mmerlinn
Ground Beetle
This won't happen. There is no way that either Europe or the Muslim world will allow Russia to establish a strategic presence in the Mediterranean. Such an attempt would be dealt with militarily with a hot war.
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This is their gift to Russia -The planned outcome of this is that Cyprus will accept a bailout from Russia, giving Russia a strategic island & the Aphrodite gas field.
James Rickards said:#Russia will let the #Cyprus deal happen with a quid pro quo. #Gazprom gets first dibs on Cyprus nat gas; sells to #Germany. Circle complete
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•CYPRUS PRESIDENT: PARLIAMENT BELIEVES BAILOUT PLAN UNJUST, GOVERNMENT MAKING OTHER PLANS.
•CYPRUS PRESIDENT: PARLIAMENT WILL REJECT BAILOUT PLAN –MNI
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When euro-zone finance ministers meet in Brussels on Monday, a welcome guest will be missing. Christine Lagarde, 57, the French managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is currently unwilling to discuss giving aid money to ailing euro-zone member Cyprus. For some time now, the Americans in particular have been eyeing the IMF's involvement in Europe with suspicion, causing the Frenchwoman to hit the brakes time and again. "I have no mandate for that" is a statement that the euro-zone finance ministers have heard only too often from Lagarde.
As such, it remains to be seen whether the IMF will ultimately participate in a loan program for Cyprus. A number of countries, Germany first and foremost, have said that IMF participation is crucial. The statutes of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the euro zone's €700 billion ($931 billion) permanent backstop fund, stipulate that the IMF must rubber stamp a country's debt sustainability before any cash can flow.
But this time around, the IMF is hesitating. A member of the troika which is currently negotiating the bailout deal with the Cypriot government, the IMF has an entirely different notion as to how the program should look.
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Ambrose Evans-Pritchard said:One's first reflex is to gasp at the stupidity of the EU policy elites, but truth is that most EU officials handling the Cyprus crisis know perfectly well that their masters have just set the slow fuse on a powder keg – and they can only pray that it is slow.
The decision to expropriate Cypriot savers – even the poorest – was imposed by Germany, Holland, Finland, Austria, and Slovakia, whose only care at this stage is to assuage bail-out fatigue at home and avoid their own political crises.
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The EU creditor states have at a single stroke violated the principle that insured EU bank deposits of up $100,000 will be guaranteed come what may, and in doing so they have more or less thrown Portugal under a bus.
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They have demonstrated that the rhetoric of EMU solidarity is just hot air, that they will not force their own taxpayers to share a single cent of clean-up costs for the great joint venture of monetary union – in which northern banks, insurers, pension funds, and indeed governments, were complicit.
Their refusal to pay is entirely understandable in one sense – and if I were a German taxpayer, I would not care to swallow these losses either – but then the leaders of these creditor countries can hardly expect the world to believe that they will in fact do whatever it takes to hold EMU together. Quite obviously, they will not.
The sooner this is made clear, the better. The sooner they take the proper course of withdrawing from EMU and organise the break-up the euro in the least disruptive way, the sooner Europe can recover.
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What is clear is that Angela Merkel will not risk defeat in the elections in September by ceding a single vote to Social Democrats determined to hold her feet to the fire over a bail-out for "Russian oligarchs, money-launderers, and tax evaders" in Cyprus, or by ceding votes to the new anti-euro party Alternative fur Deutschland. She will look after her own political interests, and all the rest is humbug.
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The creditor powers appear to think that the contagion risk is manageable now that the ECB has its bond rescue mechanism in place for Spain and Italy. But they made just such an assumption when they imposed a haircut so cavalierly on private investors in Greece, only to precipitate a full-blown crisis across Club Med. And don't forget, the reason why Cyprus has gone belly up is because of the knock-on effect on Cypriot banks from the Greek haircuts.
It is far from clear that the ECB backstop for Italy still exists, given that there is no compliant government in Rome able to meet the rescue conditions.
Portugal is not safely out of the woods. Its slump has been deeper than expected. Its debt dynamics are nearing the danger zone faster than feared. Citigroup, Nomura, and many others think it almost certain that Portugal will need a second rescue, and probably debt-restructuring. What happens then? Are savers going to wait patiently for their own scalping as this becomes clearer?
