Are we in the end game?

[pmbug]

So China just set the machines to max brrt:

Post in thread 'Chinese Reality Check'

Yesterday at 11:46 AM

That seems.. extreme.

• pmbug

The tweet above raises a good question. What comes next? What is China doing with such a massive increase to their money supply? Are they in the midst of fighting a TARP/QE style crisis? I hear all the time that their economy is a house of cards, but I'm not aware of any domino exposing such a dire, imminent risk to warrant that response.

I got to thinking (which is dangerous - I know), what if it's a response to the massive gold and silver metal flow to the USA over the last 2-3 months? What if China printed all that money to compete in buying as much of the shiny as they can? What if they don't care about the value of the RMB because gold and silver are all that is going to matter in the coming months...

 

[Voodoo]

Banks are in trouble. Remember the QUADRILLIONS of derivatives. No amount of printing is gonna fix that if it unwinds quickly.

 

[pmbug]

I knew I should have waited on posting that original China M1 chart:



I have no idea where to look to verify those numbers, but when I saw the second tweet, from a news outlet, I thought maybe it was legit. Le sigh. Sorry folks.

 

[pmbug]

China's updated formula for the M1 money supply, introduced in January 2025 by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), is as follows:

M1 = Currency in Circulation (M0) + Demand Deposits + Personal Demand Deposits + Prepaid Funds Held by Non-Bank Payment Institutions

Here’s a breakdown:

Currency in Circulation (M0): Physical cash (notes and coins) outside the banking system.

Demand Deposits: Funds in checking accounts held by businesses and institutions, accessible on demand.

Personal Demand Deposits: Funds in individual checking accounts, now explicitly included.

Prepaid Funds Held by Non-Bank Payment Institutions: Balances in digital wallets or prepaid accounts managed by entities like Alipay and WeChat Pay.

This change reflects the growing role of digital payments in China’s economy. The broader M2 aggregate, which includes M1 plus time deposits and other less liquid assets, remains unchanged in structure but incorporates the updated M1.

The chart is official data, they just changed how the numbers are calculated.