Commodities, Business & Shipping

Iran Seized Third Tanker - Purity - while US Navy Aims to Increase Presence in Strait of Hormuz​

May 15, 2023

12:41

In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - discusses Iran's seizure of a third tanker (Purity), places the previous two tanker seizures into context and discusses the US reaction.

00:00 Introduction
00:39 Seizure of tanker Purity
03:41 First seizure - Suez Rajan by US, Advantage Sweet by Iran
06:35 Second Seizure - Niovi
07:45 US Response - Drones & MARITIME ACT
10:55 Conclusion

- Iran claims another tanker seizure as US Navy set to increase presence in Strait of Hormuz https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligen...
- US Will Bolster Posture in Persian Gulf as Iran Seizes Third Tanker https://maritime-executive.com/articl...
- My Ship Tracker - Purity https://www.myshiptracking.com/vessel...
- US Confiscation of Iranian Oil Cargo Preceded ‘Advantage Sweet’ Tanker Seizure https://gcaptain.com/us-confiscation-...
- Iran Releases Video of ‘Advantage Sweet’ Boarding in Gulf of Oman https://gcaptain.com/iran-releases-vi...
- Iran Seizes Another Tanker in Strait of Hormuz https://gcaptain.com/iran-seizes-anot...
- Seized tanker Niovi was part of legal dispute with sanctioned entities over suspected Iranian cargo https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligen...
- US Planning More ‘Robots at Sea’ In Middle East To Combat Iran https://gcaptain.com/us-planning-more...
- Iran Busted Trying To Steal U.S. Navy Sea Drone https://gcaptain.com/iran-busted-tryi...
- MARITIME Act of 2023 https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-c...

U.S. nearing debt default: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 5/16/23​

May 16, 2023

11:51

This week, Will and Ben dive into the U.S. nearing debt default.

Market recap (changes on week):
- July corn down $.04 at $5.92
- December 2023 corn down $.14 at $5.15
- July soybeans down $.33 at $14.00
- November soybeans down $.41 at $12.31
- July soybean oil down nearly 4 cents at 49.69 cents/lb
- July soybean meal up $4.00 at $430.90/short ton
- July wheat up $.06 at $6.60
- June WTI Crude Oil down nearly $2.00 at $71.17/barrel

Weekly highlights:
- Weekly US gasoline demand has had a couple up and down weeks but has generally showed strength lately. For the most recent week of data- US demand was up 8% week over week and above last year and the 5-year average. US crude oil stocks were up while gasoline, distillate fuels, and ethanol stocks were all down on the week.
- US ethanol production was down 3 million gallons on the week and below the volumes the same week last year and the 5-year average. Corn used for ethanol continues to lag the pace needed to hit USDA’s target.
- The bearish export sales news continues again this week. After corn sales were negative last week, they were up slightly this week but well below normal volumes. Soybean sales were bearish at 2.3 million bushels falling below all pre-report expectations. For wheat, reported sales less than a million bushels was the second lowest volume of the marketing year.
- Open interest futures and options positions were up across the board last week: Chicago Wheats (up just slightly), Corn (+3.7%), Soybeans (+4.0%), Soybean oil (+3.8%), Soybean meal (+5.9%), Cotton (+2.7%), and Rough Rice (+11.1%)
- Managed money holdings of futures and options positions were mixed with Chicago wheats shedding 15,481 contracts to move back into a net short position, corn bought back 8,503 positions after shedding 100,000 plus the week before and soybeans shed some more positions.
- US agricultural export inspections were mixed on the week. For corn, wheats, and grain sorghum weekly volumes were up week over week but below the monthly average. Soybean shipments were bearish falling below all pre-report expectations.
- The National Oilseed Processors Association April crush report showed a new soybean crush record for the month of April at 173.2 million bushels, but was a little bearish to the soybean market led by burdensome soybean oil stocks.
- USDA’s crop progress report showed 65% of the nation’s corn planted- up 16% from last week and ahead of the 5-year average for this time of the year.
- 49% of the soybean crop planted- up 14% on the week and above average of 36% for this time of year.
- There as been a lot of talk about late planted corn and soybeans in the upper plains but only 40% of the spring wheat has been planted- well behind the average of 57%.
- Winter wheat conditions as a whole were a little better than last week but the good to excellent combined rating was flat at 29%.

Topics:
- Market recap
- Fuel demand
- Export update
- U.S. loans near default
- Corn and soybean planting
- Global wheat tightness
- Reports to watch

A day in the life of a honeybee trucker​

About 75% of crops and one-third of the global food supply rely on pollinators such as honeybees, according to Our World in Data.

