Electoral predictions

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Cigarlover

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I've got Trump at 266.

Hope I'm wrong but I just don't see anyway to overcome the fraud apparatus the left has in place. Of course not even a peep out of congress as they are more than likely in on it. How else did millions of illegals get flown in here from around the world on our dime and no-one said a word about it in DC.
 
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Cigarlover said:
I've got Trump at 266.

Hope I'm wrong but I just don't see anyway to overcome the fraud apparatus the left has in place. Of course not even a peep out of congress as they are more than likely in on it. How else did millions of illegals get flown in here from around the world on our dime and no-one said a word about it in DC.
Click to expand...
Last time I ran the #s I had him around 300....PA is still the key in my opinion....with the swing states there are so many unknowns its almost impossible...but she pretty much has to sweep the rust belt to win....so I think I would rather have his path than hers....I don't see him losing ga/nc/AZ unless there is a fraud problem...he does seem to have momentum...but what do I know I'm garbage redneck deplorable gun toting Bible thumping hillbilly 😆 so I'm biased.....turnout will be the decider so it's great to see the heavy rep and ind early voting
 
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538 said:
...
Now that we are in the closing days of the 2024 presidential race, pollsters have started releasing their final readings of the campaign. They have mostly been a mixed bag. On Friday, Marist College released their highly-anticipated final polls across the Midwestern states, finding Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by 3 points in Michigan, 2 points in Pennsylvania and 2 points in Wisconsin. That would be good news for Harris if those were the only polls released this week, but they weren’t: An Echelon Insights survey found Trump up 5 points in the Keystone State, and CNN/SSRS has the former president up by 1 in Georgia. In aggregate, this has been enough to push our model modestly back in Harris’s direction. Currently, our forecast gives Trump a 51 out of 100 chance of winning the election, and gives Harris a 49 out of 100 chance.
...
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projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

I was going to include Nate Silver's prediction, but since he split from 538 and went independent, he's put his work behind a paywall:
... the topline Electoral College numbers are unchanged down to the decimal point. ... We are likely locked into something roughly in the toss-up range, ...
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www.natesilver.net

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
www.natesilver.net www.natesilver.net

This page aggregates (lists) election forecasts from numerous sources:

2024 Presidential Election Forecast Maps - 270toWin

Compare the current 2024 Presidential map projections of various political pundits. Use any of the maps to create and share your own 2024 forecast
www.270towin.com www.270towin.com
 
No numbers.

I think Harris will win the popular vote by a wide enough margin that there will be no doubt.
 
Harris can only win thru voter fraud and stuffing boxes. If she wins then the entire campaign and fraud machine are massive and our freedoms are over. Expect more government intrusion, censorship and taxes.
 
🇺🇸 🗳 Kamala Harris has not yet fully understood what her election program is, a Russian expert says

Meanwhile, Republican candidate Donald Trump knows what he stands for, and this is his main advantage, Dmitry Suslov, a senior researcher at the Russian School of Advanced Studies in Economics told Sputnik.

In addition, the Democratic Party candidate virtually ystays away from interviews because she has nothing to say, and is unable to hold a free dialogue, noted Suslov, who is a deputy director of the Center for European and International Studies at this educational institution.

👉🏽 She cannot explain why the failures and mistakes of Joe Biden's administration should not be hers too, he added.

Subscribe to @sputnik_africa

🔸 Sputnik Africa (https://en.sputniknews.africa/) 🔸

 
In any fair election with no dominion machines counting the votes, Trump wins by a landslide. My personal opinion is that we probably don't even know the full capabilities of these machines and there is really nothing to stop them from switching votes after all the votes have been cast. Especially in a blue state that is switching to red. Middle of the night they switch it back to blue with a little programming glitch. SOS of that state certifies the results and game over. No challenges accepted because apparently no-one has standing.

Something about this just doesn't feel right to me. It didn't last election either. When you think it couldn't possibly get any worse than a Biden Harris ticket because no-one could be dumber than Harris, along comes waltz. And now we have the Harris waltz ticket. Harris, the person who couldn't get 1 vote in the 2020 primaries and who has been the worst VP in the history of the US, is now neck and neck with Trump Vance.

Trump and Vance do more than 6 hrs of podcasts on Rogan, arguably the most important media outlet in the world right now, and have clear intelligent conversations the entire time. Policies laid out and goals for the future of the US.
Kamala can't make it. She's too busy to do Rogan and any short interview is a bunch or word salad that says absolutely nothing.

As we can see from the reporting, the fraud machine is very real. Sadly who will prosecute the fraudsters? Elections are a state issue and out of the hands of the feds. So the states probably won't prosecute many if any of them and even if they do they will get a slap on the wrist and probably a hefty payment via some obscure government program or grant.

Lets also remember when HOLDER was in, he funneled billions into leftist organizations via the DOJ. BLM, Antifa ect. We also had Lerner weaponizing the IRS against conservatives. And now we have this administration that created NGO's that have spent billions bringing in shit cards from shit hole countries. Our tax dollars being used against us. If Trump loses this election those millions that were brought here will become voters in the next election and conservatives will never win another election. Not in our lifetimes anyway.

