Crypto trading/market thread

$300 Billion Coming To Bitcoin ETF w/ Mark Yusko​

"Why You NEED To Own Just 0.1 Bitcoin (BTC)" | Michael Saylor 2024 Prediction​

pmbug said:

I imagine that Max Keiser's Twitter/X account would be a good follow if you want to keep tabs on the Volcano Bonds.

Click to expand...

...
In the past 24 hours, a whale has traded nearly 92,600 ETH call option contracts worth $150 million on the crypto exchange Deribit, according to options data tracking website Greeks.Live. On Deribit, one options contract represents 1 ETH.

"The whale actively bought $150 million worth of notional ETH calls, and all of them were naked buys, with clear long-term bullish expectations," Greeks.Live tweeted on X.

Call options give the purchaser the right but not the obligation to buy the underlying asset at a predetermined price at a later date. A call buyer is implicitly bullish on the market. A naked position is taken speculatively without cover or protection against adverse movement in the underlying asset's price.

The large flow was concentrated in the so-called out-of-the-money (OTM) calls at strike levels well above ether's current market price of $1,633. Whales blocked over 40,000 contracts of ETH December expiry call at $2,200 and nearly 50,000 contracts of October expiry call at $2,000. A block trade is a large transaction negotiated over-the-counter of outside of the exchange's order book to ensure minimum impact on the market price of the asset. Block traders are considered a proxy for institutional activity.
...

Click to expand...

... Kitco Crypto spoke with Richard Mico, the U.S. CEO and Chief Legal Officer of Banxa, a payment-and-compliance infrastructure provider for the global crypto industry.
...
When asked what options the SEC has after an appellate court ruled that the regulator must review Grayscale’s application to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF, Mico said the ruling “makes it clear that the SEC’s denial of the spot BTC ETF was ‘arbitrary and capricious’ because it was inconsistent with the SEC’s treatment of similar products, namely the futures BTC ETF.”

“A very embarrassing outcome for the SEC,” he said. “Given this was a unanimous decision of the Court of Appeal, the SEC has no real chance of a successful appeal. Accordingly, the SEC only has two options, withdraw the approval for the futures BTC ETF or approve the spot BTC ETF.”

Mico said that while “Some consider the SEC’s historic petulant approach to crypto regulation means they will seek to further unreasonably stifle the crypto industry,” he is “far more optimistic.”

“The Grayscale ruling has materially increased the likelihood of the spot BTC ETC being approved to ~80% in my estimation,” he said. “I am confident that the SEC will, begrudgingly, approve the various spot BTC ETF applications between October 2023 and March 2024. This ruling and, in turn, the inevitable approval of the spot BTC ETC will open the floodgates for traditional investments in Bitcoin, enhancing the credibility and influence of this digital asset.”
...

Click to expand...

• On Friday, 117,000 BTC options contracts and 1.1 million ETH options contracts will expire on Deribit.
• Max pain levels for BTC and ETH are $26,500 and $1,650, respectively.
• Traders expect prices to remain stable ahead of the expiry.

...

Click to expand...

Tech behemoth Microsoft has inadvertently revealed its plans to integrate a crypto wallet with the popular Xbox gaming console, leaked internal documents posted on the Resetera gaming forum last week show.

According to a report from The Verge, unredacted documents in the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) case against Microsoft – where the regulator is attempting to block the company’s $69 billion purchase of Activision Blizzard – included communications between Xbox executives that detail plans for a new disc-less Xbox Series X, a gyro controller, and a next-gen hybrid Xbox to be released in 2028.

Also included in the documents was an Xbox roadmap from May 2022 that detailed plans to integrate a cryptocurrency wallet into the next version of the console.
...
“Digital assets and gaming have always been closely tied in concept,” said Michael Silberberg, head of investor relations at AltTabCapital. “This isn’t just about this one niche of the game ecosystem either. Across the gaming industry, in-game micro-transactions account for nearly ? of all gaming revenue globally. Microsoft’s inclusion of cross-chain wallets in Xbox will allow the next generation of game developers to enable players to create and retain real value from in-game worlds, facilitating actual digital asset ownership, decentralized player-driven markets, and reduced fraud in digital economies.”

