Venezuela troubles (currency, economy and potential FAFO)

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There seems to be a lot happening with Venezuela right now. Decent overview published here:
...
Mr. Maduro, who assumed the presidency after the death of his mentor, Hugo Chávez, in 2013, has overseen a drastic unraveling of the economy in Venezuela — once one of the region’s most prosperous countries — largely as a result of mismanagement and corruption.

But he has centralized power in the executive branch, tamping down on dissent through violence and intimidation, and winning the loyalty of the military by giving it control of lucrative industries.

In 2017, as protests mounted, Mr. Maduro sidelined the opposition-controlled legislature, the National Assembly, by ordering the creation of a new legislative body, known as the Constituent Assembly, which was asked to rewrite the Constitution. He jailed prominent members of the opposition, leaving it largely ineffective for many months.

In May 2018, Mr. Maduro won re-election to a new six-year term in the midst of a financial and humanitarian crisis. Coercion and vote rigging were widely reported. By the time of his inauguration on Jan. 10, many countries did not recognize his new term as legitimate, including the United States, Canada and a dozen Latin American nations.
...
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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/24/world/americas/maduro-guaido-venezuela.html

The newly elected leader of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó declared himself interim President according to the tenets of the original Venezuelan constitution (when they are without a legit President).

Here now is where it gets sticky:
...
President Trump issued a statement, minutes after Mr. Guaidó declared himself interim president, recognizing him as the country’s leader and calling the National Assembly the “only legitimate branch of government duly elected by the Venezuelan people.” The United States has not ruled out the use of military force.

Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Denmark, Paraguay, Peru and the Organization of American States have also recognized Mr. Guaidó as the country’s leader.

Mr. Maduro moved quickly on Wednesday to cut diplomatic ties with the United States and order American diplomats to leave the country. He accused the Trump administration of orchestrating a plot to overthrow him.

Other nations have stood by Mr. Maduro. Russia reiterated its support for his government on Wednesday, as did Bolivia.
...
Click to expand...

Remember, both Russia and China have negotiated some heavy investment deals with Maduro involving Venezuela's gold mining and oil sectors. If Guaidó is successful in ousting Maduro, and especially if it's with USA military support, and then nullifies those deals, the Venezuelan story could become a more global issue.
 
We probably need to stay out of this from a military standpoint, and maybe just let Colombia and Brazil handle it. We can quietly give them all the support they need, but we need to stay out of the picture. There is no need to piss off both Russia and China right now, that's for damn sure.
 
yes

another opportunity to pick a fight with Russia .........

See how bad they are. They show us up in Syria, we will not let that happen again.
 
Looks like things are going to come to a head pretty soon. No one wants to lend these guys money any more, and they can't seem to get their hands on any dollars to import the food they need, so the people are fucking starving. This will not end well for anyone e. The army generals may be loyal, but starving soldiers with loaded magazines may just decide to take matters in to their own hands and take those generals out and make some decisions on their own. I'm reading more and more articles that speak about the high rates of desertions among the rank and file, and those deserting are not leaving their weapons behind. I think an armed insurrection may be close at hand.

If they can damage enough heavy artillery, fuck up enough jets and get enough soldiers to join them, this is a no brainer. However, if they start this thing, they had better damn well have enough people on their side to finish it. And, they had better take out enough high ranking officers to put the fear of God in Maduro's soul. If they do that, Maduro will definitely run, because he is a pussy, there is absolutely no doubt about that.
 
The UK joined the USA et. al. in supporting Guaidó's legitimacy claim and the BOE is still holding on to Venezuela's gold. Guaidó is asking them not to give the gold to Maduro.

The U.K. government said it is up to the Bank of England to decide what to do with the “significant amount” of gold it is holding under contract for the embattled Venezuelan regime of Nicolas Maduro.

“This is a decision for the Bank of England, not for government,” Foreign Office Minister Alan Duncan told Parliament Monday during an urgent question on Venezuela. ...
...
The U.K. followed the U.S. and other countries last week in recognizing Guaido as the legitimate president of Venezuela. When asked if the government would consider further sanctions against Venezuelan individuals including the military, Duncan answered it would consult with international partners “on how to approach the issue.”
Click to expand...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...of-venezuela-s-gold-up-to-the-bank-of-england
 
A group of major European nations recognized Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as the country's interim president on Monday, urging him to hold free and fair elections.