Lara Trump in charge go the RNC seems to have made a huge difference so there is that and I do see that as a very positive result. She is on top of this fraud stuff and shutting it down at ever possible opportunity. It like playing whack a mole with these people. fraud just popping up everywhere and machines switching votes or not working.
So if Harris wins we have truly devolved into dumb and dumber running the country. This election is really Trump versus the fraud.
 
Goldhedge said:
🇺🇸 🗳 Kamala Harris has not yet fully understood what her election program is, a Russian expert says

Meanwhile, Republican candidate Donald Trump knows what he stands for, and this is his main advantage, Dmitry Suslov, a senior researcher at the Russian School of Advanced Studies in Economics told Sputnik.

In addition, the Democratic Party candidate virtually ystays away from interviews because she has nothing to say, and is unable to hold a free dialogue, noted Suslov, who is a deputy director of the Center for European and International Studies at this educational institution.

👉🏽 She cannot explain why the failures and mistakes of Joe Biden's administration should not be hers too, he added.

Subscribe to @sputnik_africa

🔸 Sputnik Africa (https://en.sputniknews.africa/) 🔸

Click to expand...

Joe won in 2020 and never left his basement. Avoiding interviews and saying nothing seems to be a winning strategy for the left.
 
searcher said:
I wonder how accurate this stuff is? ...
Click to expand...

...
Heavy criticism has been levied at polls in recent years, particularly in the last few rounds of presidential elections. Even in 2020, when most polls correctly predicted Biden's victory, the "national surveys of the 2020 presidential contest were the least accurate in 40 years," Politico said.

Does this mean that polls just aren't accurate? Not always, but they can present a different picture than reality. This is largely because "the real margin of error is often about double the one reported," Pew said. Many polls typically have a margin of error less than 3%, which "leads people to think that polls are more precise than they really are." But this margin "addresses only one source of potential error: the fact that random samples are likely to differ a little from the population just by chance."

There are at least three other identifiable sources of data errors that can come from poll taking, Pew added, but most polls don't calculate these metrics into their margins of error. The differing approaches in how polls are taken can also have "consequences for data quality, as well as accuracy in elections." As a result, the actual margin of error in most historical polls is closer to 6% or 7%, not 3%, said a 2016 study from The New York Times. This represents an error range of 12 to 14 data points, the Times said.
...
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More:

theweek.com

How accurate are political polls?

And how much should you read into figures ahead of the 2024 election?
theweek.com theweek.com

I have wondered if in this age of high tech surveillance, scams and social media blowback if the sampling of people less inclined to share their political opinions/thoughts with pollsters might be skewing results. I know that I'm not sharing any information with someone at the other end of a random phone call.
 
pmbug said:
More:

theweek.com

How accurate are political polls?

And how much should you read into figures ahead of the 2024 election?
theweek.com theweek.com

I have wondered if in this age of high tech surveillance, scams and social media blowback if the sampling of people less inclined to share their political opinions/thoughts with pollsters might be skewing results. I know that I'm not sharing any information with someone at the other end of a random phone call.
Click to expand...
I’m voting for Nobody. Because Nobody cares.
 
What you bet Jimmy Carter takes a dirt nap right after the election?

24/7 MSM gushing over his life hiding all the election fraud...?
 
Waiting for Antifa goons to appear at (R) election centers to harass the voter.
 
Looks like AZ and GA have the best chances of flipping back to Trump. After that I think Wi and Pa are his best chances. He only needs 1 of those to win. Mn and Mi are probably lost forever.
 
Huge turnout this morning in our little village hall. We always arrive when the polls open, and we are usually in the single digits, but today we were voter numbers in the 30s. Probably about 60 people in line. Lots of new voter registrations taking place.

Looking at the people, I'd guess the majority were conservative voters... by far.
 
Democrats are going to cheat their asses off. That's the only way they win and continue the destruction of America. The media will all sing, in unison, "There is no proof of voter fraud". Despite counties receiving more votes than there are registered voters.

fraud19.jpg

fraud21.jpg
 
More an opinion piece than a prediction.

ritholtz.com

Who’s Gonna Win? - The Big Picture

Over the past few weeks, clients, reporters, friends, and family have frequently asked this. Who’s Gonna Win? is a loaded question for anyone. We all live in our happy little bias bubbles. I work in NYC, a Democratic stronghold, but I also live in Nassau County, which leans GOP. Any strong...
ritholtz.com ritholtz.com
 
Peter89 said:
Say Trump/Vance win. Can the Dems refuse to certify the election result?
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People can try to do anything. Whether or not it is legal or acceptable to the masses (ie. if they can succeed) is a different question. I honestly don't expect much wrangling over the election results from either side unless there is convincing evidence of shenanigans that significantly impacted the result.
 
Peter89 said:
Say Trump/Vance win. Can the Dems refuse to certify the election result?
Click to expand...
and we all know he never did...

14th Amendement​

Section 3.​

No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any state legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any state, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.


Imagine that...

Screenshot 2024-11-05 at 6.57.00 PM.png
 
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Goldhedge said:
and we all know he never did...

14th Amendement​

Section 3.​

No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any state legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any state, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.
Click to expand...
The time to play that card would be before the election.
 
Looking very good rn. I don't think there's enough votes left in PA and Wi for a steal to occur.
 
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