But farmers have to rely on commercially managed honeybees trucked in from other states to help pollinate certain crops, such as almonds, because there aren’t enough wild bees to do the job. And trucking bees hundreds or thousands of miles is not simple.

Loading up honeybees almost always happens at night because bees are less active when it’s dark and cooler outside, Earl Warren told FreightWaves.

Earl and Merle Warren are brothers, truck drivers and co-owners of Star’s Ferry Transport, based in Burley, Idaho. They started hauling bees for a local beekeeper in 1990 and moved about 50 loads of approximately 22 million bees each last year for companies such as Browning’s Honey Co.

More:

How LNG shipping kept Europe’s wartime energy supply secure​

A year ago, an armada of ships came to Europe’s aid, bringing U.S.-produced liquefied natural gas to replace Russian pipeline gas supplies lost in the wake of the war. The outlook for the coming winter was dire despite the surge of American LNG cargoes — then it grew even worse.

A fire and explosion took Texas’ Freeport LNG facility offline last June, removing a major U.S. export source. The price of natural gas in Europe hit $100 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in late August, the equivalent of $600-per-barrel oil.

Then someone blew up the Nord Stream pipelines in September, severing Europe’s largest remaining supply of Russian gas. By November, LNG carriers were earning spot rates of $400,000-$500,000 per day — more than any other commercial cargo vessels had in history.

Fast-forward to today. Europe’s natural gas situation is vastly improved, despite receiving far less Russian gas than in 2022.

More:

Trucking's story is America's story, so tell it, says ATA's Spear​

LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas—Trucking has a compelling story to tell, but it's critical that industry voices tell that story using "truth and data" rather than "rhetoric and emotion" to win policy battles at the federal and state levels, American Trucking Associations President and CEO Chris Spear explained here Wednesday.

"Common sense matters, and I think that resonates with both sides of the aisle," Spear said in an address at the 2023 Arkansas Trucking Association Conference & Vendor Showcase. "Why does trucking matter? There are so many issues that this industry touches that are just as important to everyday Americans as they are for trucking. So telling our story from that perspective really disarms our opponents."

The problem, however, is that it's increasingly a challenge to get lawmakers to focus on actually making laws. Noting that his appearance here was his fourth since taking the helm at ATA, Spear recalled that with each visit he suggested the divisiveness couldn't get any worse—yet it has.

More:

National Maritime Day, today, May 22, has come and gone over the years with little fanfare. The critical importance of our national maritime capability — both military and domestic — often is not fully appreciated, as it is easy to take for granted the seamless movement of goods and our military strength. Yet this National Maritime Day occurs in the face of increasing international tensions and should remind every American that our status as a maritime nation is a major source of our economic prosperity, security, and resilience.

Free money for shipping has ended, but banks remain enchanted​

By: AJOT | May 22 2023 at 12:26 PM | Maritime

Executive summary:

• Shipping finance markets remain wide open this year
• Banks are looking to grow their portfolios and are highly competitive with each other in offering the best terms
• Fierce competition between lenders to finance tankers benefits shipowners
• Finance remains available in the declining dry bulk and container markets

Former employees and truck drivers for FreightWorks LLC claim the Rutherfordton, North Carolina-based truckload carrier violated federal law by failing to give a 60-day advance notice of a planned shutdown before firing nearly 200 workers on March 6.

The two named class representatives, Martin Oshea and Misty Chapman, along with 18 named plaintiffs, filed a 17-page amended class action complaint against FreightWorks LLC and its nine entities on May 15, nearly two months after initially filing suit against the trucking company and its entities on March 23.

The plaintiffs claim to have been laid off without cause amid a “mass layoff and/or plant closing” as defined in the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act.

U.S. planting well ahead: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 5/23/23​

May 23, 2023

13:55

This week, Will and Ben check up on planting progress.