The coordinated move came after President Nicolas Maduro ignored a demand set by some EU nations last week to call snap elections by the end of Sunday. Spain, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands all said they would recognize Guadio as the legitimate Venezuelan leader.
...
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https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/04/americas/europe-guaido-venezuela-president-intl/index.html

I suppose the UK's position will give the BoE cover for refusing Maduro's request on repatriating Venezuela's gold.
 
PMBug said:
So you might remember back in October of 2017, Venezuela let a gold swap with Deutsche Bank lapse (as mentioned here). Apparently, they continued to load gold to DB and recently actually paid off one of those loans ...
Click to expand...

That was from January.

Venezuela has defaulted on a gold swap agreement valued at $750 million with Deutsche Bank AG, prompting the lender to take control of the precious metal used as collateral and close out the contract, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter.

As part of a financing agreement signed in 2016, Venezuela received a cash loan from Deutsche Bank and put up 20 tons of gold as collateral. The agreement, which was set to expire in 2021, was settled early due to missed interest payments, said the people, who asked not to be named speaking about a private matter.

In the meantime, opposition leader Juan Guaido’s parallel government has asked the bank to deposit $120 million into an account outside President Nicolas Maduro’s reach, which represents the difference in price from when the gold was acquired to current levels. ...
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...id-to-default-on-gold-swap-with-deutsche-bank

Oh Venezuela... :flushed:
 
The UN has accused Venezuela of a strategy of instilling fear in its population to retain power, removing opponents with a "shocking" number of alleged extrajudicial killings.

Victims are arrested and shot, with crime scenes manipulated to suggest they resisted police, a report says.
...
Some four million people have fled Venezuela since 2015, according to the UN ...
...
The report is scheduled to be presented to the UN Human Rights Council on Friday.

It is based on "558 interviews with victims and witnesses of human rights violations and the deteriorating economic situation" from January 2018 to May 2019.

Its most damning findings relate to the number of deaths the Venezuelan government has ascribed to resisting arrest.

That figure for last year was 5,287, with another 1,569 up to 19 May this year.
...
On accusations of torture it says detainees have been subjected to "one or more forms of torture or cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment, including electric shocks, suffocation with plastic bags, water boarding, beatings, sexual violence, water and food deprivation, stress positions and exposure to extreme temperatures".
...
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48873500
 
U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a freeze on all Venezuelan government assets in the United States on Monday, sharply escalating an economic and diplomatic pressure campaign aimed at removing socialist President Nicolas Maduro from power.
...
Trump said in a letter to Congress the freezing of assets was necessary “in light of the continued usurpation of power by the illegitimate Nicolas Maduro regime, as well as the regime’s human rights abuses, arbitrary arrest and detention of Venezuelan citizens, curtailment of free press, and ongoing attempts to undermine Interim President Juan Guaido.”

His executive order also threatened sanctions against anyone assisting Maduro or his loyalists, suggesting that Washington could resort to so-called secondary sanctions against third-country companies and individuals.
...
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...on-venezuelan-government-assets-idUSKCN1UW03C

Sanctions for everyone!
 
The fight over Venezuela's gold rages on apparently. The BoE is still holding the gold and the courts are trying to suss out the legitimacy of Maduro's claim on it.
...
Monday’s decision, however, granted the Maduro-backed BCV appeal, sending the case back to the High Court to determine a “more definitive answer” to whether:

(1) [the UK] recognizes Mr. Guaidó as President of Venezuela for all purposes and therefore does not recognize Mr. Maduro as President for any purpose; or

(2) [the UK] recognizes Mr. Guaidó as entitled to be the President of Venezuela and thus entitled to exercise all the powers of the President but also recognizes Mr. Maduro as the person who does in fact exercise some to all of the powers of the President of Venezuela.
...
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www.jurist.org

UK court reverses judgment in Venezuela gold controversy

In a dispute over who is entitled to almost USD $2 billion in gold warehoused at the Bank of England, the English Court of Appeal on Monday overturned an earlier High Court ruling on whom the UK offic...
www.jurist.org www.jurist.org
 
I guess this just bolsters the saying, "If you don't hold it, you don't own it."
 
the rule of law is over, the concept of ownership of property is overturned by 'rules based' western governments.

first they came for the gold and the foreign deposits then the superyachts, then they came for your savings ......
 
HOUSTON, (Reuters) – U.S. oil company Chevron Corp CVX.N is sending two oil tankers to Venezuela, one of which will load the first cargo of crude destined for the United States in nearly four years, according to a person familiar with the matter and shipping data.

