AMERICA’S FAILING IRAN NUCLEAR POLICY: TIME FOR A COURSE ADJUSTMENT

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WOTR commentary:

AMERICA’S FAILING IRAN NUCLEAR POLICY: TIME FOR A COURSE ADJUSTMENT​

America’s inability to rein in Tehran’s nuclear program after exiting the 2015 nuclear deal — to halt the Islamic Republic’s subsequent accumulation of fissile material and to forge a “longer and stronger” deal — should prompt Washington to reassess its Iran policy. Such a reckoning should acknowledge that the United States has never used all of the implements in its policy toolkit to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions, while the tools it has generally relied on — diplomacy, sanctions, and (to a much lesser extent) the threat of force — are less effective today due to a shifting geopolitical landscape.

For now, it is unclear if ongoing stop-gap diplomacy to reach informal understandings with the Iranian leadership absent a formal deal will cause the Islamic Republic to curb its fissile material buildup indefinitely in return for the easing of sanctions on its oil exports. Furthermore, the Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza will almost certainly absorb the attention of U.S. policymakers for months to come. Yet policymakers will need to remain focused on halting Iran’s fissile material buildup while undertaking a long-term effort — using a broader policy toolkit than employed to date — to shape Tehran’s assessment of the risks, costs, and utility of nuclear weapons. The goal should be to dissuade and deter Iran from building a bomb, and thus to keep it kicking the (nuclear) can down the road.

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America’s Failing Iran Nuclear Policy: Time for a Course Adjustment - War on the Rocks

America’s inability to rein in Tehran’s nuclear program after exiting the 2015 nuclear deal — to halt the Islamic Republic’s subsequent accumulation of

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Report to Congress on Iran Nuclear Programs​

The following is the Oct. 31, 2023, Congressional Research Service report, Iran’s Nuclear Program: Tehran’s Compliance with International Obligations.

From the report​

Several U.N. Security Council resolutions adopted between 2006 and 2010 required Iran to cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) investigation of its nuclear activities, suspend its uranium enrichment program, suspend its construction of a heavy-water reactor and related projects, and ratify the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement. Iran did not comply with most of the resolutions’ provisions. However, Tehran has implemented various restrictions on, and provided the IAEA with additional information about, the government’s nuclear program pursuant to the July 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which Tehran concluded with China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. On the JCPOA’s Implementation Day, which took place on January 16, 2016, all of the previous resolutions’ requirements were terminated. The nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which the Council adopted on July 20, 2015, compose the current legal framework governing Iran’s nuclear program. The United States attempted in 2020 to reimpose sanctions on Iran via a mechanism provided for in Resolution 2231. However, the Security Council did not do so.

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https://news.usni.org/2023/11/01/report-to-congress-on-iran-nuclear-programs