-----Market recap (changes on week):
- July corn down $.21 at $5.71
- December 2023 corn down $.06 at $5.09
- July soybeans down $.59 at $14.41- November soybeans down $.34 at $11.97
- July soybean oil down less than 1 cent at 48.77 cents/lb
- July soybean meal down $18.70 at $412.20/short ton
- July 2023 wheat down $.54 at $6.06
- July 2024 wheat down $.42 at $6.61
- June WTI Crude Oil up $.88 at $72.05/barrel

Weekly highlights:
- US gasoline demand was down 4% week over week and down 1% compared to this same week last year. Stocks of crude oil minus the strategic petroleum reserve increased, while gasoline stocks were down, and distillate and ethanol stocks were basically flat.
- US ethanol production increased 6 million gallons last week and used roughly 97.8 million bushels of corn. The volume was down from last year and the 5-year average.
- The Black Sea Grain Initiative was officially renewed for another 60 days putting some bearish pressure on US cash prices.
- US Ag Export sales last week were rather disappointing to old crop markets- net cancelations of corn, milo, and wheats while soybeans were at the bottom end of the trader expectations. Wheat sales were bearish falling below all expectations.
- US agricultural export inspections last week were steady to bullish with corn on the top end of expectations and wheats exceeding all pre-report expectations. Soybeans were down week over week and on the lower end of pre-report expectations.
- Open interest futures and options positions were up across the board last week for the second week in a row: Chicago Wheats (up just slightly), Corn (+4.4%), Soybeans (+6.9%), Soybean oil (+10.0%), Soybean meal (+3.6%), Cotton (+5.0%), and Rough Rice (+5.0%)
- Managed money holdings of futures and options positions were mixed with Chicago wheats shedding another 10,275 contracts following 15,481 contracts last week. Corn bought back 17,658 but still maintain a net short position. Soybeans shed some more positions, down 24,517 to shrink their net long.
- Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report reported 11.6 million head or 97% on feed as of May 1 which was just a smidge higher than the pre-report estimates of 96.7%. Slightly higher April placements led to the higher than expected cattle on feed number.
- USDA’s crop progress report showed 81% of the nation’s corn planted- up another 16% from last week and ahead of the 5-year average for this time of the year.
- 66% of the soybean crop planted- up 17% on the week and above average of 52% for this time of year.
- Spring wheat planting is starting to catch up at 64% of the spring wheat has been planted- behind the average of 73%. I wonder how much of this is planting and how much is farmers deciding to switch crops or take prevent plant.
- Winter wheat conditions as a whole were a little better than last week with the good to excellent combined rating up 25 to 31%.

Topics:
- Market recap
- Corn and soybean planting
- Fuel demand
- Export update
- Black Sea corridor extended
- Wheat condition
- Reports to watch

Russia Planning Year-Round Navigation of the Northern Sea Route (aka Polar Express) in Early 2024​

May 25, 2023
10:15

In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - discusses the announcement by Russia's state nuclear energy corporation and largest natural gas producer along with Vladimir Putin, to open up the eastern portion of the Northern Sea Route in early 2024.

Russia Planning Year-Round Navigation of the Northern Sea Route in Early 2024https://gcaptain.com/russia-planing-y...

LONDON/NEW DELHI, May 25 (Reuters) - Lloyd's Register has told India's Gatik Ship Management, which has become a major carrier of Russian oil since the Ukraine war, that it will withdraw certification of 21 of its vessels by June 3, the maritime services company told Reuters.

It is the latest setback for Gatik, which was also been forced to find new flags for 36 of its ships after they were deflagged by the St. Kitts & Nevis International Ship Registry.

Beef production drops 11% from year-ago levels: Weekly Livestock Market Update for 5/26/23​

May 26, 2023
13:56

Brownfield Anchor/Reporter Meghan Grebner and University of Missouri Market Analyst Scott Brown give a weekly recap of the markets and discuss how it can impact farmers’ bottom lines.

- This week in the markets – Live fed cattle prices were up $3.40 on the week, while feeder cattle prices were $3.00 to $8.00 higher this week. June live cattle were up $1.35 on the week. August feeder cattle were down $1.20 on the week due in part to July corn was up nearly $0.49 on the week. Choice box beef was up $1.55 this week. Cash hogs were unchanged this week. June lean hog futures were down about $6.90 on the week. Pork cutout values were down $1.05 this week.

- Weekly Slaughter Numbers – At the end of the week, cattle slaughter was 625,000 head, down 17,000 on the week and down 16,000 for the year. Hog slaughter was 2.371 million head, that’s down 26,000 from the previous week and up 25,000 on the year. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down 3.2%, while hog slaughter is up 1.4%

- Cold Storage – April 2023 ending beef stocks totaled 448 million pounds, down 6% from last month. Pork ending stocks were 565 million pounds, up 6% from last month. Pork bellies totaled 81 million pounds, 5% higher than last month.

