Commodities, Business & Shipping (and Tariffs)

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Dow jumps 1,000 points Tuesday to snap four-day string of losses: Live updates​

Stocks rallied Tuesday on hopes that U.S.-China trade tensions could ease soon, as investors recovered from the steep declines suffered in the previous session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,016.57 points, or 2.66%, to close at 39,186.98. The S&P 500 gained 2.51% and settled at 5,287.76, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.71% to end at 16,300.42.

The major averages spiked on news that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a group of investors Tuesday that there “will be a de-escalation” in the trade war with China. “No one thinks the current status quo is sustainable,” he said during a meeting with investors hosted by JPMorgan Chase, according to a person in the room. The meeting was first reported by Bloomberg News.

More:

 

Tesla's Optimus humanoid robots hit by China's rare earth restrictions, says Musk​

  • Elon Musk said that China's new trade restrictions on rare earth magnets have affected the production of Tesla's Optimus humanoid robots.
  • He added that the company was working through the issue with Beijing and hoped to get approval to access the critical components.
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...S&cvid=261737e59bb84eaf8f8f1f77faae5b25&ei=33
 
At this point in time, I don't see economic doom. And from what I've been reading / hearing the tariff threats have only served to drive a wedge between America and the rest of the world. Some of my latest posts indicate that the Trump team may be starting to wake up to that fact.

We live in a very interconnected world. Everything we rely on is a commodity, most of which come from overseas. And a supply chain that operates outside of politics is necessary for our daily survival. Just imagine how things would be if a shitload of countries got together and decided that not one ship would sail into an American port for 30 days. Not a pretty thought.

I think the Trump team is waking up to this reality and will be bringing things back to normal (reality) very soon. Of course, you'll hear a lot of posturing from fearless leader but in reality, it'll just be posturing. People need to be kept supplied with their daily needs or things could become very ugly.

jm2c - fwiw
 

Dow futures rally 600 points after Trump softens stance on Powell, China tariffs: Live updates​

Stock futures climbed on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said he doesn’t plan to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell from his post as central bank leader. They also got a boost as Trump also signaled tariffs on Chinese imports may go down.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 613 points, or 1.6%. Futures tied to the S&P 500 popped 2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures added 2.4%.

The rally in futures came after Trump said late Tuesday that he has “no intention” of firing Powell, whose term as Fed chair will end in May 2026.

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China's Rare Earth Export Halt Raises Trade War Tensions | OilPrice.com

China's recent suspension of rare earth mineral exports is escalating trade tensions with the United States, threatening global supply chains and prompting considerations of alternative sourcing strategies.
oilprice.com

Rare Earth Showdown Hits Tesla, Defense Firms Hardest | OilPrice.com

With no domestic heavy rare earth separation capacity and a shuttered alternative facility in Vietnam, the U.S. is highly dependent on Chinese supply.
oilprice.com
 
This one is an opinion piece. Take it fwiw and dyodd.

Trump is panicked over the tariffs course, his comments point to China being ‘in control’​

US President Donald Trump could reduce the heavy tariffs on Chinese goods, a policy that has defined his administration’s trade war with China. During a press event held in the Oval Office on Tuesday, Trump stated that tariffs on Chinese goods “will not be as high as 145%” and “will come down substantially,” but not be eliminated entirely.
According to the president, top Chinese officials are communicating with American representatives, and he believes they will reach an agreement soon. Yet, some economists argue Trump’s public optimism masks a lack of real progress behind closed doors.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...S&cvid=b72efa2b577b45128bf579dda2965f47&ei=15
 

Wall Street Breakfast Podast: Trump Won't Oust Powell, Musk Can't Quit Tesla​

Summary​

  • President Trump’s assertion he won't fire Fed Chairman Powell eased market concerns, boosting growth stocks and lifting Nasdaq and S&P futures.
  • Despite Trump’s comments, concerns about Fed independence persist, with economists warning of potential long-term damage to the central bank’s credibility.
  • Tesla shares rallied as Elon Musk reaffirmed his commitment, overshadowing poor Q1 results.
  • Intel plans significant workforce reductions under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan to streamline operations.
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Supply Chains Explained: How They Work and Why Tariffs Can Strain Them​

Supply chains are critically important to domestic and global commerce. Explaining and understanding them isn’t so simple. The Darden Report took a deep dive on supply chains with Associate Professor of Business Administration Vidya Mani, an expert on supply chains, to learn more about how it all works. For those who prefer to get the highlights and save the fuller report for later, find an AI summary of the main points at the top.

  • A supply chain is a series of connected processes transforming raw materials into finished products and distributing them to consumers.
  • Companies optimize costs by sourcing parts from suppliers rather than making everything in-house.
  • Tariffs disrupt global supply chains by increasing costs for imported goods.
  • Trade conflicts can lead to increased consumer prices, loss of market share, and job losses in supply chain-dependent industries.
  • Higher tariffs can raise costs for companies, leading to higher prices for consumers.

