Preview of USDA July Reports: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 7/11/23
13:51
Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):
- September corn up $.04 at $4.92
- December 2023 corn up $.06 at $4.99
- August soybeans down $.12 at $14.55
- November soybeans down $.32 at $13.45
- August soybean oil up 1.66 cents at 65.33 cents/lb- August soybean meal down $5.90 at $405.80/short ton- September 2023 wheat up $.05 at $6.46- July 2024 wheat down $.01 at $6.90- June WTI Crude Oil up $2.72 at $72.96/barrel
Weekly highlights:
- US energy stocks were down on the week on higher use. US ethanol production increased slightly to 312 million gallons on the week, but not enough to keep ethanol stocks from declining 30 million gallons. The 105 million bushels of estimated corn use is the largest volume of the calendar year and second highest of the marketing year.
- US Ag Export Sales for 2022/23 were mixed week over week with increases for corn and decreases for soybeans. However, 2023/24 export sales were relatively bullish with strong corn and soybean sales and wheat sales above all expectations.
- Fund holding positions fell hard on the most recent week of data. Corn producer and merchant positions increased as producers looked for coverage while managed money traders sold off 71,054 positions taking corn from a net long to a net short. The pattern was also true for soybeans but to a lesser degree.
- Weekly ag export inspections for the week ending July 6, 2023, were mixed for row crops- bearish for corn, neutral for soybeans, and bullish for wheats particularly soft red wheat.
- US crop conditions increased as expected on the week. The corn condition composite score rose 7 points to 347, but below the 363 last year. Soybeans increased 2 points to 339 compared to 361 last year. Rice increased 11 points to 386.
- 46% of the US winter wheat crop has been harvested compared to 62% at this time last year. The eastern corn belt remains well behind normal.