As for Spain, we learn from leaks in the Spanish press that officials from the ECB and the Commission warned Eurogroup ministers that the raid on Cypriot savers posed a grave contagion risk to Spanish banks, threatening to set off deposit runs.
EMU commissioner Olli Rehn promised that there will be no losses imposed on depositors in other countries, but the decision will be made in Berlin, the Hague, Helsinki, Vienna. He has no authority to make such a pledge. He is just a civil servant.
The danger may not be immediate but if the economies of Portugal, Spain, and Italy languish through this year in deep slump with no green shoots of recovery starting to sprout in the second half – as many fear – this new dispensation will be tested. The fatal precedent of haircuts for depositors will start to matter a great deal. Hell hath no fury like a saver robbed.
several Bitcoin-related apps started spiking on the Spanish iPhone market over the weekend. Bitcoin Gold shot up in the Spanish iPhone Finance category from 498 to 72, and another app called Bitcoin Ticker zoomed from 526 to 52 in just one day. A leading service called Bitcoin App jumped from 194 to 151 between Friday and Sunday as Spaniards brooded over the Cyprus crisis.
That link does not seem to be working.
...interesting, I thought you guys were (effectively) pegged to the Euro? Seems that once SHTF, money printing powers are powerless, nah?EUR/CHF intraday, flight to safety:
Cyprus finance minister submits resignation: sources - MNSI #breaking
Technically we're floored at 1.20. Upside moves are allowed. The complacency of the last 10 weeks has briefly pushed EUR/CHF to 1.25 and short term Swiss government bonds out of negative interest rate territory. That has changed, too, over the last days....interesting, I thought you guys were (effectively) pegged to the Euro? Seems that once SHTF, money printing powers are powerless, nah?
Another Goldmanite cockroach is waiting to become FinMin?
... Parliament will go ahead and vote after all, but not in a good way as even the Cypriot ruling party, formerly the only party willing to vote Yes on the Bail-In, would abstain according to Dow Jones, which means there is no support at all in the Cypriot parliament for the deposit haircut proposal. ...
That link does not seem to be working.
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•CYPRUS BANK LEVY BILL DEFEATED WITH 36 VOTES AGAINST
•CYPRUS BANK LEVY BILL DEFEATED WITH 19 ABSTENTIONS
•CYPRUS PARLIAMENT VOTED IN SHOW OF HANDS IN NICOSIA
•ANASTASIADES FAILS TO SECURE VOTES FOR DEPOSIT LOSS BILL
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... the ECB uttered the magic words, saying it would provide "liquidity within existing rules." What this means is unclear, ...
http://ransquawk.com/headlines/cypr...ay-march-26th-according-to-sources-19-03-2013Cyprus banks could stay closed until Tuesday March 26th according to sources
Says:
- Capital-control plans necessary contingency for when banks open.
- Contingency plans include limit on daily bank transactions.
- Under capital-control plans border checks for cash over certain amount will be introduced.
- Cyprus banks could stay closed until Tuesday March 26th according to sources
- Plans are in place to fly in EUR notes from other countries to feed Cyprus ATMs.
- Control plans could be in place for weeks.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/314141114380730368Cypriot Govt MP Mario Mavrides tells BBC Newsnight if a deal with the Troika can't be found or Cyprus can't raise 6bn, they'll leave the Euro.
...remember what has happened to Greek & Italian Parliaments, when they started ruffing the feathers, and hinting at referendum, re: bank bailouts, etc? Reminder: they were replaced with Eurocrats.
http://ransquawk.com/headlines/280730Cyprus-Russia talks yield no result, to be continued, according to RIA
Says:
- Russia to continue talks with Cyprus today and tomorrow.
Update details:
- Despite this comment there has been recent market talk of a Cypriot deal with EUR 3bln from Russia linked to gas field and EUR 2bln from depositors - Unconfirmed
'Market talk’ – Signifies information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels and therefore is to be treated as unsubstantiated. Any interpretation of the talk is taken at the readers own risk and is a representation of the rumours within the market place and never generated by ourselves.
http://ransquawk.com/headlines/280732Cyprus central bank preparing law to curb deposit outflows and also preparing a law on bridge bank, according to CYBC
Says:
- Cyprus central bank laws are in event no solution found.
- Cyprus needs to find a solution by tomorrow.
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