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Morning Bid: Dow flirts with 40k, China fights homes bust​

May 17, 2024

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

After a week of worldwide stock market records, Friday seems set for a breather - with attention switching to the deepening Chinese housing bust and sweeping government plans to stop the rot there.

Thursday's saw the blue-chip Dow Jones (.DJI), opens new tab briefly top the 40,000 milestone as the S&P500 (.SPX), opens new tab, Nasdaq (.IXIC), opens new tab and MCSI all-country index (.MIWD00000PUS), opens new tab all clocked all-time intraday highs too.

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Take Five: The good, the bad and the ugly​

May 17 (Reuters) - Markets are hoping for evidence that will solidify a brightening global economic outlook, though rising trade tensions are casting a cloud, while G7 finance ministers gather in Italy.

AI darling Nvidia reports results, London has its sights on a revival in stock listings, while New Zealand's central bank is stuck in rut between lacklustre growth and sticky inflation.

Here's your look at what's happening in markets this coming week from Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Lewis Krauskopf in New York, and Anousha Sakoui, Dhara Ranasinghe and Karin Strohecker in London.

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Nothing to see, can listen in one tab, play around the forum in a different tab.

Doug Casey's Take [ep.#324] Building Communities: Online & Real World​

In a comprehensive Q&A session, Doug Casey, associated with Crisis Investing, answers various questions from the members of The Phyle, a private community. He discusses his vision and experiences with Estancia de Cafayate, the concept of free cities, and reflections on investment and community living. Doug also tackles questions about the alignment of personal philosophy with business ethics, the importance of associating with ethically grounded individuals, and strategies for dealing with conflicts of interest in transactions. Furthermore, he addresses the measurement of economic growth beyond GDP, the impact of demographics on economies, artificial intelligence and the future of work, and the conceptualization of The File community for like-minded individuals. The dialogue also touches on modern art appreciation, caring for elderly parents internationally, exploring agricultural investment opportunities, the potential for conflict in South America, and demographic changes affecting civilization.

1:10:11

Chapters:
00:00 Intro
00:20 Vision and Lessons from Estancia de Cafayate
07:03 Navigating Personal Philosophy vs. Business Ethics
13:47 The Flaws of GDP as an Economic Indicator
18:19 Art, Optimism, and Personal Collections
23:31 Caring for Elderly Parents Abroad vs. Home
26:50 Exploring Investment Opportunities in Agribusiness
31:49 The Concept of the Gray Man in Crisis Situations
33:44 The Future of The Phyle Community
36:35 Exploring Self-Directed Learning and Community Support
37:09 The Challenge of Building Online Communities
38:28 The Future of Work and Universal Basic Income Debate
40:19 The Impact of Robotics and AI on Society
42:05 The Flaws of Guaranteed Annual Income
45:15 Empowering the Next Generation Through Practical Skills
45:56 Matt's son's project https://www.GreatMan.com
51:36 The Potential and Pitfalls of Demographic Changes
59:41 Evaluating Government Interventions in Vehicle Use
01:01:31 Speculating on the Possibility of War in South America
 

August feeder cattle jump $9.05 for the week | Weekly Livestock Market Update​

May 17, 2024

On this episode of Weekly Livestock Market Update, Brownfield Anchor/Reporter Meghan Grebner and University of Missouri Market Analyst Scott Brown talk August feeder cattle jumping $9.05 for the week.

12:09
 

Menace on the Menu: The Financialisation of Farmland and the War on Food and Farming​

Between 2008 and 2022, land prices nearly doubled throughout the world and tripled in Central-Eastern Europe. In the UK, an influx of investment from pension funds and private wealth contributed to a doubling of farmland prices from 2010-2015. Land prices in the US agricultural heartlands of Iowa quadrupled between 2002 and 2020.

Agricultural investment funds rose ten-fold between 2005 and 2018 and now regularly include farmland as a stand-alone asset class, with US investors having doubled their stakes in farmland since 2020.

Meanwhile, agricultural commodity traders are speculating on farmland through their own private equity subsidiaries, while new financial derivatives are allowing speculators to accrue land parcels and lease them back to struggling farmers, driving steep and sustained land price inflation.

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Menace On The Menu: The Financialisation Of Farmland And The War On Food And Farming | Countercurrents

Between 2008 and 2022, land prices nearly doubled throughout the world and tripled in Central-Eastern Europe. In the UK, an influx of investment
countercurrents.org
 

How to Prepare for the Next Decade with Lyn Alden​

May 16, 2024

Author and Investor Lyn Alden explores what it is like to live in a world of Fiscal Dominance and the who's going to win and loose from it.