- Livestock Slaughter – Total cattle slaughtered for April was down 9.6% relative to a year ago. Cattle dressed weights were down 1.7%. April beef production was 11.1% below year-ago levels. Hog slaughter down 3.1% relative to a year ago. Hog dressed weights were down 2 pounds. April pork production was down 3.7% from year-ago levels. Year to date beef production down 4.9% while pork production is up 0.9%

- Next week’s reports – Restaurant Performance Index, Quarterly Trade Outlook, and Jobs Report

Panama Canal Draft Restrictions Could Halt Coastal Shift​

May 26, 2023

10.49

In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - discusses the impact of falling water levels on ocean commerce.

- Panama Canal Draft Restrictions Could Halt Coastal Shifthttps://gcaptain.com/panama-canal-dra...
- West Coast Ports Losing 1 Million TEUs Per Year to Eastward Import Shifthttps://gcaptain.com/west-coast-ports...
- The McCown Report - April 2023https://capitallinkshipping.com/wp-co...
- WaterFront Maritime Services https://www.waterfront-ms.com/panama-...
- Panama Canal Authority Gatun Lake Water Levels https://evtms-rpts.pancanal.com/eng/h...

Action in the North Atlantic (1943) MOVIE REVIEW - Better Call Sal!​

May 29, 2023

18:36

In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - reviews the Warner Brothers movie Action in the North Atlantic starring Raymond Massie and Humphrey Bogard.

- Trailer | Action in the North Atlantic | Warner Archive • Trailer | Action ...
- American Merchant Marine at Warhttp://www.usmm.org/
- American Merchant Marine Veteranshttps://ammv.us/
- The United States Merchant Marine at War https://www.maritime.dot.gov/sites/ma..

Negative cash flow could be ahead: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 5/30/23​

May 30, 2023

17:49

This week, Will and Ben discuss farmers' financial future.

Market recap (changes on week):
- July corn up $.32 at $6.03
- December 2023 corn up $.19 at $5.28
- July soybeans down $.20 at $13.21
- November soybeans down $.26 at $11.71
- July soybean oil down more than 1 cent at 47.65 cents/lb
- July soybean meal down $14.20 at $398.00/short ton
- July 2023 wheat down $.05 at $6.01
- July 2024 wheat up $.01 at $6.62
- June WTI Crude Oil down $1.37 at $70.68/barrel

Weekly highlights:
- US gasoline demand surged higher two weeks ago- up 6% week over week and pulled down US energy stocks across the board.
- US ethanol production fell just slightly on the week at 289 million gallons produced. US corn used for ethanol remains below the pace to hit USDA’s target by about 40 million bushels.
- US Ag Export sales were all within expectations this week but continued a trend of declining export sales. Corn sales were negative for the second straight week in a row and third week out of four. Wheat sales were negative for the second week in a row.

Topics:
- Market recap
- Crude Oil adjustments
- Fuel demand
- Export update
- Cash flow expectations
- Reports to watch

Beige Book Comes Out at 1:00 CT; We Should See a Reaction - Ira Epstein's Metals Video 5 30 2023​

May 30, 2023

11:55

The International Longshore Workers’ Union’s local union in Southern California has issued a statement today slamming the actions of foreign ocean carriers and marine terminal operators amid ongoing negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement for unionized labor at West Coast ports.

The Pacific Maritime Association, representing ocean carriers and terminals operators in the negotiations, hit back on Twitter, accusing the ILWU of “concerted” work action that has disrupted operations at multiple ports from Southern California to Washington.

USDA projects export values to decline by $15.4 billion: Weekly Livestock Market Update for 6/2/23​

Jun 2, 2023

16:45

Brownfield Anchor/Reporter Meghan Grebner and University of Missouri Market Analyst Scott Brown give a weekly recap of the markets and discuss how it can impact farmers’ bottom lines.

