain management programs today, i.e. they basicly don't store any reserves. That means:
Empty grocery stores everywhere within days, no gasoline, maybe no electricity...
... and on the top of it: No welfare for the welfare queens and kings. They're going to be totally helpless :flail:

 

[pmbug]

I can tell you that in the aftermath of Hurricane Ike, the roads were getting pretty nasty near the only gas station that was open and rumored to be selling gas and/or ice after day 3 without power (and gas and groceries). And that was with a fraction of the normal population as the only people around were the preppers who didn't evacuate when they were asked to (recommended but not mandatory). It was also with an understanding that power, gas, groceries and ice would all be returning to normal availability in the near term.

With a normal population (saturation) and no clear idea *if* much less *when* such necessities might be restored, I can definitely see civilization devolving at a rapid pace. As I've said before, civilization is a thin veneer.

 

[ancona]

As PMBug pointed out, folks go feral pretty quickly when the shit hits the fan. Here in Florida, as in Texas, when hurricanes hit it is always amazing how many people have zero in the way of preps. In my little 'burg, we lose power if a pigeon farts, so electrical generators are pretty common now. They never did get our infrastructure quite right after Charley, Frances and Jeanne. I am the only one in a fifteen block area with a whole house, propane powered generator with a decent supply of fuel. I have a neighbor a few houses over who has a 7.kW generator that uses those ubiquitous bar-b-q tanks, with the reasoning that in a true emergency fuel will be easier to source. While I doubt anyone will be willing to give up any fuel sources post SHTF, I do have a petcock teed in to my main gas line for the grill. With the regulator attached to the grill, I can remove it from the line and back-feed my line with a little pony tank if it came down to it I suppose, but I'd rather rely on my big tank to supply me. We have three 50 gallon back-up cylinders in the shed, which gives me a number of extra days power.

With our wonderful just-in-time supply chain broken, it is a matter of three days before store shelves are stripped bare, although I rather believe it is but a matter of hours myself. What globalism has done is to remove production of many of our foods to other countries, making it impossible to source those items in a collapse. Those who have food stored up will need to fly well below the radar until the natives get weak from hunger or get moved in to FEMA camps.

I find it quite pathetic that people believe they cannot survive without their precious iGadgets. How absolutely comical. That just shows me how far over the edge of the abyss we truly are.

 

[ADK]

I'm pretty far north from NYC (over 200 miles) and in between a few small cities nearly 15 to 20 minutes away. I'm relatively confident that those who rely on iGadgets and food stamps won't even make it out of the cities and up my way.

I'd most likely have to be careful about the other saavy, yet undesirable neighbors.

Ancona: What's the plan when the tanks run out? Just curious... Would you bug out by then?

ADK

 

[ancona]

I am sitting on 19 solar panels I salvaged while at Johnson Space Center working on the Crew Exploration Vehicle Avionics Integration Laboratory. Hurricane Ike destroyed all but twenty panels set up on racks for the Mars Habitat that we demolished, so in exchange for scrapping out the racks I got to keep the remaining viable panels. There were sixty six or sixty seven, but only twenty survived, and I broke one of those.

My county government is as useless as a box of six pound rocks, and requires me to do all sorts of engineering and submit stamped drawings showing my roof can bear the weight, the wiring is designed and installed correctly, etc. Then, I have to get permits, etc. etc.

Fuck all that. When the balloon goes up, I'll just go cowboy on them and do what I have to do.

 

[ADK]

Good call --- and nice pick-up on the panels!

Solar isn't the best bet up here in NY, but it would work to run some small items. Running a whole household is another story.

As I am sitting here thinking... maybe some sort of electric generator run on steam would work for me!! I've never thought of it before, but I'll be burning wood for heat and water sourcing isn't a problem. And, boiling water is part of my safe-water plan.

ADK

 

[ancona]

I don't know ADK, these are 24V nominal which peak at 38V and each is rated around 3.85 amps. That's a lot of power. I suggest you speak with rental companies in your area, because sometimes they will have cracked panels from automatic road signs that have to be replaced per DOT, but are still serviceable.

 

[Jay]

I can tell you that in the aftermath of Hurricane Ike, the roads were getting pretty nasty near the only gas station that was open and rumored to be selling gas and/or ice after day 3 without power (and gas and groceries). And that was with a fraction of the normal population as the only people around were the preppers who didn't evacuate when they were asked to (recommended but not mandatory). It was also with an understanding that power, gas, groceries and ice would all be returning to normal availability in the near term.

With a normal population (saturation) and no clear idea *if* much less *when* such necessities might be restored, I can definitely see civilization devolving at a rapid pace. As I've said before, civilization is a thin veneer.

we are nine missed meals away from anarchy.