16:32

Listen to the full Podcast • Lyn Alden's Guide to Survive The U.S....
 
Asian Markets

Morning Bid: China clouds darken market mood​

May 20 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Broadly speaking, the global backdrop for Asian markets is still bright, with investors confident that the Fed will soon cut U.S. interest rates keeping the dollar, bond yields and volatility in check, and boosting risk assets.

But there's a cloud that shows no sign of lifting: China. If anything, it's getting darker.

The economic "data dump" from Beijing on Friday showed that China's recovery is sputtering - investment growth slowed, retail sales expanded at the slowest pace since late 2022, and new home prices fell at the fastest rate in nine years.

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Surging commodity stocks prop up European shares​

  • Miners, energy stocks lead morning gains
  • Volkswagen dips as MS downgrades to "under-weight"
  • Banks pressure Italian shares
May 20 (Reuters) - European shares inched up on Monday but gains remained in check as a rise in commodity-linked stocks was offset by uncertainty around the outlook for interest rates.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX), opens new tab rose 0.1% to hover below record highs hit last week.

Miners (.SXPP), opens new tab and oil & gas (.SXEP), opens new tab indexes climbed about 0.6% each, leading gains among European sectors as copper prices surged to record highs helped by China's property support measures and better-than-expected industrial data.

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Morning Bid: Buoyant start to 'Nvidia week'​

May 20, 2024

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

World markets, heady on hopes for renewed U.S. disinflation and another attempt by China at shoring up its ailing housing sector, entered the new week on the front foot as attention switched back to the artificial intelligence boom.

AI-bellwether Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab reports quarterly earnings on Wednesday with the bar to impress the investor gallery as high as ever - its stock has almost doubled again this year so far after tripling in 2023.

And that's with good reason - the chipmaking giant's revenue is expected to have more than trebled to $24.8 billion from $7.2 billion a year earlier, with earnings per share soaring to $5.57 from $1.09, according to LSEG data.

As a curious taster on Friday, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O), opens new tab gained more than 1% as Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab said it plans to offer its cloud computing customers a platform of AMD AI chips that will compete with components made by Nvidia.

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Commodity Roundup: Gold at record high, oil reverses gains​

Gold prices scaled an all-time high on Monday, driven by signs of slowing U.S. inflation, while oil prices ticked lower after initially rising following the news of Iran's president Ebrahim Raisi's death.

Spot gold (XAUUSD:CUR) was up +1.18% to $2,442.64 an ounce, after hitting a record high of $2,449.89 earlier in the session. The metal clocked a second-straight weekly gain on Friday. Silver topped $30/oz to a decade high amid surging investor interest.

A soft U.S. dollar and expectations the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates soon has helped gold prices, said Kyle Rodda, a financial market analyst at Capital.com to Reuters.

In other news, Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman postponed a four-day visit to Japan as King Salman is being treated for lung inflammation. The trip was scheduled to start Monday.

Oil futures changed course to trade lower, with front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for June delivery down -0.37% to $79.76 a barrel, and front-month July Brent crude (CO1:COM) eased -0.25% to $83.77.

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Main facts about the copper market as prices hit record highs​

LONDON, May 20 (Reuters) - Copper surged to record highs on Monday as a recent rally triggered by short covering created momentum for speculators and funds to bet on higher prices of the metal.

Below are the main facts about the copper market, sourced from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the International Copper Association (ICA), and Reuters data.

INDUSTRIAL USES​

Copper is used in the power and construction industries and is widely expected to benefit in future from the green energy transition via additional demand from the electric vehicle sector and new applications including data centers for artificial intelligence (AI).

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Why it's a 'perfect storm' for commodities right now​

May 20, 2024 #youtube #gold #stockmarket

Gold prices (GC=F) hit a record high today, boosted by increasing geopolitical uncertainty following the death of Iran's president. Blue Line Futures Chief Market Strategist Phil Streible and Wolfe Research Managing Director Timna Tanners join Market Domination to discuss why commodities — including other precious metals silver (SI=F) and copper (HG=F) — have seen such a boost.

7:49
 

Morning Bid: Calm markets hover near highs, metals step back​

May 21, 2024

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Partly due to the absence of top-tier economic news this week, world markets have found a relatively calm plateau with stocks near their latest records - and even fizzing metals prices cooling a touch.