This week in the markets
– Live fed cattle prices were up $3.80 on the week, while feeder cattle prices were $3.00 to $8.00 higher this week on a light test due to the Memorial Day holiday. August live cattle were up $8.00 on the week, and August feeder cattle were up $7.85 on the week. Choice box beef was up $5.10 this week. Cash hogs were up $1.30 this week. July lean hog futures were up $9.65 on the week. Pork cutout values were up $2.55 this week.
- Weekly Slaughter Numbers – At the end of the week, cattle slaughter was 573,000 head, down 52,000 on the week and down 35,000 for the year. Hog slaughter was 2.033 million head, down 333,000 from the previous week and down 11,000 on the year. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down 3.4%, while hog slaughter is up 1.3%
- Restaurant Performance Index – The April 2023 restaurant performance index declined 0.8% relative to last month and last year. The current situation index was 1.5% lower relative to last month, driving the lower overall index.
- Jobs Report – The May jobs report showed that 339,000 jobs were added, exceeding the expected 190,000 pre-report estimates. The positive jobs report increases the probability of further interest rate hikes.
- Quarterly Trade Outlook – The USDA currently projects ag export values to decline by $15.4 billion for FY 2023. The current projections for FY 2023 were revised $3.5 billion lower than the February projections. Livestock, poultry, and dairy export values were revised $1.2 billion lower, relative to the February forecasts.
- Next week’s reports – Monthly Trade Data and WASDE

West Coast Labor, Ocean Freight Rates, Dry Panama Canal, Shift to East Coast & Suez Canal Rate Hike​

Jun 3, 2023

23:56

In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - discusses the potential of a new Supplychain crisis brought upon by a breakdown in US West Coast labor negotiations, low water levels in the Panama Canal, the shift of cargo from the West Coast to the East/Gulf Coast, tension between the International Longshore & Warehouse Union and the Pacific Maritime Association, and the increase cost to use the Suez Canal.

00:00 Introduction
02:58 Long-Term Shipping Rates Slump
04:54 Profits for Ocean Shipping Lines
07:00 Dry Panama Canal
10:58 Cargo Shifting From West Coast to East/Gulf Coast US
14:45 Tensions Boil Over In West Coast Labor Talks
17:06 Who is the Pacific Maritime Association?
19:04 Suez Canal Increases Tolls
19:31 Will There Be a Supplychain Crisis 2.0?

- Container Shipping Industry Faces Unprecedented Slump in Long-Term Rateshttps://gcaptain.com/container-shippi...
- Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Indexhttps://fbx.freightos.com/
- Container Shipping Sector First Quarter 2023https://capitallinkshipping.com/wp-co...
https://capitallinkshipping.com/wp-co...
https://gcaptain.com/the-feds-inflati...
- Container Evolution https://i0.wp.com/transportgeography....
- Gatun Water Indicators https://evtms-rpts.pancanal.com/eng/h...
- West Coast Ports Losing 1 Million TEUs Per Year to Eastward Import Shifthttps://gcaptain.com/west-coast-ports...
- The McCown Report - Top 10 US Ports April 2023https://capitallinkshipping.com/wp-co...
- Tensions Boil Over In West Coast Labor Talkshttps://gcaptain.com/tensions-boil-ov...
- ILWU June 2, 2023 Statement https://www.ilwu13.com/resources/all-...
- Pacific Maritime Association: Who We Are? https://www.pmanet.org/who-we-are/#bo...
- Pacific Maritime Association: Membershiphttps://www.pmanet.org/wp-content/upl...
- Suez Canal Increases Toll Surcharges for Shipshttps://gcaptain.com/suez-canal-incre...

June USDA supply and demand report preview: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 6/6/23​

6 views Jun 6, 2023
15:57

This week, Will and Ben talk USDA report expectations.

Market recap (changes on week):
- July corn down $.06 at $5.97
- December 2023 corn up $.09 at $5.37
- July soybeans up $.29 at $13.50
- November soybeans up $.08 at $11.79
- July soybean oil up 1.61 cents at 49.26 cents/lb
- July soybean meal up $3.20 at $401.20/short ton
- July 2023 wheat up $.23 at $6.24- July 2024 wheat up $.24 at $6.86
- June WTI Crude Oil up $1.41 at $72.09/barrel

Weekly highlights:
- Oil prices are up this week after a new OPEC+ deal released Sunday became public. Production cuts already in place were extended along with Saudi Arabia announcing that they would reduce production 1 million barrels per day.
- US gasoline demand was down 4% week over week and crude oil stocks, distillate fuel and ethanol all rose on the week.
- US ethanol production increased 6 million gallons to 295 million gallons but remains below the comparable week experienced last year.
- In USDA’s grain crushing report- corn used for ethanol in April was down 5% from March and 1% from April 2022.
- Soybeans crushed for crude oil in April was 187 million bushels- down 11 million bushels from March but up 6 million bushels from April 2022. - US ag export sales were higher week over week for corn and soybeans. Grain sorghum experienced a 3-month high while wheat export sales were bearish in the old crop falling below all expectations.
- Open interest position of Chicago futures and options positions were mixed but pretty flat across our commodities- wheat (+0.0%), corn (-0.7%), soybeans (+0.6%), soybean oil (+0.5%), soybean meal (-0.1%), cotton (+2.0%), and rough rice (+3.1%).
- Managed money accounts largely moderated on the week with wheat and corn both decreasing their net short while soybeans decreased their net long.
- Weekly Ag Export Inspections were neutral on the week as everything was within expectations and close to the same volumes as the week prior.
- Nearly everything that is going to get planted this year except for cotton will be planted by the end of the week- corn at 96%, soybeans at 91%, and spring wheat at 93%. Only 71% of the cotton acres are planted with flooding in the southern plains preventing any progress.
- This was the second week of conditions ratings for corn and the conditions index fell to 368 vs 374 last week and 383 on average. 500 is a perfect score.
- Winter wheat harvest has started with 4% completed- but rains in the southern plains will slow progress this week.