 

[ancona]

My family will be around 1,095 meals from anarchy
; - )

 

[Jay]

With a global supply chain, things get ugly very quick. If you're driving on a highway anywhere in the developed world and you're seeing all the trucks loaded with consumer goods, just imagine if they weren't coming for a few days. Most stores have just-in-time ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_in_time_(business) ) supply chain management programs today, i.e. they basicly don't store any reserves. That means:
Empty grocery stores everywhere within days, no gasoline, maybe no electricity...
... and on the top of it: No welfare for the welfare queens and kings. They're going to be totally helpless :flail:

I don't think they are going to be helpless. I think they are going to be extremely dangerous. There is a certain entitlement mentality I see every day at the grocery i have worked for for the last thirteen years. The food stamp crowd that shops every day in their pajamas, and RESENTS having to pay cash for anything not allowed on their EBT card. I live in a small town of 5000, and we are feeding 10,000 people a day from my one store (surrounding county comes here). Let me say that again:

10,000 people. 10,000 people. 10,000 people. 10,000 people 10,000 people. 10,000 people. 10,000 people. 10,000 people.

Not that many people in the store each day, thats closer to 2000. They are buying for 10,000 people. I haven't talked to very many people in the last decade who realize how many people are getting their food at our store. Most folks think just a few people a day are in the store. We get nine 58 foot trailers A DAY of food. When there is a supply interruption, the shelves empty quickly. There is no backstock, no wareroom full of food. Its all JIT.
During Hurricane Katrina and then Ike, both a thousand miles away, people were having fistfights on the bread isle over the last loaves of bread. One conversation I overheard:
One customer: I can't believe the people here in Burnet are so greedy they didn't leave any bread for the refugees.
Other customer: I live in Houston, thats where the bakery is. They evacuated us also.

This is going to be bad. I'm not being alarmist, only factual. On my street along, most of the people are either elderly (80ish) or on welfare. I can only think of three households on my block where someone actually has a job. The section 8 house two doors down has ten people on food stamps; someone there is working cause I see the rent-a-cop drive by from time to time.

 

[DoChenRollingBearing]

Great thread guys.

Holy moly, Jay! 10,000 people for one grocery store... I hope that you are ready to rock, you know, after hour sales, the day before the tsunami of people roll in if the SHTF.

***

I really, really hope it does not get that ugly. Like I have mentioned before, we are essentially ready for a Great Depression v. 2, but if we get a really bad SHTF (the dreaded TEOTWAWKI), thten I guess the two of us are dead after a month, two at most.

Unless we make it here to Lima, where there is lots of slack in the system. It never gets really hot nor cold here. They are always able to get the food into the city, the same was true in their earthquake a few years ago near Ica, food came in...

 

[mike]

It depends on where the SHTF. In <redacted - see forum guidelines on epithets>got states, like California, there will be blood in the streets, as we've seen during riots in the past. In awesome states like Texas, most people know you will get shot in the face if you step out of line.

 

[ancona]

Actually Mike, here in Florida, many of us are pretty damn conservative and have plenty of firearms to protect ourselves. I find that the "dependent" taker class priamrily lives and consumes government resources near the large urban centers. Think Jacksonville, Miami, Tampa and Orlando. Florida is a weird sort of spread out kind of state, with lots of sparsely populated areas and lots of relatively lightly populated ones. Our area is near the Space Center, but far enough away from dense population to give us a fighting chance against the Golden Horde.

 

[rblong2us]

Hey Jay

why not give your 10k hoard some training ..........
Big price increases for a couple of weeks
short order the fast moving lines

Tell em why (-;

Then they just might think a bit more about where their entitlement comes from

otherwise, if tshtf, back your truck up and get the hell outta there ...........

 

[Jay]

Hey Jay

why not give your 10k hoard some training ..........
Big price increases for a couple of weeks
short order the fast moving lines

Tell em why (-;

Then they just might think a bit more about where their entitlement comes from

otherwise, if tshtf, back your truck up and get the hell outta there ...........

Hey RB, I've long given up on explaining anything to these people. All they care about is their fork. We lost power last year cause an ice storm caused a truck to take out the towns main power pole, it was 20 degrees outside so we just opened all the doors to the store and let the cold come inside (no refrigeration). People took shopping carts full of groceries; no one tried to stop them. When the store hadn't opened in 24 hours, people drove by and cussed out whoever was stationed at the front door to let the public know we were still closed. ALL they care about is themselves. It will be brutal.

PS, if everything collapses, and I have any warning, I'm sooooo gone.

