Basel III: Gold to be considered for Tier 1 status

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Basel III is supposed to come into effect at the end of this month. I'm still seeing mixed reporting out there on what it means for banks and gold.
 
This is an old thread and I had pretty much forgotten about Basel3
I thought the TBTF banks had everything they needed )-:

So what does the mixed reporting suggest might happen Bug ?

and in reply to your previous post on this thread -

So, it seems that we understood it backwards - gold isn't going to be valued at 85%, it's going to be valued at 15%. 85% is the value of cash they need to hold in reserve to cover the value of the gold (in case the market/price crashed).

A great way to get gold holders to give up on the idea and buy it up at a sale price
They clearly will do pretty nasty and desperate things to obtain enough gold to keep the show on the road ?
 
...
So what does the mixed reporting suggest might happen Bug ?
...

Some suggest it means banks will be increasing gold holdings as it's a now a better asset. Others, as you quoted, suggest it's actually now a worse asset and will lead to banks selling off gold holdings.

I wish I could find a definitive source explaining the situation in clear language.
 
Here's another report on Basel III written by someone who sounds a lot like a gold bug, but which also describes the 85% haircut as requiring banks to hold more cash collateral for gold holdings:

http://bmg-group.com/gold-zero-risk-monetary-asset/

The author briefly mentions the NSFR issue then talks about how gold qualifies as “a 0% risk weighting for risk-based capital purposes.” It doesn't really explain what that means though.
 
Yeah, I'm not sure that author had all his facts straight. Initial reporting on Basel III (as per the OP of this thread) were indicating a tier 1 asset with 100% valuation as he mentions, but that changed.
 
Ok so if Basel III came into effect 11 days ago and the price of gold has moved $10 and is broadly where it was a month ago, what might we conclude from this ?
 
Well, if the gold price was actually based upon the physical market, we might be able to draw a conclusion. But it's not, so ... ???
 
But it's not, so .......

so the price of gold will not significantly increase until either:

1) Gold becomes scarce because the physical market gets very tight; and maybe Basel III has an impact on that due to heavy accumulation by central banks, or

2) TPTB want it to increase, and they might want it to increase now that gold has Tier1 status via Basel III.

Edit:
3) The price of oil rises significantly again for a sustained period.
 
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So we can conclude that Basel III has no effect on POG ?

why would TPTB want an increase in POG if they have to have cash deposits to 85% of its value

and how might they respond if POG were to rise rapidly ?

The cash deposit required to back gold holdings seems like a great way to suppress price )-:
 
Found this report from late January:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gold-regulation-nsfr-idUSKCN1PI12A
 
going back to this -
So, it seems that we understood it backwards - gold isn't going to be valued at 85%, it's going to be valued at 15%. 85% is the value of cash they need to hold in reserve to cover the value of the gold (in case the market/price crashed).

I find myself pondering if it doesnt mean that COMEX aqnd other futures markets would be obliged to hold 15% of the paper contracts as actual metal ?

This would be an interesting shift from the approx 0.5% they currently seem to hold.
 
I'm pretty sure the Basel III is a standard for the banking industry and doesn't have any bearing on the commodity exchanges. As the latest article above shows, the LBMA was concerned about how it will affects banks trading metals. It could potentially cause a liquidity crisis on the exchanges if the banks just close down their metal trading desks.

Should this happen, I suppose we might finally see a violent event where the futures/paper market no longer sets the price for the physical metal.
 
* bump *

Was reading back through this thread today while reflecting on recent news (bold emphasis is mine)...


https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-m...e-before-metals-closure-filings-idUKKBN22K1Q7

Basel III holla!
 
* bump *

Looks like this issue is back on the table...


 

More (long): https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-end-of-paper-gold-and-silver-markets

So much FUD. So little sunshine/clarity.
 
Tom Luongo has an interesting take on it


He sees it as something the Europeans need to happen.
I have a lot of time for Tom Luongo and always read his articles
He seems to see the big picture stuff better than most.
 
The biggest flaw that I see in Luongo's thesis is that the crypto crash is largely the result of actions by China which is presumably not an agent of the ECB/Davos crowd. China is trying to push their own CBDC non privacy coin on it's people.

Still, aside from the crypto comments, a planned gold jubilie to save the ECB is an interesting take. I would have to assume the Fed/USA would oppose this as it would likely destabilize/dethrone the dollar as capital flows to gold and not US Treasuries. Is the BIS throwing down a guantlet or is this really all coordinated by some big boys club?
 
Is the BIS throwing down a guantlet or is this really all coordinated by some big boys club?

perhaps we will find out or at least get an insight into any factional friction ..........
 
If the rules do stress the banks' gold trading desks, I expect we should start seeing fallout in July/August from a few Euro banks and around Jan/Feb for the UK banks. Will operational trading desks absorb the short positions of their exiting peers? Will the markets carry on until it can't? Or will we see some graduated lifts as paper shorts are liquidated?

I'm guessing we don't see much until 2022.
 