What is a supply chain and how does it work in basic terms?​

A supply chain is a series of linkages from raw materials to final product for end use and back to raw materials after use. Each stage of the supply chain involves a transformation step through a manufacturing or a service process and a network of people, companies, organizations and governments.

For example, if you look at a car, you have the motor assembly, which includes gear boxes that contain clutches, whose parts include pressure plates made from steel blanks, produced from steel, which is made from minerals. At each stage, a manufacturer could choose to make the complete product or buy its parts from suppliers who make them and assemble it to sell to the next stage.

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Supply Chains Explained: How They Work and Why Tariffs Can Strain Them – Darden Report Online

March 11, 2025 Supply chains are critically important to domestic and global commerce. Explaining and understanding them isn’t so simple. The Darden Report took a deep dive on supply chains with Associate Professor of Business Administration Vidya Mani, an expert on supply chains, to learn more...
news.darden.virginia.edu
 
Weekly scrap metal market report

Check Scrap Prices: https://iScrapApp.com/ - This week’s report delivers critical insights into April’s chaotic metal markets, with copper leading the charge.
From a tariff-fueled copper plunge to a rare post-Easter price rebound, plus China clamping down on rare earths and the U.S. greenlighting fast-track mining permits—this is one of the most dynamic weeks scrappers have seen in months.
Read more: https://iscrapapp.com/blog/weekly-scr...

Copper Prices Go Wild: Tariffs, Trade Wars & Rare Earth Shocks | Scrap Market Report​

 
Nothing to see, can listen in one tab, play around the forum in a different tab.

Sorting Through The Chaos​

Apr 23, 2025 Doug Casey's Take

In this episode, we discuss navigating current confusing times, covering a wide range of topics from the ongoing war in Russia and US political uncertainties, to financial market trends and the declining value of the dollar. We delve into the impact of Trump's actions and inactions on domestic and international issues, the role of gold as a stable investment, and the societal implications of financial chaos in the US. Additional discussions include historical tidbits about figures such as Joshua Norton and Boris Yeltsin, reflections on the Catholic Church's evolution, and speculations about the future. Tune in for a comprehensive conversation that combines current affairs, historical context, and personal insights.

31:40

00:00 Introduction and Current Global Confusion
01:19 Political Promises and Indictments
03:14 Market Uncertainty and Investment Strategies
06:37 The Decline of the Dollar and Global Implications
13:16 Living in South America: A Personal Perspective
14:28 Historical Events and Figures
17:06 The Catholic Church and Religious Musings
31:10 Concluding Thoughts and Upcoming Discussions
 

Trump’s 100% Tariff Proposal on Chinese Cranes Could Leave U.S. Ports with Few Options

Chinese cranes that load and unload containers from ships are the latest target of the Trump administration’s attempt to boost domestic manufacturing, even as no US industry for the equipment exists.
gcaptain.com

Industry Leaders Warn of Supply Chain Crisis as Trump Tariffs Hit US-China Trade

Container shipping between China and the United States faces unprecedented disruption following the implementation of new Trump administration tariffs on U.S. imports from China, with industry leaders warning of potential...
gcaptain.com
 
^^^^
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Trump considering exemption for automakers on some tariffs, White House says​

Published Wed, Apr 23 20254:47 PM EDTUpdated 7 Min Ago

  • President Donald Trump is considering exemptions for automakers from some tariffs announced by his administration, the White House confirmed Wednesday to CNBC’s Eamon Javers.
  • The confirmation follows a Financial Times report that Trump is planning to exempt auto parts from tariffs on imports from China.
  • This week six of the top policy groups representing the U.S. automotive industry uncharacteristically joined forces to lobby the Trump administration against implementing the upcoming tariffs on auto parts.

President Donald Trump is considering exemptions for automakers from some tariffs announced by his administration, the White House confirmed Wednesday to CNBC’s Eamon Javers.

The confirmation follows a Financial Times report that Trump is planning to exempt auto parts from tariffs on imports from China that Trump imposed to counter fentanyl production as well as levies on steel and aluminum.

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Philly Shipyard owner Hanwha says it needs more space and workers to build U.S. Navy vessels​

The U.S. government wants to build more military and cargo ships to better compete with China, and Hanwha Philly Shipyard is ready for a larger role in building those ships, Daniel O’Brien, head of Hanwha’s Washington, D.C., lobbying arm, said Wednesday on a tour of the facility his company bought for $100 million last year.

But first, the shipyard is going to need more room — and more workers, O’Brien said.

U.S. Sen. Chris Coons (D., Del.) joined O’Brien and other Hanwha officials, along with U.S. Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon (D., Pa.) and an aide to U.S. Sen. David McCormick (R., Pa.), to learn more about Hanwha’s expansion plans.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...S&cvid=550e62ed99dd4ba09a65e4be12fa08c6&ei=27
 

The above post was yesterday. Here's today:

China not negotiating with US on trade war, Beijing says​

China is not negotiating with the U.S. over tariffs, Beijing declared Thursday, despite President Donald Trump recently suggesting the 145% tax on its imports could be reduced "substantially."