Wednesday's release of both Nvidia's (NVDA.O), opens new tab quarterly earnings and the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes loom largest as potential game changers - but the broad constellation of influences remains bullish.

After recording its lowest close since just before the pandemic on Friday, Wall St's VIX volatility gauge is comfortably subdued and even Treasury market volatility (.MOVE), opens new tab has subsided to seven-week lows.

U.S. financial conditions, as measured by the Chicago Fed's index, are at their easiest since January 2022 - just before the Fed kicked off its credit tightening campaign. And even though futures markets retain expectations of about 41 basis points of Fed easing over the remainder of this year, Fed officials themselves seem in no rush.

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Farmers Are Breeding Hybrid Dairy Cattle to Sell for Meat

(Bloomberg) -- With America’s supply of beef cattle the lowest since 1961, dairy farmers are finding another way to make money: breed more calves destined for the slaughterhouse.Most Read from BloombergChina Attempts to End Property Crisis With Broad Rescue PackageWith a BlackRock CEO, $9...
finance.yahoo.com
 

How continued inflation pressure impacts agriculture | Weekly Commodity Market Update​

May 21, 2024

This week Will and Ben look at paths forward for interest rates and breakdown the soybean complex.

13:33
 

Critical Minerals and the Case for Gold​

May 21, 2024 Unearthed

In this episode of "Unearthed," hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade speak with George Burns, President and Chief Executive Officer, Eldorado Gold, discussing critical minerals and the role of gold in our world. George joins Joe and John for the conversation in Toronto during PDAC 2024, the world's largest mineral exploration and mining conference, where George shares insight into the importance that critical minerals play in everyday life, as well as in the future for the energy transition. The conversation covers how gold is perceived around the world, and how its recognition as a critical mineral should be growing. George also provides an overview of Eldorado’s mining operations and shares inspiring examples of how Eldorado Gold is positively impacting the communities in which it operates. The trio also discuss another aspect of gold’s strategic importance to the world – how its unique properties make it a critical resource for the technology we enjoy today and medical innovations. George concludes with some of the hurdles that critical minerals may face due to the need for infrastructure to match the ambition of the energy transition.

24:54

Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@worldgoldcouncil/videos
 

Morning Bid: Nvidia nears, UK CPI lunge misses target​

May 22, 2024

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

While the inflation and interest rate world continues to throw up unpleasant surprises, it's hard to imagine much of a shift in major indexes on Wednesday as Nvidia's (.NVDA), opens new tab earnings drum roll builds through the session before a post-bell release.

While it's slightly alarming to have just one firm hold an entire stock market in thrall, the sheer weight of Nvidia in indexes after another near doubling of its share price this year underlines both its own importance as well as that of artificial intelligence narrative at large.

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Podcast here, nothing to see, can listen in one tab, play around the forum in a different tab.

Doug Casey's Take [ep.#325] WW3 and Unconventional Warfare​

May 22, 2024 Doug Casey's Take

This script features a detailed discussion between hosts, covering a range of topics including the historical significance of Emperor Constantine's baptism and its impact on Christianity, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's life, works, and his interest in spiritualism. It also touches upon recent and historical natural disasters, comparing their scales and impacts across different times and locations. The conversation shifts to current geopolitical tensions, potential for conflicts, and the buildup to what is described as a form of World War III through unconventional warfare tactics. The dialogue also explores the implications of recent assassinations, coup attempts, and military movements, suggesting a grim outlook on global stability. Additionally, the script delves into the U.S. political scene, speculating on the upcoming elections and the potential for significant changes. It concludes with advice on personal and financial preparedness in the face of these uncertainties.

41:25

Chapters:
00:00 Intro Opening Remarks and Encyclopedia Britannica Discussion
00:55 Historical Insights: From Constantine's Baptism to Sherlock Holmes
05:56 Natural Disasters and Their Historical Impact
10:19 Contemplating the Degel Report and the Onset of World War III
12:20 Unconventional Warfare and Global Tensions Rise
25:28 Election Speculations and Political Maneuvering
35:16 Global Military Movements and European Tensions
38:30 Advice for Europeans and Closing Thoughts
 

Scrap Metal Market Turmoil: Copper Hits Records, Steel Declines - What to Expect Next​

Check Scrap Prices: https://iScrapApp.com/ - Join us for this week's detailed analysis of the scrap metal market, where we witnessed one of the most turbulent weeks in history. Copper prices soared to record highs, only to drop and rebound, creating a challenging environment for scrappers. We'll explore the dramatic fluctuations in copper and aluminum prices, the ongoing decline in steel, and the slight uptick in stainless steel. Additionally, we cover the modest increases in catalytic converter prices and the steady trends in carbide and rare earth metals. As Memorial Day approaches, we also honor our veterans and their contributions. Stay tuned for expert insights and strategies to navigate this volatile market.