Integrating crypto “can disrupt and supercharge the $76B (2023) in-game microtransaction market,” he added. “Opening the gaming digital marketplace to crypto assets has the potential to increase the number of participants by 2.5 billion gamers in the digital assets market, which will not only increase the number of transactions but strengthen the position of digital assets in the global economy.”
...
Microsoft is also rumored to be working on integrating a non-custodial Ethereum (ETH) wallet into its Edge browser, but details on that development, including a potential release date, are scarce.
...

Click to expand...

In May 2023, we announced the launch of Coinbase International Exchange: a new, non-US exchange, accompanying a class F license from the Bermuda Monetary Authority (BMA) to allow non-US institutions to trade perpetual futures. Today, we are excited to announce that Coinbase International Exchange has received additional regulatory approval from the BMA to extend perpetual futures trading to non-US retail customers. In the coming weeks, we will begin to offer eligible customers access to regulated perpetual futures contracts on Coinbase Advanced. ...
...
At Coinbase, our perpetual futures contracts have been built within rigorous compliance standards on Coinbase International Exchange and have already seen over $5.5 billion in notional trading volume from institutions as of Q2. ...

Click to expand...

Stablecoin issuer Circle has intervened in the Securities and Exchange Commission’s case against major crypto exchange Binance, arguing that financial trading laws shouldn’t spread to stablecoins whose value is tied to other assets.
...
Now Circle argues that assets tied to the dollar such as BUSD and its own USDC can’t constitute securities, in part because its users don’t expect any profit from standalone purchases.

“Payment stablecoins, on their own, do not have the essential features of an investment contract,” meaning they fall outside of SEC jurisdiction, Circle’s filing said. “Decades of case law support the view that an asset sale — decoupled from any post-sale promises or obligations by the seller — is not sufficient to establish an investment contract.”

The SEC alleged BUSD was sold as an investment contract because Binance marketed it as offering yield through reward programs. Binance, its U.S. arm and its owner Changpeng “CZ” Zhao last week filed to dismiss the SEC case, arguing the regulator is seeking authority over digital assets without congressional authorization.
...

Click to expand...

In a move that was expected following last week's decision to delay a ruling on the ARK 21Shares spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF), the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has pushed its decision on multiple applications from other financial institutions, including BlackRock.

As noted by Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart, Thursday filings by the SEC showed that the regulator has delayed its decision on the applications by BlackRock, Valkyrie, Bitwise, Invesco, and Galaxy Digital.
...

Click to expand...

Babylon, the blockchain project with a mission to transform Bitcoin into a decentralized staking asset, has taken a significant step forward by unveiling its Bitcoin Staking Protocol Minimum Viable Product (MVP) at the Cosmoverse 2023 conference.

The Bitcoin Staking Protocol MVP marks a significant stride toward unlocking the full potential of idle bitcoins while enhancing the security and economic health of PoS chains. This innovative approach has garnered support from within the industry and showcases the ongoing evolution and diversification of the blockchain and cryptocurrency space.
...
Babylon is set to focus on adoption within various ecosystems, with particular emphasis on the Cosmos network of blockchains. In the Cosmos ecosystem, the top ten protocols have over $2.5 billion worth of staked assets, demonstrating significant potential for Babylon’s innovative protocol.

Notably, Babylon secured seed funding from well-known backers such as IDG and Breyer Capital, who have previously supported industry giants like Coinbase and Circle. This financial backing will play a pivotal role in advancing the development and adoption of the Bitcoin Staking protocol.

Click to expand...

pmbug said:

All crypto is up slightly, but Solana (SOL) is up over 18% this weekend with trade volume on par with Ethereum (ETH).

Click to expand...

Bitcoin (BTC) rose above the $28,000 mark early Monday to log its highest prices in over a month as analysts pointed to ETF optimism and seasonality as a few reasons behind the gains.

Traders at Japanese exchange Bitbank were already eyeing the $28,000 level for bitcoin last week, as CoinDesk reported. The $28,500 acted as a major support level in the previous bull market and could be a key price level to watch for in the coming weeks as it potentially flips into a level of resistance.

In the past 24 hours, ether (ETH) bumped over $1,700, bnb (BNB) and cardano (ADA) added 3.3%, while polygon (MATIC) rose 5.5%. Solana’s SOL tokens led major gains at 14.5%, mainly on renewed optimism for the network among some traders.

