Alf Field: Gold Correction Is Over

[pmbug]

There is a strong probability that the correction in the price of gold has been completed. This article has four separate sections. They are:

1. The Elliott Wave (EW) justification for thinking that the correction in gold is over.
2. Why corrections happen in gold from a fundamental viewpoint.
3. The extent to which manipulation affects the gold price.
4. A possible “black swan” event that could trigger a gold price surge.

...

More: http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1326384300.php

 

[KMS]

Some interesting numbers in there. I'm wondering if he should/could have used more references for credibility? He was really only sourcing the BIS...

 

[DSAbug]

Alf doesn't put out publications very often. He is also saying that it's increasingly likely that the correction is over, not that it is with 100% certainty.

Regardless, we need a consolidation period whether it be here, higher or lower... We either have a run up around April or December. Everything else is just filler...

 

[pmbug]

Sinclair published a letter from Alf Field:

...
The bottom line is that we now have a really strong probability that the correction which started at $1913 on 23 August 2011 has been completed both in terms of Elliott waves and also in terms of time elapsed. If this is correct, the gold price should soon be expressing itself in violent upside action as it moves into the third of third wave which is still targeted to reach $4500.

http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/07/31/what-happened-to-gold-part-2/

 

[DoChenRollingBearing]

As far as I am concerned, physical gold is very cheap at $1600 and change. And through recent years I have read all kinds of price predictions. And anyone who has ever followed my short-term trades/predictions already knows that I am the "WOAT" (Worst Of All Traders). 75% of the time I buy gold, the price goes right down, either that very day or very soon thereafter... But, over the decades, my gold has done very well.

So, I do not let prices influence my gold purchases.

I buy when I have money come in. I get money, then some of that goes into gold. I do not even check the price, except just to know that the coin shop is not charging a too-high premium.

Is Alf Field right about his timing? I don't know. Is FOFOA ($55,000) right? I don't KNOW, but I suspect he is right. When will gold have its big move up? Don't know that either. But, I strongly suspect precious metals will have a HUGE RUN at some point, especially gold.

It is getting really hard to find safe places to put money. VERY HARD to find safe places that throw off income.

 

[DCFusor]

Adam Hewison (of Market Club) who is a pretty serious gold trader, thinks we're going to get another dip to the 1550 or so region before we take off. He's right often enough that I listen to him. He's not a PM bug, just a trader who covers gold and some other things in particular.

So far, longer term, debt ceiling and gold prices overlay pretty decently with only a few wiggles in gold that don't match right away - but it always catches up. Nothing I've seen as a predictor of anything in the markets has a track record this good, or even close.

 

[mmerlinn]

It is entirely possible that the correction is over.

However, I have seen NO confirmation of such. Until I see confirmation, like exceeding 1675 and staying above 1650 afterwards (both numbers subject to change DOWN as time goes on), I am operating on the assumption that we are still in a bear trend with no end in sight.

 

[pmbug]

It's deja vu all over again.

There is a high probability that the correction in the gold price that started in early October at $1797 has been completed.

All the minor waves are in place and the A and C wave portions are approximately equal at -$120 each. ...
...
Note that $1642 was also the 61.8% retracement level as well as the point where waves A and C would have been equal. That target of $1642 was not achieved, the lowest PM fix being $1650 on Dec 20, 2012. There was a slightly lower morning fix the next day, but there is enough evidence when combined with the Comex gold chart to conclude that the correction from $1797 has been completed.

Obviously a decline to below $1636 would render this analysis valueless and we would have to reconsider the situation. The PM fix on Jan 2, 2013 was $1693, so there is already some upward movement on the scale that one should now expect.

Once $1800 is taken out on the upside, the gold chart will look tremendous. A beautiful “cup and handle” base would then provide strong support for a vigorous upward climb in the precious metal. At this stage there is no reason to abandon the rough target of $4500 for this coming upward wave. Once we have the next upleg above $1800 in place, it will be possible to start refining this target.

It seems that gold is well set up for a spectacular year in 2013.
...

http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/01/02/gold-analysis-2013/

 

[DSAbug]

It's deja vu all over again.



http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/01/02/gold-analysis-2013/

It's funny because the correction back then played out very similar to how the correction played out this fall. Let's hope we rally $140 over the next 6 weeks like it did last time. Only this time, I hope we actually break through 1800.

 

[ancona]

Well, we certainly started out the new year in fine neurotic fashion. I hope this paper puke is over for now.