Read more: https://iscrapapp.com/blog/weekly-scr...

15:04
 

Morning Bid: Nvidia aces Fed, tense Taiwan and UK poll​

May 23, 2024

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Yet another quarterly earnings beat from AI-chip behemoth Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab catapulted Wall St stock futures higher again on Thursday - batting away hawkish Federal Reserve meeting minutes, military tension around Taiwan and news of a July UK election.

Nvidia's extraordinary boom on the scramble for artificial intelligence showed little sign of faltering and its stock - which now accounts for over 5% of the entire S&P500 capitalization - soared 7% out of hours after its latest update.

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Wall Street braces for faster trade settlement​

NEW YORK, May 23 (Reuters) - U.S. trading moves to a shorter settlement on Tuesday, which regulators hope will reduce risk and improve efficiency in the world's largest markets, but is expected to temporarily increase transaction failure for investors.

To comply with a rule change the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) adopted last February, opens new tab, investors in U.S. equities, corporate and municipal bonds and other securities, opens new tab must settle their transactions one business day after the trade instead of two as of May 28. Canada, opens new tab, Mexico and Argentina, opens new tab will speed up their market transactions a day earlier, on Monday. The UK is expected to follow in 2027, and Europe is considering the change.

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Take Five: Inflation watch​

May 24 (Reuters) - Inflation data from the U.S., the euro zone and Japan in the days ahead will guide investors' expectations over the scale and pace of interest rate changes to come in major economies.

Markets are bracing for the shortening of trade settlements for U.S. securities, while South Africans will head to the polls in the most uncertain election in decades.

Here's your look at what's happening in markets this coming week from Rae Wee in Singapore, Lewis Krauskopf in New York, and Naomi Rovnick, Sinead Cruise and Marc Jones in London.

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Morning Bid: Fed fears overwhelm AI theme, gold recoils​

May 24, 2024

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

And then there was one.

In an extraordinary turnabout in just five months, financial markets now fully price just one quarter-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year - compared to the six built into futures prices at the start of 2024.

The good news is that's largely down to the sheer strength of the ongoing U.S. expansion - the bad news is that very strength makes it harder for the Fed to see inflation hitting its target and keeps it hesitating on a first rate cut.

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Wall Street ends higher, crude prices rise ahead of US holiday weekend​

NEW YORK, May 24 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied and crude oil prices rebounded after upbeat economic data on Friday as investors positioned themselves ahead of the long U.S. Memorial Day weekend and the unofficial start to summer.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 advanced, while the Dow closed nominally higher.

The light-volume session capped a week in which minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve policy meeting struck a hawkish tone, solid economic data hinted at the possibility of rising inflation and megacap chipmaker Nvidia's (NVDA.O), opens new tab beat-and-raise earnings report re-ignited investors' fervor for artificial intelligence.

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Weekly Schedule

The key reports this week are July New and Existing Home sales. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the "Economic Outlook" at the Jackso...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
 

How The Price Of Chocolate's Key Ingredient Surged More Than 300% In 2024​

May 25, 2024 #CNBC

Chocolate's key ingredient cocoa has soared in price throughout 2024. The soft commodity reached $11,000 a ton for the first time ever, after costing suppliers less than $3,000 a ton two years ago. Factors like crop disease, El Niño, farm gate prices, and speculative market investment have all contributed to the classic sweet's historic run-up. Watch the video above to learn more about the causes of this lengthy move higher in price, and what's next for the industry.

8:28
 
Mario talks about BRICS+ and gold in this one. Interesting vid, nothing to see, can listen in one tab, play around the forum in a different tab.

A Decentralized BRICS+ Monetary System Could Be Up and Running Soon. Gold Will Be a Key Ingredient.​

May 27, 2024 #trade #economics #currency

16:57
 
Asian Markets

Morning Bid: Checking pulse of China profits, eyeing yen action​

May 27 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Trading volume and activity across Asia on Monday will be among the lightest this year owing to the U.S. and UK public holidays, but markets are open and there is no shortage of issues for investors to chew on.

The economic calendar sees the release of Chinese industrial profits figures for April and trade data from Hong Kong, while South Korea hosts a trilateral meeting in Seoul with China and Japan.

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