Ministry of Commerce spokesman He Yadong said "Any claims about the progress of China-U.S. trade negotiations are groundless as trying to catch the wind and have no factual basis," according to the Associated Press.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...S&cvid=368c47d697ee447586ab0165fd884c32&ei=11

What should we believe. Is Trump lying? Is China lying? In a sane world the trade war would not have been started.
 

Dow futures slip after China says trade talks haven’t even started: Live updates​

Updated Thu, Apr 24 2025 8:23 AM EDT

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped Thursday after China said that it had no ongoing trade talks with the U.S., dashing investors’ hopes of an ease in tensions between the two nations.

Futures tied to the blue-chip index lost 184 points, or 0.5%. S&P 500 futures were down 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures were marginally higher.

The major averages posted strong gains on Wednesday, rising more than 1% each. That said, they finished the day well off their highs. At one point on Wednesday, the Dow was up more than 1,100 points.

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Are US Ports Empty and What Impact Does the Tariff Have on Global Shipping?​

Apr 24, 2025 #supplychain #containers #tariffs

In this episode, Sal Mercogliano — a maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner — discusses the impact of the tariffs set by the Trump Administration on global shipping and in US ports, with a focus on Los Angeles and New York/New Jersey.

23:11

Chinese Exporters Retreat From US as Tariffs Erode Profitability https://gcaptain.com/chinese-exporter...
Hapag-Lloyd Says 30% of China’s U.S. Bound Shipments Have Been Canceled https://gcaptain.com/hapag-lloyd-says...
Chinese freight ship traffic to busiest U.S. ports, Los Angeles, Long Beach, sees steep drop https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/busie...
Industry Leaders Warn of Supply Chain Crisis as Trump Tariffs Hit US-China Trade https://gcaptain.com/industry-leaders...
Cancelled Sailings Tracker - 18 Apr https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain...
Trump Floats ‘Substantial’ China Tariff Cuts in Trade Deal https://gcaptain.com/trump-floats-sub...
Port of LA: Cargo Operations Dashboard https://www.portoflosangeles.org/busi...
Port of NY/NJ: Facts and Figures https://www.panynj.gov/port/en/our-po...
 

The trade war’s wave of retail shortages will hit U.S. consumers in stages. Here’s when​

Published Thu, Apr 24 2025 2:28 PM EDT Updated 17 Min Ago

  • Most major retailers including Home Depot, Walmart, and IKEA have significant levels of imports from China.
  • Even as manufacturing orders from China and freight vessels sailing from Asia to the U.S. decline, it is to soon to know for sure that shelves will run short of goods.
  • But within a few months of a prolonged trade war, supply chain executives say the first signs of empty shelves would show up where price-sensitive imports dominate — toys, low-cost apparel, and budget home goods.
Warnings of empty store shelves have been in the headlines as multiple press reports indicate that CEOs of America’s top retail stores told President Trump that a prolonged trade war would lead to shortages.

When could that become a reality, and what product categories would be hit first?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently described a trade war with China as “unsustainable.”

More:

 
Tractor Mike

Apr 24, 2025 #TractorMarket2025 #TariffImpact #TractorDealers
In this in-depth video, we dive into the real-world impacts of President Trump's recently enacted tariffs on the tractor industry, exploring how sudden policy shifts are affecting tractor supply chains, pricing, inventory management, and customer decision-making across the U.S. If you're a dealer, manufacturer, or buyer in the agricultural machinery space, this is a must-watch update.

Trump's Tariffs & Tractor Trade Turmoil
 

Product shortages and empty store shelves loom with falling shipments from China​

Retailers are warning that U.S. consumers could once again be faced with empty store shelves and the kind of supply chain snarls that marked the Covid era if President Donald Trump's tariffs on China remain at their current levels.

Companies have been canceling their shipments of goods from China and halting new orders after Trump put a 145% tariff on nearly all Chinese imports this month. As a result, the number of freight vessels scheduled to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles is on track to be down 33% year-over-year for the week ending May 10, according to ship tracking data from Port Optimizer.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...S&cvid=89aca41d2cb84b27a339d49293c092dc&ei=15
 
Updated Fri, Apr 25 2025 6:45 AM EDT

Stock futures slide after 3-day winning streak: Live updates​

Stock futures were lower on Friday following a three-day winning streak on Wall Street as investors weigh earnings from a major tech company and lingering trade fears.

Futures linked to the S&P 500 were 0.2% higher, while Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 0.3. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 171 points, or 0.4%.

Alphabet jumped about 5% after the Google-parent and “Magnificent Seven” name reported a beat on the top and the bottom line for the first quarter. By contrast, Intel fell more than 7% after offering disappointing guidance and revealing that it plans to slash operational and capital expenses.

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