On Friday, a Chevron-chartered vessel approached the South American country’s waters to pick up a cargo of Venezuelan crude. A second tanker carrying a cargo of diluents to a Chevron oil joint venture is due to arrive in Venezuela early next month, the person said.

gcaptain.com

Chevron Sending Two Oil Tankers To Venezuela Under U.S. Approval

By Marianna Parraga HOUSTON, (Reuters) – U.S. oil company Chevron Corp CVX.N is sending two oil tankers to Venezuela, one of which will load the first cargo of crude destined for the United States...
gcaptain.com gcaptain.com
 
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said in an interview broadcast Sunday that he is willing to work towards normalizing relations with the United States, despite the continued sanctions crippling his country.

Maduro's remarks come days after the South American country's opposition voted to dissolve an "interim government" led by Juan Guaido, who had been recognized by many countries -- including the United States -- as Venezuela's legitimate leader following disputed 2018 elections.

www.barrons.com

Venezuela Leader Says Willing To Work At Normalizing US Ties

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said in an interview broadcast Sunday that he is willing to work towards normalizing relations with the United States, despite the continued sanctions crippling his country.
www.barrons.com www.barrons.com
 
ancona said:
This is the end for Venezuela. Expect a revolution before too long. Once all those poor people who voted for Maduro are starving and wiping their asses with leaves they will realize that they've finally run out of other peoples money. Their oil industry is in complete collapse and there is no telling how much of the production is being skimmed off by insider cronies. Before Chavez, the country was one of the better off nations of SA, now, they're reverting to banana republic.
Click to expand...
Maduro LOST the last election. Another election swipe will lead to a populous uprising. Instead of fiat laying in the streets it will be blood.
And the world follows Uganda is broke, Turkey waivers, Geece is on EU welfare, Italy wants to leave the EU.....
 
The US lost!

Juan Guaidó, another failed regime change reaches its conclusion​

13m
 
The problem is most people in government are corrupt. You can't tell who are the good guys anymore no matter what country.
 
From the link:
Here is a list of tankers sailing between the US and Venezuela this month:

  • Sealeo, laden with 500,000 barrels of Hamaca crude, is expected to arrive in Pascagoula next week
  • Kerala, carrying 250,000 barrels of Boscan oil, also is scheduled to arrive in Pascagoula next week
  • UACC Eagle discharged about 600,000 barrels of US heavy naphtha in Venezuela last week
  • ICE Fighter arrived in Lake Maracaibo where the Bajo Grande terminal is located
  • Carina Voyager arrived in Venezuela to load 500,000 barrels of Hamaca oil, bound for Phillips 66 refinery



gcaptain.com

Chevron Expands Venezuelan Crude Sales To Other Oil Refiners

By Lucia Kassai (Bloomberg) –Chevron Corp. sold a cargo of Venezuelan oil to another US refiner in the first such transaction since sanctions against the Latin American nation were eased less than two...
gcaptain.com gcaptain.com
 
Since when does Trinidad or Tobago need a US license to do anything?

A license is permission to do that which would otherwise be illegal. Do we have laws that other independant nations are subject to?
 
Joe King said:
Since when does Trinidad or Tobago need a US license to do anything?
Click to expand...

Let's explore:

From the article:

Under U.S. sanctions, companies and governments must obtain authorization from the U.S. Treasury Department to do business with PDVSA. The Biden administration has granted only a few such licenses since taking office in January 2021, mostly on a heavily restricted basis.

Looks like the answer to your question is in the article. Lots more neat stuff there. Check it out.
 
searcher said:
Under U.S. sanctions, companies and governments must obtain authorization from the U.S. Treasury Department to do business with PDVSA
Click to expand...
So apparently Trinidad and Tobago are our bitches?

If so-called "independant nations" need a license from us, then they obviously are not independent nations.
 
Joe King said:
If so-called "independant nations" need a license from us, then they obviously are not independent nations.
Click to expand...
That's the power of SWIFT and the world reserve currency (clearing international trade through New York banks).
 
pmbug said:
That's the power of SWIFT and the world reserve currency (clearing international trade through New York banks).
Click to expand...
Hence the push for de-dollarization we see all around the World.
 
From the link:

The United States is on track to receive nearly 3 million barrels of crude oil from Venezuela this month, according to shipping documents seen by Reuters.