Short liquidations on crypto-tracked futures may have contributed to the rise in bitcoin and ether. Data shows some $94 million in bets against rising prices were impacted on Sunday, creating a “short squeeze” – which occurs when there is a lack of supply and an excess of demand for the stock due to short sellers having to buy stocks to cover their short.

Some 30,000 bearish bets were liquidated, the data shows, with most liquidations taking place on the crypto exchange OKX.
...

Click to expand...

A federal judge has rejected the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s bid to appeal its ground-shaking loss against Ripple, the crypto company associated with the XRP token.
...
District Judge Analisa Torres said in a brief ruling Tuesday that the SEC had failed to meet its burden under the law to show that there were controlling questions of law or that there are substantial grounds for differences of opinion.

The decision isn’t a complete loss for the SEC, though. The judge set an April 2024 trial date for other issues that still need resolution. The agency may still try to appeal the overall case after.
...

Click to expand...

A new decentralized finance data platform could underpin future regulation of crypto market actors, according to a study released by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Wednesday.

Project Atlas has initially been used to map out significant international flows between crypto exchanges, said a proof-of-concept report issued jointly with the Dutch and German central banks.

“We are developing a new and important public good for central banks globally,” Cecilia Skingsley, head of the BIS Innovation Hub, said in a statement. “Data on cross-border flows are relevant for areas like payments and macroeconomic analysis.”

“Though relatively small compared with total on-chain network traffic, identified flows between crypto exchanges are significant and substantial economically,” said the study, which initially looked at transactions on the Bitcoin network. “The output of Project Atlas could serve as a starting point for preliminary assessments and inform the drafting of data reporting requirements and regulation of crypto market actors.” The project fuses off-chain data gathered from crypto exchanges with public blockchain data gathered via operating a node, the document said.
...

Click to expand...

...
Avalanche tokens seemed to get a boost as demand increased after popular accounts on social app X, formerly Twitter, seemed to promote an application built on the blockchain.

Stars Arena as it is called, is similar to Friend.Tech, a viral app that allows Ethereum users to buy “shares” of X accounts in return for certain privileges. The platform recorded over 600,000 transactions since Monday, DappRadar data shows.

AVAX prices jumped as much as 6% on Wednesday before retreating, while on-chain data showed a nearly 40% increase in transactions since the start of this week.
...

Click to expand...

"Hashrate" refers to the total combined computational power that is being used to mine and process transactions on a Proof-of-Work blockchain, such as Bitcoin ...
...
For most Proof-of-Work (PoW) blockchains, the block reward – a predetermined amount of free coins given to a miner each time a new block is mined – undergoes a programmed halving in order to incrementally reduce the total supply over the course of a coin’s mining lifespan. For Bitcoin, block rewards are cut in half every 210,000 blocks or approximately every four years. As of 2021, miners receive 6.25 bitcoins each time they mine a new block. The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur in 2024 and will see BTC block rewards drop to 3.125 bitcoins per block. ...
...
The hashrate is an important metric for assessing the strength of a blockchain network – more specifically, its security. The more machines dedicated by honest miners to discovering the next block, the higher the hashrate rises and the harder it becomes for malicious agents to disrupt the network.
...
More and more miners have entered the fray in Bitcoin's short history, pushing the hashrate up.

The most likely reason for new miners joining the highly competitive space is because of bitcoin’s extreme price potential. Increase in demand for bitcoin (which is a scarce asset) has pushed the price above $33,000 per coin, at press time, attracting more operators who see mining as an opportunity to make significant returns.

Any increase in the number of miners pushes Bitcoin's difficulty up, which then drives the hashrate up.

Click to expand...

searcher said:

Ferrari...

Click to expand...

A false report that the U.S. approved a crypto-based exchange-traded fund led to a bitcoin price rally Monday. However, such products are likely to be greenlighted in January next year, analysts said.

Bitcoin BTCUSD, +4.36% briefly reached as high as $29,976 on Monday with a 10% increase, before giving up most of the gains, according to CoinDesk data.