 

[gold getter]

If SHTF it will get ugly quick. With in days. Id say less than a week. Soon as people go 2-3 days without any fix in sight, they will panic. Store will be mobbed. Banks will be robbed. It will be first come, first serve, second, and third killed. Precious Metals will become saught after not paper money. I believe that because gold and silver have been around for ever. People will not want to trade food or weapons for anything so they have to have some sort of valuable trade. Buy Gold now while the price is low, Best Deals and info i found was here: http://whatisthecostforgold.com

 

[Jay]

has anyone noticed the uptick in "Obamas going after the guns now" threads on the net?

 

[ancona]

I have. It's been only a few hours, yet they are coming out of the woodwork.

 

[DoChenRollingBearing]

Holiday time is a great time for preparations, at least THIS one in 2012. My wife just gave me my Christmas present: a basic & solid bicycle (EMP-proof local transportation!), I will put a second basket on it (on a rack over the rear wheel) to haul more stuff... A work bike!

Next up is MY Xmas present to me! (I still have yet to hear from her tell me what SHE wants...). My present to me will be an M1A rifle (.308 = 7.62 mm * 51) with a good scope. Tomorrow (Monday) I go out and buy MORE AMMO, as I see the same thing as you guys (Jay and ancona): more talk about a HARD crackdown on guns.

On a somewhat related topic, an outdoor gun range not too far away that will allow us to shoot up to 500 yards is opening soon! I have no pretensions about becoming a crack-shot with my Next Gun (the .308), but I would like to be able to hit the target consistently, say, at 200 yards or so.

:wave: :wave:

 

[rblong2us]

my suggestion with guns, would be to create a kind of cross referencing system, where other gun holders have to ensure the mental wellbeing of their two referees.

So if things got a bit messy at home they would be pursuaded to give their guns to their referees, until they were 'of sound mind' again.

If a licenceholder was to do something stupid, their referees would loose their gun licence. A powerful form of self regulation and everyone still entitled.

This could address some of the lone nutjobs and would have all gunholders taking responsibility for more than just themselves.

I know the right to bear arms is very deeply ingrained in some countries and I am aware that this right is fiercly protected.

I just offer a bit of self policing ........

 

[DCFusor]

RB, in many places, some of what you suggest is already there. When I first wanted to start getting into guns, I found a local shop, nice people hanging out in it, decent prices. "For some reason" they couldn't sell me any guns - the background check line was down, it was promised to someone else, some reason.

They needed to get to know me first, then suddenly, I had access to anything I wanted, and most often at a fairly steep discount. The owner and his pals just needed to be sure I wasn't "hinky" in some way (I don't look the part of a responsible gun guy, to be sure). Once they decided I was alright, it was smooth sailing all the way.

Think about it this way - I know I do - I'd NEVER want to sell someone a gun if I had the slightest idea they would misuse it - I'd feel responsible myself for "enabling" them to do bad things. I have in fact refused to sell guns several times to people I didn't think should have them. "For some reason", often not the stated one.

That doesn't cover all the bases, but it's a start. You can't control what happens to someone after, sometimes long after, or who they might sell to. Or a gun you sell to someone, legit, might not be protected well enough and be stolen and misused. In fact, a large fraction of crime guns are in that category - stolen.

This junk about the "gun show loophole" in which any gun owner can sell to any other - at a gun show, or heck, the parking lot of the grocery store or across the fence in your yard - is BS, pure and simple, if you look at the guns used in crimes and rampage shooting - that's not where they came from.

Heck, in the current case (though the details, some important, have changed 3 times since the initial report as someone is working on the right "spin") was a case of a parent buying legit guns to take to the range with her kid in a kind of "bonding" experience, much like some families do other things - camping for instance - or Dad will get into go-kart racing with his son for the same sort of reason.

There are zero laws imaginable that would have stopped that, even if actually enforced, which most gun laws are not, as letting tragedies happen is on the agenda of those who wish to disarm the good people to cement their power more thoroughly.

In the US, depending on who is asked, there are about 300 million guns - about one per person. Threaten to take them away, and less than half will be confiscated. The rest will be buried in PVC pipe to sell later on the black market. You'd think our experiences with prohibitions of other kinds, that gave us the Mafia and drug cartels would tell reasonable people something - that trying to prohibit anything a big fraction of people want is counterproductive, but here we are - looking at doing the same thing again but expecting different results - the definition of insanity.

I'm sure it would get ugly in cities on JIT supplies in just a couple days. But where I live, everyone is "ready" anyway - natural course of events means you have last year's produce canned, all the tools to make more food, helpful, ready neighbours who think alike. Most could handle a few months without the outside world entirely, it's just the norm for truly rural living. We mostly wouldn't even know without the news or going to the store for those few things people don't really stock up on - booze, tobacco, etc.