 

[ILOVETRADING]

You guys I'm saying this in the nicest way possible but you're wanting to believe it will based on what some guy says. He doesn't know anymore then the next guy. How many times this year have we heard the correction is over? From who? Credible people- right? Well, we're still at $30.

It's all staged. All of this. The previous run (could be a trap to get shorters in for another correction), this correction, you name it. Staged.

The sooner you realize that the better your calls will be. Gotta think like them to beat/play them.

I think silver will be at $28 again soon. BUT, who cares it's only another 8% - which is nothing for the long run.

 

[pmbug]

For someone who loves trading, you sure sound like a stacker. ffftt:

 

[DSAbug]

We might be at 28 today if the unemployment rate comes out around 7.6% Ofcourse that is a joke number no matter what but momentum is clearly still down.

 

[.snap]

We might be at 28 today if the unemployment rate comes out around 7.6% Ofcourse that is a joke number no matter what but momentum is clearly still down.

I was curious as to what was causing this dip.

 

[DoChenRollingBearing]

Well, I have no idea whether gold is in correction or not. And I really don't care much. Most of us here believe that gold and silver will go up a LOT as our financial problems overwhelm us. I am holding my gold (mostly) and other PMs come what may and will buy as income permits.

If gold goes down (whether suppressed or not), that will allow me to buy more. The longer it stays down, the more I will eventually buy. But, at some point gold will go up so much that I will feel VERY HAPPY with what I have done and will continue to have done.

On the other hand, if gold shoots to the moon (Alice...) soon, I have enough so that I will STILL be very happy...

So whatever happens (at least among those two scenarios above):

#Winning!

 

[ancona]

As the price falls, so then premiums rise. It is inevitable after all. No dealer in his right mind would buy silver eagles at 35 and sell them to me for 29, no one. Just like my LCS, every dealer is raising premiums up to their DCA for inventory and putting their vig on top of that. Period. These "lower prices" are illusory at best.

 

[pmbug]

Admitting your mistakes is a sign of integrity:

Late Friday afternoon in New York (April 12, 2013) gold plunged through the critical support level around $1525 level that has held resolutely since the start of this 19 month correction from $1900 in September 2011. In the process of this sudden drop, confidence in gold by long term investors has been badly shaken.

The sad thing is that this late afternoon selloff was an orchestrated event by people wishing to see the gold price lower so that they could cover short positions in the paper gold markets. Proof of this is that London PM fixing on Friday was $1535. Once the London physical market closed, the orchestrated selling in the paper markets gathered momentum. By the close of the Comex paper gold market, gold had dropped $60 in just the last couple of hours on very high volume.

This is not something new. Observers of the gold market have been aware of many other occasions where similar events on a smaller scale have taken place on Friday afternoons. There is little point getting one’s knickers in a knot about this because every short sale in the paper market has to be covered by a corresponding purchase in due course. Thus if people who bought into the selling spree simply hold onto their positions, a short squeeze will eventually develop as the short sellers try to cover their positions, causing the gold price to rise.

Often the physical markets come to the rescue as the lower prices generated by the Friday selloff sparks increased buying in the physical markets, helping to spur the recovery. The result is that the price of gold recovers fairly quickly after a Friday afternoon selloff. The coming week will show whether this happens again this time.

In January this year I published an article indicating that there seemed to be a reasonable chance that the long gold correction was over. That article indicated that if gold dropped below $1636, that the analysis was incorrect and that something else was happening. Gold did drop below $1636 and has continued to decline, proving that the January analysis was faulty.

At that time last January I had assumed that the rise from $1540 to $1790 in 2012 was the first upleg of the new bull market and that the correction to $1636 was the first minor correction of the new bull market. These were incorrect assumptions. The big correction from $1900 in September 2011 was still under way. The low had still to be reached.

In my Keynote speech to the Sydney Gold Symposium in 2011 I had a target of $1480 for the low of the expected correction. Despite several plunges into the low $1500’s, the price never achieved that $1480 target. The low price for Comex was $1523 and the lowest PM fixing was $1531 in late December 2011.

It bothered me from time to time that gold had not achieved my target. Now the late Friday selloff last week has driven the gold price to a closing level of $1477, finally reaching the target of $1480 set 19 months ago. What remains to be seen is whether this target holds and that the bull market resumes. The coming weeks should indicate what is happening.

What we need to look for is a swift recovery to above $1500 and an ongoing strong up-move in a truly impulsive manner. The fundamentals for holding gold are as strong as ever. ...

http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/04/14/gold-confidence-shaken/