Calendar: all important financial events until end of 2012

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swissaustrian

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Very useful overview of the chaos that is about to start.

source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/complete-ranked-world-calendar-events-end-year

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...303/imageroot/2012/08-2/20120829_Calendar.png

20120829_Calendar.png
 
The more I think about this the more I am coming to the view that deflation is coming in the future, and not inflation. That is why Bernanke has been so coy in his terminology about what he plans to do.
Everyone expects inflation and even hyper-inflation. That is the way magicians carry off their tricks, keep attention away from what they are really doing.
 
Looks like metals are ramping higher this morning in anticipation of Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech. I can only imagine they are going to tumble later when he disappoints.
 
Bernanke can not afford more QE right now. If he throws more money at the market, it will only cause the rest of the world to do more of the same and devalue their own shit just a little bit more. China has her landing gear down right now and is desperately trying for a smooth landing, although I think they will hit so hard the wheels fall off. Europe is a giant fucking tragicomedy unfolding in slow motion, as the technocrat goldmanites try to squeeze a little bit more blood out of the nearly bloodless corpses that are Spain and Greece. Italy and Portugal are on-line for their blood sucking next, as the bankers MUST get their vig at all and any cost.

No, I rather think that no matter what Bernanke says or does today at J-Hole, we are irretrievably fucked and will ultimately be forced to not only repudiate our inconceivably massive debt, but withdraw our mighty army from the four corners of the earth and concentrate on reconstructing our nation from the ashpit of the beforetime.

Should the mighty Bernank decide to overtly hint at QE in the very near future, we will surely see an artificial ramp in the markets [on the usual record low volume], and at the same time we'll see a hopium induced risk-off in PM's which should take silver back down to 28 something, but the people will not be fooled for long, because the structural problems are still there and they are festering. How many more "London Whales" are out there hiding behind a pile of derivatives, pretending to "net out to zero"?? I'll bet more than a few.
 
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Well it looks like the markets are pricing in a QE3 announcement for September 13. If Ben disappoints, look out below...
 
Well, looks like the Fed is signalling QE to Infinity to become official policy to coincide with the pending German court ruling / ECB bond buying spree. The race to the bottom is about to begin in earnest.

 
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While I can speak read and write fluent Spanish, have a working knowledge of French, Italian and Portugese [well....my Portugese is pretty bad], my German is so terrible I once almost got an ass kicking in a bar in Bremen.
 
ancona said:
While I can speak read and write fluent Spanish, have a working knowledge of French, Italian and Portugese [well....my Portugese is pretty bad], my German is so terrible I once almost got an ass kicking in a bar in Bremen.
Click to expand...
If I as a Swiss citizen go into some northern German bar and don't hide my Swiss dialect (we speak German here, too), I could get the same treatment even though I understand everything they say :cheers:
 
No surprise. A "Yes, but..." decision.
The court upheld the ESM, but said that Germany's contributions to the ESM have to be limited and enhancements have to be agreed on by the German government. Meaning: other nations and EU bureaucrats can't dictate the size of Germany's financial burden.
The court also invalidated the total immunity and secrecy of ESM documents and officials. They have to report to the German parliament. Meaning: Some parliamentary control will be possible.

Still a traitorous decision
 
Thanks for the decision summary. It's pretty much what I expected. Metals legging up. The news trifecta completes tomorrow ...
 
It's all up to Berspanky and the gang now. I'll wager eighteen cents that he demures on QE 4eva, but announces some bullshit program to buy bonds or something. If he goes all in with up-front and visible QE, gold and silver will launch their long awaited rockets to teh moon, since the dollar will then be officially dead.
 
Let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture:
The big events (ECB, German constitutional court, FOMC) in September have gone by very smoothly. Everything had the best possible outcome concerning the outlook for pms (and other hard assets).
Now there are basicly no predictable obstacles for markets until the US elections.
Central banks have done what they could to prop up markets and they have promised to do more should market conditions (i.e. bank profits) worsen. This means: bad news is good news. The worse the news, the higher the chances for more QE. The FED isn't going to act until after the election, so their next big appearance will be on December 12th. The ECB stands ready to cap sovereign yields under the condition of countries asking for help and subjecting to unelected transnational bureaucrats. If a Eurozone sovereign were to get in trouble, we'd likely see short term turmoil in markets, but the "ECB put" would likely reduce pressures.
So far so good (for pms).

Now there could be a few black swans and unexpected events until December.
I'm mainly thinking about geopolitical events. Recent revolts in front of US embassies in several Muslim countries and the subsequent violent counter reactions by local authorities (tear gas, killing protesters etc...) could just be the beginning of civil unrest in oil producing countries and strategic regions (e.g. Egypt). The peoples of these countries don't understand why their militaries and police forces protect the "evil" Americans from them and could turn against their own (puppet) leaders in countries like Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iraq etc. Add the Iran conflict to the mix and you get huge geopolitical uncertainty. Israel's prime minister Netanyahu seems to be determined to attack Iran no matter what, possibly even before the US election. That would trigger a 1970s style oil price shock.

Bottom line: If we have a calm autumn, pms will do well. If we don't, most scenarios are bullish, too.
 
ECB meeting announcement due in 55 minutes. Press conference at 8:30 am ET.
I don't expect big surprises. Maybe some more details on the OMT program.

US initial claims at 8:30am ET, too.
Bad news is good news here and vice versa for pms.
 
Thanks for the updates sa. I'm tied up right now and don't have a lot of time to keep up with the news flow.
 
I forgot: FOMC minutes are going to be published today at 2 pm ET.
Maybe some "moar QE" rhetoric is going to cause a spike in pms?
 
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