Topics:
- Market recap
- Oil prices
- Fuel demand
- Export update
- USDA supply and demand report adjustments
- Reports to watch

Vessel buildup grows at West Coast ports as maritime supply chain begins to break, echoing Covid chaos​

• There have been delays in processing vessels at terminals within the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
• One shipping expert told CNBC that current vessel wait times are breaking 'normal' and a 'stressed' maritime supply chain not seen since the Covid peak is back.
• The Department of Transportation and Biden Administration are said to be closely watching the developments at the West Coast ports as trade groups from retail to manufacturing warn of economic damage and urge the Biden administration to step in.

Effect of the changes at the Panama Canal on maritime shipping | WGOW Shipping on Freightwaves TV​

Jun 7, 2023

11:20

In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - appears on FreightwavesTV Round Table with Peter Sands of Xeneta to discuss the low water conditions on the Panama Canal and the impact it will have on neo-Panamax vessels. Recorded on June 2, 2023.

Effect of the changes at the Panama Canal on maritime shipping • Effect of the cha...

LONDON, June 8(Reuters) - Countries are racing to prepare for extreme weather later this year as the world tips into an El Nino — a natural climate phenomenon that fuels tropical cyclones in the Pacific and boosts rainfall and flood risk in parts of the Americas and elsewhere.

On Thursday, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that an El Nino is now underway. The past three years have been dominated by the cooler La Nina pattern.

Pork exports up nearly 9% from year-ago levels: Weekly Livestock Market Update for 6/9/23​

Jun 9, 2023

17:35

- This week in the markets – Live fed cattle prices were up $7.70 on the week, while feeder cattle prices were $10.00 to $15.00 higher this week. August live cattle were down $1.20 on the week, and August feeder cattle were down $2.70 on the week. Choice box beef was up $17.30 this week. Cash hogs were up $2.40 this week. July lean hog futures were up $5.40 on the week. Pork cutout values were up $2.00 this week.

- Weekly Slaughter Numbers – At the end of the week, cattle slaughter was 621,000 head, up 48,000 on the week and down 50,000 for the year. Hog slaughter was 2.363 million head, that’s up 335,000 from the previous week and down 3,000 on the year. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down 3.5%, while hog slaughter is up 1.3%

- Monthly Trade Data – April 2023 pork exports totaled 581 million pounds, up 52 million pounds from last April on strength in many countries. Year-to-date pork exports are up 8.7% over the same period last year. April 2023 beef exports were down 36 million pounds from a year ago at 304 million pounds. Beef exports year-to-date are down 9.0% relative to the year-ago level.

- WASDE – USDA raised fed cattle prices another $5.20 a hundred for 2023 in this month’s report. 2024 fed cattle prices were increased to $180 this month. There were few changes to feed costs with the largest coming in current year soybean meal prices which were lowered by $10 a ton for the current year.

- Next week’s reports – Retail Prices and Consumer Sentiment

Federal Reserve signals longer-lasting rate hikes: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 6/13/23​

Jun 13, 2023

7:09

This week, Will and Ben look at expectations for Federal Reserve week.

