2025 Predictions - Chaos is a Ladder?

The 2024 Predictions thread was fun to revisit as the year draws to an end.

Feel free to share any prognostications for 2025 that you find interesting or make your own.

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This week, 176 retail investors participated in the Kitco News Silver Survey, with a near-majority of Main Street predicting the gray metal will challenge all-time highs in 2025.

84 retail traders, fully 48%, expect silver to trade above $40 per ounce next year, with $48 the all-time high set in March 2011. Another 20%, or 35 Main Street investors, predicted silver prices will trade between $35 and $40 in 2025, while only 10%, or 17 participants, expect silver to top out somewhere between $30 to $35. The remaining 40 retail traders, representing 23% of the total, think silver prices will drop back into the $22 to $30 per ounce range seen in 2023 and 2024.
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Many analysts expect gold prices to hit $3,000 an ounce next year, but the rally is not expected to materialize until the second half of 2025. At the same time, with prices consolidating around $2,650 an ounce, next year's target would represent roughly a 13% gain compared to this year's nearly 30% rally.
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Personally, at the start of 2024, I felt pretty confident in making some predictions - I felt like I had a decent handle on how things would play out over the year. Today, I have much less confidence on what is going to happen in 2025. I feel like there is a greater chance for chaos to reign and disrupt markets and economies. A lot can happen even just between now and Jan 20 (Trump's inauguration) with the Biden admin trying to force America into full commitment to war in various theaters. Even so, I'll take a stab at a few predictions:

• Biden admin will try to escalate conflicts into American war commitments. Putin and Iran will risk looking weak to their domestic audience in resisting escalations until Trump takes office. Trump will de-escalate if Putin/Iran are reasonable in negotiations. WWIII will not happen in 2025.
• The Fed will be at odds with the Trump administration. Trump will try to (1) handcuff the Fed in CBDC development and (2) shake up the governing board. Trump will also try to pressure the Fed on interest rate policy. I expect the Fed will push back. They might even be imprudent with monetary policy to push the economy into a recession. I hope not, but I consider it a possibility. In any event, they appear to be trying to walk a tightrope currently with cutting rates to prevent a doom loop with the interest on Federal debt while trying not to stoke inflation too much. I suspect (treasury) markets, inflation and global trade (dedollarization) are going to make the Fed's game of Shoot the Moon increasingly more difficult. The risk of something breaking will be high in 2025.
• Central banks will continue buying gold in 2025. Retail (gold ETFs) can't get much more bearish so I think gold is probably near it's 2025 bottom right now. Silver is where the potential fireworks might explode. If China's silver buying is legit and the structural deficit we hear about is legit, maybe the dam bursts in 2025. I say 2025 is the year. That's just a gut feeling - not based upon rigorous analysis of the silver industry.
• The current run of "Bitcoin euphoria" will reach a nadir at some point after the middle of 2025. Trump's admin will bring regulatory clarity to the crypto space and investment and innovation in the sector will explode. Alt coins are going to see the lion's share of the benefit from this change. Bitcoin will continue to see strong investment interest, but at as the sector as a whole matures, institutional investor interest will start to be more discerning about the growth potential for alt coin projects that provide use cases for real world utility. The competition for a crypto platform to be a consensus winner as a potential (transactional) currency will be even more intense in 2025. Cross-chain bridging solutions (allowing value to flow from one crypto to another securely and seamlessly) are going to mature and be integrated in the background for multichain wallet platforms. Crypto is going to get much easier for the lay person to acquire and use. The sector should see very strong growth overall.

Jeremy Siegel’s 2025 Economy Forecast – Wharton Business Daily Interview​

Dec 28, 2024 #useconomy #stockmarket #fed

In an interview on Wharton Business Daily, Wharton School Professor Emeritus of Finance Jeremy Siegel looks back at 2024 and provides his 2025 economic forecast, making predictions for what we might expect from the Fed, interest rates, inflation, the U.S. economy, and the stock market in the new year.

15:36

Topics and questions covered:
00:00 - Introduction
00:39 - Analysis of the markets in 2024
01:37 - Dynamics that could lead to lower investment returns
03:56 - Potential impact of Trump's tariffs and other policies
06:24 - Stock market forecast
08:34 - Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025
11:33 - How geopolitical factors impact economic forecast
13:38 - Cybersecurity, AI and other key areas to watch in 2025

Nothing to see, can listen in one tab, play around the forum in a different tab. 38 mins long. Take it fwiw (dyodd.)

Doug Casey's Crystal Ball For 2025: What Will Happen Next?​

Dec 11, 2024 Podcast Interviews - Expat Money Show

What if you had a crystal ball and could see ahead into the next year? Well, I may not have a crystal ball, but I do have my good friend Doug Casey, who I welcome back once again this year to peer into his crystal ball and share what he sees coming in the world of geopolitics and international investing in 2025.

Doug is the founder of International Man, a best-selling author known for his High Ground novel series, and a world-renowned speculator and libertarian philosopher. He has garnered a well-earned reputation for his controversial insights into politics, economics, and investment markets. Over the past few years, Doug has become a trusted friend and mentor. He’s always a blast to talk to, and I know you’ll agree!

For years I've been hearing stuff like this. Who knows, maybe this year. Nothing to see, can listen in one tab, play around the forum in a different tab.

Analyst Predicts $45 Silver! The Golden Age Of Commodities Is Near!​

Jan 10, 2025 #silver #gold #preciousmetals
SalivateMetal

Analyst makes a great case for Silver reaching up to $45 per ounce in 2025! There very well could be a commodity boom coming soon.

26:48