I've been thinking about this issue a lot. I'm inclined to disagree with Hugo on this point. The Basel 3 rules regarding gold weren't developed in response to any machinations within the last year. They were developed nearly a decade ago. The implementation deadline is just finally approaching.

I think back to how the world made accomodations for China to join the G20 and such. Rickards said years ago that central banks were keeping gold cheap to allow China to buy enough to have a proper gold-GDP ratio on par with USA/Europe. He wrote years ago that gold would likely be part of the NWO one way or another (planned or unplanned).

I suspect that this was all planned out years ago. It just didn't occur to any pundits *how* the plan would work even though this thread is a testament to the evidence being right in our face the whole time.

And by 'this', I mean free gold and a NWO monetary system.
 
Yes its been under discussion for as long as I have been following the metals.
And with regards to Freegold, when his site was free and fully accessible, I used to follow FOFOA closely.
There were / are some bright individuals in the speakeasy and the legacy of Another / Friend of Another, is still a place to go if you want to get a deeper understanding of how the money system really works.
I just found a recent interview of FOFOA and am working through it -

 
Andrew McGuire talks Basel 3 starting at around the 3 minute mark:

 
Craig Hemke at Sprott Money posted a bit that includes a link indicating that US banks will also abide the Basel 3 NSFR rule for gold:


It looks like the COMEX banks might be closing out their shorts in anticipation of the rule change.
 
I think he makes some good points. Having less liquidity / lower volume in the markets doesn't in and of itself predicate a rising or falling price. There will likely be stronger volatility as the momentum pendulum swings though. If physical stores (gold especially) really are as tight as is being reported though,. a less liquid market is likely to reflect that with rising prices. We'll see.
 
I got a good laugh out of the UBS quote at the end. Typo by Reuters or Freudian slip by UBS rep... Who knows. But the "gold cleaning" shall continue.
 
Reviewing this conversation from a few months ago. Nothing much has changed with the gold price that I noticed. Its seems to be range bound around ~1800 give or take $50. Volatility isn't really any different from before.

I did see some reports* that implementation of Basel 3 has been delayed a year due to Covid, so that might be a factor.

* Like this one:
...
The rules have already been delayed a year to January 2023 due to COVID.
...

 

Andrew McGuire says Basel 3 NSFRs took time to be fully implemented, but are now constraining the paper markets. 41min long video rambles a bit IMO, but BIS and gold lease talk vis a vis Basel 3 begins around the 14 minute mark.

tldw: BIS getting ready for gold revaluation. The revaluation is coming soon.
 


I do not know how or if this will affect gold/NSFRs.
 
Belated follow up to my last post:

Link to proposal:


I skimmed both links above and did not see any reference to gold or NSFRs.
 
WASHINGTON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - A group of 39 Senate Republicans in a letter on Monday called on major U.S. banking regulators to withdraw a contentious proposal to significantly raise bank capital requirements, warning it could hinder lending and harm the economy.

THE TAKE​

Republicans have been consistently critical of the so-called "Basel III endgame" proposal, but Monday's letter marks one of the broadest, most explicit attempts so far to derail that effort, as lawmakers contend the proposal, if finalized, could curb banks' activity by forcing them to hold more capital.

More:

 
It may mean this Black Friday and/or Christmas might be the last time we see sub-$1900 gold in $USD.
 
Seeking Alpha

Jamie Dimon, other bank CEOs to warn Congress of Basel III endgame risks​

The heads of Wall Street's eight biggest banks will warn lawmakers on Wednesday that the "Basel III endgame" proposal will hurt the economy and hamper lending, according to each of their prepared testimonies.

Regulators in July proposed strengthening regulations by requiring large U.S. banks to set aside more capital to absorb potential losses. Banks repeatedly slammed the proposal, saying this is not justified as they are well-capitalized.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...S&cvid=3727d048987b459baa95b5f655b5b23e&ei=45
 

Exclusive: US regulators expected to significantly reduce Basel capital burden​


WASHINGTON, March 6 (Reuters) - U.S. regulators are expected to significantly reduce the extra capital banks must hold under a proposed rule that has drawn aggressive pushback from Wall Street, said eight industry executives in regular contact with the agencies and regulatory officials.

Bank regulators led by the Federal Reserve in July unveiled the "Basel III" proposal to overhaul how banks with more than $100 billion in assets calculate the cash they must set aside to absorb potential losses.

The agencies said it would increase aggregate capital by around 16% for the roughly three dozen affected lenders. That figure is expected to fall sharply as regulators embark on a sweeping rewrite of the draft, the people said.

The regulatory discussions are in their early stages and no decisions have been made, the people said. The agencies have said they are analyzing hundreds of public comments and data from banks on the impact of the proposal.

The biggest capital savings will come from changes to how banks will have to calculate potential losses from operational risks, which is the costliest plank of the proposal, three people said. In that section, banks had been pushing regulators to reduce the risk weights for fee income associated with lending services, such as investment banking.

More:

 
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