Market recap (changes on week):
- July corn up $.20 at $6.17
- December 2023 corn up $.12 at $5.49
- July soybeans up $.22 at $13.72
- November soybeans up $.30 at $12.09
- July soybean oil up 4.72 cents at 53.98 cents/lb
- July soybean meal down $3.80 at $397.40/short ton
- July 2023 wheat up $.09 at $6.33
- July 2024 wheat up $.04 at $6.90
- June WTI Crude Oil down $4.86 at $67.23/barrel

Weekly highlights:

- It was a mixed week in the energy sector- ending fuel stocks were largely up across the board including a 26-million-gallon increase to US ethanol stocks. Ethanol production rose 10 million gallons on the week to the largest weekly volume of the calendar year.
- US export sales were fairly consistent on the week- the exception being wheat sales which were bullish, well above all pre-report expectations.
- Open interest position of Chicago futures and options positions were mixed- flat for Chicago wheats, up for corn, soybeans, and soybean meal, but down for soybean oil, cotton, and rough rice.
- Managed money accounts largely added contracts across the board- the exception: Chicago wheats which turned their small net long into a small net short.
- USDA’s June Supply and Demand update include cuts to exports- corn down another 50 million bushels after being cut 75 million bushels in May. Soybean exports down 15 million bushels. 2022/23 corn imports were reduced 15 million bushels. The national wheat yield was increased 0.2 of a bushel to 44.9 bushel/acre.
- US Ag Export inspections were as expected this week, but down week over week for corn, soybeans and all wheats combined.
- Crop conditions deteriorated a little on the week- corn, soybeans and rice all down 3% to 61%, 59% and 67% good to excellent respectively. Cotton conditions were down 2% week over week to 49%
- Winter wheat harvest progresses with 8% completed.

From the link:

The Pacific Maritime Association and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union today have announced a tentative agreement in West Coat labor negotiations, putting an end to more than a year of talks that have had major impacts on the U.S. container trade.

The new six-year contract covers workers at all 29 West Coast ports. Details of the agreement have not yet been released and both sides still need to ratify the new contract before it becomes official.

A joint statement from the ILWU and PMA said the deal was reached with assistance from Acting U.S. Secretary of Labor Julie Su, who joined the negotiations in San Francisco earlier this week.

International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) Agreement​

Jun 15, 2023
8:54

In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - discusses the tentative agreement on the West Coast ports between the International Longshore & Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) mediated by Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su on June 14, 2023.

ILWU and PMA Joint Statement https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyoQC4jX0...

ILWU & PMA Tentative Agreement | WGOW Shipping & Greg Miller Appear on FreightwavesNOW | 15 Jun 2023​

Jun 16, 2023
11:20

In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - appears on Freightwaves NOW along with Greg Miller to discuss the tentative agreement on the US West Coast between the International Longshore & Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA).

Supertanker rate roller coaster: Surprise spike to $91,000 per day​

Friday, June 16, 2023

The supertanker business has a reputation for being one of the most volatile freight markets in the world. It’s living up to its reputation again.

“Supertankers stole the show,” said Clarksons Securities analyst Frode Mørkedal on Friday’s shipping rate action. Average spot rates for older very large crude carriers (VLCCs; tankers that carry 2 million barrels of oil) rose to $83,300 per day. Newer and more fuel-efficient VLCCs earned $91,000 per day, according to Clarksons.

VLCCs specialize in long-haul trades, primarily cargoes to Asia loaded in the Middle East or from Atlantic Basin sources such as the U.S.

The VLCC market is not only important to watch for tanker owners and their investors. Energy exports are a key driver of the U.S. economy — and VLCCs are a central component in the international supply chain of American oil producers.

Read the rest:

As expected, UPS Teamsters voted overwhelmingly Friday to authorize its leadership to call a strike in the event a contract cannot be reached by the deadline of July 31.

About 97% voted to authorize a strike, the union said.

A strike authorization does not mandate a strike or determine that one will be called. UPS has been expecting that the rank and file would vote to authorize a strike.

“This vote shows that hundreds of thousands of Teamsters are united and determined to get the best contract in our history at UPS. If this multibillion-dollar corporation fails to deliver on the contract that our hardworking members deserve, UPS will be striking itself,” said Teamsters General President Sean M. O’Brien. “The strongest leverage our members have is their labor and they are prepared to withhold it to ensure UPS acts accordingly.”

ABF Freight System provided the details of a recently inked tentative agreement with its union workforce Thursday after the market closed.

The new labor deal, if ratified, would provide employees with wage increases, a step up in health and welfare contributions, additional sick time, one more paid holiday and a revised profit-sharing program. The new five-year collective-bargaining agreement with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters would become effective when the current deal ends on June 30.

Hourly wages will increase by a total of $6.50 over the five-year term, with benefits contributions increasing by $4.46 per hour over the same period. The last labor deal between the two parties increased hourly wages by $2 an hour over five years.

