Ether Has 1 in 5 Chance of Tapping $5K by End-June, DeFi Options Protocol Lyra Says
Traders on Lyra have snapped up ether calls at the $5,000 strike and higher this week.
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The price of ether (ETH) has a 20% chance of rallying to $5,000 by the end of next month, data from the decentralized options marketplace Lyra indicates. The price peaked at $4,692 during the previous bull market, according to CoinDesk data.
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"Lyra options markets are implying a ~20% chance of ETH reaching $5,000 by June 28," Nick Forster, Lyra's founder and a former Wall Street options trader, told CoinDesk in an email. "There is a 20% chance of ETH moving above $5,500 by July 26, as traders have increased positioning post the ETF speculation."
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Coinbase previously claimed that 52 million Americans own cryptocurrency, which indicates an adoption rate of 15.5% based on the Census estimate of 336.5 million Americans. However, according to a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve, only 7% of respondents bought or held crypto in 2023, and only 1% actually used it to buy anything or make a payment.
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According to a new report from digital currency payment provider Triple-A, the global user base for digital currencies climbed to 562 million people in 2024, up from 420 million in 2023. That represents an increase of 33.8% – and is equivalent to 6.8% of the global population.
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Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds are expected to grow to a $450 billion market based on our crypto price forecasts, broker Bernstein said in a research report on Tuesday.
“This would signify flows exceeding $100 billion over the next 18-24 months into crypto ETFs,” analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote.
The broker predicts a bitcoin cycle high of $150,000 in 2025, and has a year-end price target of $90,000.
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BlackRock filed an amended S-1 form for its proposed spot ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) that revealed more information about the product that was recently approved for listing in the U.S.
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Subject to regulatory approval, assets held in the ETF can be redeemed for cash or even ether. The iShares Ethereum Trust ether ETF will list and trade under “ETHA.”
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas called the updated S-1 a “good sign,” adding that a launch by the end of June was “a legit possibility.”
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The bitcoin financial services firm Unchained recently announced a partnership with the University of Texas (UATX) to establish the first long-term endowment fund held in bitcoin (BTC). The goal of this collaboration is to raise $5 million, which will be invested in BTC for at least five years.
In a statement, Unchained characterized this initiative as an important step in the quest to integrate bitcoin into higher education. ...
The approval of spot ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has raised expectations for substantial inflows. However, JPMorgan has cautioned that these hopes may be overly optimistic compared to spot bitcoin ETFs. The investment bank’s analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, managing director and global market strategist, explained in a report on Thursday:...The initial market reaction to the launch of spot ethereum ETFs is likely to be negative … We believe the demand for spot ethereum ETFs would be a fraction of that seen for spot bitcoin.
The investment bank’s analysts expect net inflows of $1 billion to $3 billion for 2024 if spot ethereum ETFs launch by the end of the year. They noted that inflows could potentially triple if staking is included in the ETFs, contingent upon congressional action to classify ether as a commodity. However, they cautioned that similar to Grayscale’s bitcoin trust, Ethereum ETFs might experience outflows once trading begins. They wrote:...We expect around $1 billion to exit the Grayscale Ethereum Trust as speculative investors, who previously bought the ETHE in anticipation of it being converted to ETF, are likely to take profit, thus exerting downward pressure on ethereum prices soon after the launch of spot ethereum ETFs.
... former billionaire and All In podcast "bestie" Chamath Palihapitiya has predicted bitcoin could "completely replace gold" as countries adopt it--potentially pushing it's market capitalization toward gold's $15.7 trillion.
"There's an increasing body of countries that will become dual-currency," Palihapitiya, who claimed to have bought $1 million worth of bitcoin in 2010 when it was trading at around $80, said on the podcast he hosts along with fellow investors David Friedburg, Jason Calacanis and David Sacks.
"They will look at their local currency and they will look at bitcoin. And they will say both of these two things are needed. The first for when they're transacting on a daily basis for goods and services and the second when you need to buy a permanent asset that needs to have residual value, they'll buy bitcoin."
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Thailand has approved launching its first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), joining a growing list of countries embracing regulated Bitcoin investment vehicles.
The Thai Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) endorsed asset manager One Asset Management (ONEAM) to introduce a Bitcoin ETF, according to the Bangkok Post. The ONE Bitcoin ETF Fund is scheduled to be distributed between May 31 and June 6
Under the Thai SEC's rules, the ETF will be limited to wealthy and institutional investors. This follows the regulator amending local guidelines in April to permit restricted Bitcoin ETFs targeting professional investors.
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Thailand follows the trail blazed by the US SEC, which approved several Bitcoin ETFs this January, sparking surging interest. Other jurisdictions, such as Hong Kong, Australia, and the UK, have since followed suit in issuing spot Bitcoin ETFs or similar products.
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Bitcoin (BTC) options traders are increasingly positioning for the asset to hit fresh record prices this month, market data suggests.
"Our desk saw strong bullish follow-through with significant call buying for June expiries, indicating positioning in the options market for a decisive break of 74,000 all-time-highs this month," digital asset hedge fund QCP said in a Wednesday market update.