The rally was spurred by a now-deleted post on the social platform X by the crypto news service Cointelegraph, which said that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission had approved BlackRock BLK, +0.94%’s application for an ETF that invests directly in bitcoin. “We apologize for a tweet that led to the dissemination of inaccurate information regarding the Blackrock Bitcoin ETF,” Cointelegraph said in a follow-up statement on social media.
...
The agency faces a final deadline to respond to ARK Invest and 21Shares’s spot bitcoin ETF application by January 10, 2024, and BlackRock’s application by March 15 next year.

“We believe there’s a 90% chance of approval by Ark’s Jan.10 deadline,” James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence wrote in a recent note.
...

Click to expand...

How To Steal And Lose More Than $3 Billion In Bitcoin | CNBC Documentary​

The Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (FMCBG) of the Group of Twenty (G20) – the intergovernmental forum comprised of 19 sovereign countries, the European Union, and the African Union – announced that they have formally adopted the G20 roadmap on crypto assets during their meeting in Marrakesh, Morocco on Wednesday.

The roadmap, which was created at the request of the Indian G20 Presidency, was proposed in a joint report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) titled “IMF-FSB Synthesis Paper: Policies for Crypto-Assets” in September. ...

Click to expand...

...
Asset management giant Fidelity filed an amendment to its proposed spot bitcoin ETF, the Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) late Tuesday, specifying how it will safeguard customers’ bitcoin in custody accounts and disclose risks related to the shaky regulatory environment around cryptocurrencies, among other factors.

Fidelity follows Ark Invest and Invesco, which also recently amended their spot bitcoin ETF filings. Invesco refiled on Oct. 11 and Ark Invest followed suit a day later. These developments are likely a sign of ongoing discussions between prospective ETF providers and the SEC – helping spark bullish sentiment among traders, market observers said.
...

Click to expand...

...
Estimates of when exactly the next halving will occur vary, but history indicates it has the potential to occur sometime around April 2024.1 Based on current data,1 signs indicate that crypto winter may be in the past and that crypto spring is likely on the horizon. ...

Click to expand...

Bitcoin (BTC) will rise to as high as $56,000 if a BlackRock spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is approved, crypto services provider Matrixport said in a report Thursday.

At the low end, $42,000 is a "conservative estimate" based on the assumption that 10%-20% of gold ETF investors will take a stake in a spot bitcoin ETF.

"Assuming that 10-20% of those precious metals ETF investors seek to diversify their investments into BTC," Matrixport said in its report. "We can estimate potential inflows of $12-24 billion into the Bitcoin ETF. While the market cap of GBTC is currently only $17-18 billion, it reached a peak of $44 billion. Therefore, our estimate of $12-24 billion is relatively conservative."
...

Click to expand...

...
"Options worth $4.5 billion will expire on Friday. That's a particularly high value of which an uncommon percentage is set to expire in the money (ITM) due to the recent market move potentially prompting some market action," Strijers said.
...

Click to expand...

MoonPay is thrilled to announce that we’re teaming up with Mastercard to drive innovation and strengthen consumer connections.

Together, MoonPay and Mastercard will explore how Web3 tools can enhance experiential marketing—including across Mastercard's renowned sponsorship portfolio—to connect with consumers in new ways.

MoonPay will also work closely to embed Mastercard products and solutions to drive even more trust, compliance, and efficiency across the industry.

Commenting on the partnership, MoonPay’s co-founder and CEO Ivan Soto-Wright said this is a big step forward for Web3.

“We’re excited to collaborate with Mastercard, a prominent supporter of Web3 and the digital economy, to redefine customer loyalty and engagement,” Soto-Wright said. “Joining forces will create new opportunities to showcase blockchain’s potential in establishing unique connections and meaningful moments while broadening our industry’s overall reach.”

Otherlife, a subsidiary of MoonPay that provides Web3 creative agency services, development, strategy, and experiential services, will play a key role in the partnership.

Mastercard continues to invest in blockchain technology and deliver differentiated experiences to bring trust and transparency into the evolving space.

Earlier this year, the company launched the Mastercard Artist Accelerator, a Web3 and music education platform that empowered musicians to create, collaborate and monetize their work using Web3 tools and resources.

In addition, MoonPay will also leverage Mastercard Crypto Credential, a set of common standards and infrastructure that helps to validate trusted interactions between consumers and businesses using blockchain networks. We will also explore how Mastercard’s leading payments technology, including Mastercard Send and Click to Pay, can be integrated into MoonPay’s Web3 stack.

Click to expand...