Beef retail price sets new record high: Weekly Livestock Market Update for 6/16/23​

Jun 17, 2023

16:38

- This week in the markets – Live fed cattle prices were down $2.25 on the week, while feeder cattle prices were steady to $3.00 higher this week. August live cattle were basically unchanged on the week, while August feeder cattle were down nearly $4.60 on the week as July corn futures were up $0.35 this week. Choice box beef was up $15.20 this week and stands $71.40 above the year-ago level. Cash hogs were up $2.50 this week. July lean hog futures were up $3.00 on the week. Pork cutout values were up $3.40 this week.

- Weekly Slaughter Numbers – At the end of the week, cattle slaughter was 634,000 head, up 18,000 on the week and down 34,000 for the year. Hog slaughter was 2.330 million head, that’s down 28,000 from the previous week and down 32,000 on the year. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down 3.7%, while hog slaughter is up 1.1%

- Retail Prices – The May 2023 retail beef price set a new record at $8.08 per pound, 5.3% above the year-ago level. The retail pork price remained at $4.73 per pound in May, 3.2% lower than in May 2022. May bacon prices were nearly 14% below year-ago levels in May.

- Consumer Sentiment – June 2023 Consumer sentiment rose 8% over May as greater optimism with inflation slowing and the debt ceiling legislation passed. That is nearly 28% above the same period last year.

- Next week’s reports – Livestock Slaughter, Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage

Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI), the world’s only stock index focused on LNG shipping companies, experienced a 0.50% decline. In comparison, the S&P 500 (SPX) index, which represents U.S. stocks, had a 2.58% gain. You can view both indices in the image below.

Ukraine counter-attack shows permanent shift in commodity flows​

Ukraine's military has launched its long-awaited counter-attack to evict Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, from its territory, with battles raging in the Donbas area this June potentially deciding the fate of the conflict which began when Moscow's forces invaded last February.


Oil and gas prices have shrugged off any concerns over the inherent geopolitical risks of war, suggesting commodity flows have made a permanent readjustment. Dated Brent assessed by Platts -- part of S&P Global Commodity Insights – peaked at $137.64/b Feb. 23, 2022, as Russian tanks were poised to attack Kyiv. The measure has fallen 47% in value over the last year of fighting. European gas prices paint a similar picture. The benchmark Dutch TTF month-ahead gas price peaked at Eur319.98/MWh in August last year. It is now trading well below that level, and was assessed at Eur30.575/MWh on June 12.

More: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityi...tack-shows-permanent-shift-in-commodity-flows

Dryness supporting crop prices: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 6/20/23​

Jun 20, 2023

15:42

Market recap (changes on week):
- July corn up $.25 at $6.42 - December 2023 corn up $.45 at $5.94
- July soybeans up $.97 at $14.69
- November soybeans up $1.26 at $13.35
- July soybean oil up 5.11 cents at 59.09 cents/lb
- July soybean meal up $20.70 at $418.10/short ton
- July 2023 wheat up $.48 at $6.81
- July 2024 wheat up $.40 at $7.30
- June WTI Crude Oil up $3.65 at $71.24/barrel

Weekly highlights:
- US ethanol production of 299 million gallons was down 6 million gallons week over week and the below 312 million gallons produced this same week last year.
- The Federal Reserve maintained their 5-5.25% short term interest rate target at their June meeting while signaling rates could increase another 50 basis points in 2023.
- US ag export sales last week, except for wheat, were pretty strong for this time of year. Wheat sales were bearish- falling below all expectations. At 17.6 million bushels- this was the highest soybean volume in 3 months.
- The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 177.9 million bushels of soybeans in May- up 2 million bushels from the average trade guess. The soybean oil stocks volume came in below all pre-report estimates and was bullish to the market.
- Open interest positions of Chicago futures and options positions were mixed- flat for Chicago wheats, down for corn, soybeans, soybean meal and rough rice, but down cotton and soybean oil.
- There were net long gains for corn and soybeans while producer and merchants increased their net shorts by 32 and 24.4% respectively.

If the stock market undervalues an industry like shipping for too long, fewer large companies do IPOs and more large-cap companies that are already public go private. On the other end of the size spectrum, some microcap companies effectively disregard their stock price, raising cash by repeatedly selling discounted shares and warrants even when they’re not in distress.

These simultaneous trends for shipping on Wall Street — one hitting the top tier and the other hitting the bottom — were highlighted at the Marine Money Week conference in Manhattan.

The talk got heated on microcap shipowner share offerings. Accusations were made and expletives uttered within the staid confines of the Pierre Hotel.