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Joshua Lim, co-founder of crypto derivatives principal trading firm Arbelos Markets, noted "very concentrated call buying" on Tuesday with about 1100 contracts purchased of June 28 expiration call spreads in $74,000-$80,000 strikes, representing around $80 million notional demand.
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VanEck has a new price target for ether (ETH), the native token of the Ethereum protocol: $22,000 by 2030.
That would be a massive jump from current levels of around $3,850.
The global investment firm, which has applied to list an ether exchange-traded fund (ETF), and forecasts that ether ETFs could be larger than their bitcoin counterpart, wrote in a recent report that ether will soar to that lofty level because of Ethereum’s disruptive power and cashflow generated for token holders.
Ethereum is disrupting the finance, banking, payments, marketing, advertising, social, gaming, infrastructure and artificial intelligence sectors, VanEck wrote. The prediction is also based on the expectation ether ETFs will get approved and the company’s ”read of on-chain data.”
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Crypto investment products took on nearly $2 billion in inflows last week to help extend a five-week run to over $4.3 billion, asset manager CoinShares said in a Monday report.
Trading volumes in exchange-traded products (ETPs) rose to $12.8 billion for the week, up 55% from the week prior. Bitcoin led investment activity at over $1.97 billion inflows for the week, while ether (ETH) saw its best week of inflows since March at nearly $70 million.
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“A price target of $10,000 in 2024 is now a reasonable target especially when other supportive factors, like ETH now being deflationary, are taken into consideration,” Hindi added.
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A record 19-day streak of net inflows in U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ended Monday as the products saw a combined $65 million in net outflows, preliminary data shows.
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Such outflows came amid a market-wide slide in the cryptocurrency market and losses in broader stock markets. Traders on Monday warned of a volatile week ahead of a week as investors await a U.S. CPI reading on Wednesday and U.S. treasury secretary Janet Yellen’s speech scheduled on Friday – which can cause a reaction in riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies.
The Fed’s monetary policy is also to be decided at a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting starting today, which may further add to market uncertainty based on comments.
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Hedge funds and commodity traders are buying spot bitcoin ETFs while selling CME futures, or basis trading, aiming to profit from the futures market premium relative to spot prices, according to BitMEX Research.
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A crypto wallet labeled “German Government (BKA)” by the crypto onchain analytics firm Arkham started moving Bitcoin on June 19, sparking curiosity among the community. The wallet movements have led many to believe the German government is selling its BTC holdings.
According to Arkham data, the crypto wallet has held nearly 50,000 Bitcoin (BTC) since February 2024, before moving nearly 6,500 BTC on June 19. ...
Nasdaq-listed software firm MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin (BTC), has acquired another 11,931 BTC for $786 million, according to a Thursday morning press release.
Led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, the company as of the end of April held 214,400 bitcoins. This latest acquisition brings the company's total holdings to 226,331 tokens worth just under $15 billion at bitcoin's current price of roughly $66,000. The company's bitcoins were purchased at an average price of $36,798 each, or roughly $8.33 billion.
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Bearish sentiment became more pronounced in the crypto market early Monday after defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox, which is supposed to return over 140,000 BTC to victims of a 2014 hack, said it will begin repayments next month. Bitcoin slipped to $60,723, registering an over 5% loss on a 24-hour basis at one point. Ether and the broader market followed suit, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) also falling more than 5%. Broadly speaking, bitcoin's recent retreat from above $70,000 has taken the shape of a double top bearish reversal pattern. However, spot and futures volumes in bitcoin and ether markets on centralized exchanges have been considerably softer than record highs in March, according to FalconX. That's a sign of decreased investor participation or conviction in selling action, often a characteristic of a "bear trap."
Catching a falling knife is risky, but some crypto options traders look to be doing just that, betting on a bullish outcome in a falling market.
Ethereum's native token ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, has dropped over 5% to $3,350 in one week, according to CoinDesk data. The decline follows speculation that ether ETFs could begin trading in the U.S. next month and is consistent with weakness in market leader bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies.
Still, according to Amberdata data, some traders have been buying large numbers of ether September expiry call options at the strike level of $4,000 on crypto exchange Deribit.
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"Looking at the block flows this week, we see a ton of buying activity for the September $4,000 calls," Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said, adding it is a sign of traders betting that "if ETH gets above $4k we likely test and breakout new all-time-highs."
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On Monday, financial services firm Nomura Holdings and its digital asset arm Laser Digital released the results of a survey titled the “Institutional Investor Survey on Digital Asset Investment Trends,” which found that more than half of institutional investors surveyed in Japan expressed intentions to invest in the crypto sector in the next three years.
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In a significant expansion of its cryptocurrency offerings, Vaneck has announced the filing of the first U.S. exchange-traded fund (ETF) focused on Solana. This move marks a strategic enhancement of Vaneck’s digital asset products, according to Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research.
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Filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 27, 2024, the Vaneck Solana Trust will operate under the ticker symbol TBD, with its shares expected to be listed on the Cboe BZX Exchange. This initiative follows the increasing demand for digital asset investment products that offer both security and regulatory compliance.
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