Chevron is on track to ship 100,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude oil per day into the United States as part of a license it received from the U.S. Treasury Department that gives it a limited pass to move sanctioned oil, after a three-year ban.

oilprice.com

U.S. To Receive 3 Million Barrels Of Venezuelan Crude Oil In February | OilPrice.com

The United States is on track to receive nearly 3 million barrels of crude oil from Venezuela this month, according to shipping documents seen by Reuters
oilprice.com oilprice.com
 
March 13 (Reuters) – Venezuela’s state-run oil company PDVSA on Monday was loading a supertanker with crude and fuel for Cuba, maritime documents showed, an unusually large volume to help its political ally overcome an energy crisis with repeated blackouts.

gcaptain.com

Venezuela to Ship Oil to Cuba on Blacklisted Supertanker

By Marianna Parraga March 13 (Reuters) – Venezuela’s state-run oil company PDVSA on Monday was loading a supertanker with crude and fuel for Cuba, maritime documents showed, an unusually large volume to help...
gcaptain.com gcaptain.com
 
A mix of US aggression and Venezuelan opposition incompetence/collusion has all but sealed the fate of the Caribbean nation’s most valued foreign asset: CITGO. In the coming weeks and months, foreign corporations could break up and seize the company.

In this infographic we look at how Venezuela’s US-based refiner got to this point, the present threats and upcoming scenarios.

venezuelanalysis.com

CITGO: A Multi-billion Dollar Heist?

A compact infographic on Venezuela's US-based oil subsidiary CITGO detailing the roadmap that led to its looming breakup.
venezuelanalysis.com venezuelanalysis.com
 
I call BS on the oil crypto. I also say Venezuela will announce new petroleum reserves in a proxy to increase that currency.
 
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — One startup lists as its address a small home in a working-class district in Venezuela’s capital whose owner has never heard of the firm. Another is a Hong Kong-based shell company created in 2020. Yet another belongs to a Spanish commodities trader indicted in the U.S. for allegedly helping Russian oligarchs launder ill-gotten profits.

They are among the dozens of obscure middlemen and go-betweens at the center of a new crackdown in Venezuela on corruption in the state-run oil industry that has government insiders scurrying for cover. At the same time, regular Venezuelans are asking how more than $20 billion in proceeds from oil shipments seemingly vanished.

apnews.com

Shadowy brokers walk off with billions in Venezuelan oil

Dozens of obscure brokers are at the center of a new crackdown in Venezuela on corruption in the state-run oil industry that has government insiders scurrying for cover. Meanwhile, regular Venezuelans are asking how more than $20 billion in proceeds from oil shipments seemingly vanished. The...
apnews.com apnews.com
 
Corruption in Venezuela is legendary and endemic. Many years ago, I was consulting at a refinery in the Carribean that was preparing for a large project. One of the contractors for the project was Mourik and I was sitting in a meeting room with the on-site Mourik honcho waiting for a meeting and we talked for a bit. He complained bitterly about the problems he was having mobilizing their heavy equipment (cranes, vacuum trucks, etc.) from Venezuela to the local site for the project. He said they had to bribe *everyone* along the way to transport their equipment across the country much less out of the country.
 
HOUSTON/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Valero Energy Corp, the second-largest U.S. oil refiner, is seeking Washington's permission to import Venezuelan crude, according to four people close to the matter, hoping for a repeat of the approval granted to Chevron Corp in November after a four-year ban.

news.yahoo.com

Exclusive-Refiner Valero seeks US approval to import Venezuelan oil -sources

HOUSTON/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Valero Energy Corp, the second-largest U.S. oil refiner, is seeking Washington's permission to import Venezuelan crude, according to four people close to the matter, hoping for a repeat of the approval granted to Chevron Corp in November after a four-year ban...
news.yahoo.com news.yahoo.com
 
HOUSTON, April 28 (Reuters) – Chevron Corp has stepped up sales of Venezuelan crude oil to rival U.S. refiners, adding PBF Energy Inc and Marathon Petroleum Corp to its list of customers for the crude, vessel tracking and loading schedules showed.

U.S. Gulf Coast refiners, which historically processed Venezuelan oil, have shown a renewed appetite for the heavy sour crude grade after Chevron late last year received authorization from the U.S. Treasury Department to expand its operations in Venezuela and resume oil shipments to the U.S. after a four-year pause.

gcaptain.com

Chevron Steps Up Venezuelan Crude Oil Sales to US Refiners

By Arathy Somasekhar and Marianna Parraga HOUSTON, April 28 (Reuters) – Chevron Corp has stepped up sales of Venezuelan crude oil to rival U.S. refiners, adding PBF Energy Inc and Marathon Petroleum Corp to its list...
gcaptain.com gcaptain.com
 
If the US does not start doing business the chinese will step in and take over. We already lost Brazil.
 
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