Four minute 30 cent spike

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ancona

ancona

Praying Mantis
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Silver is off the cjharts today! I just watched a huge spike in just about four minutes time we got a thirty cent spike. Something is up in the silver pit today. I hope this is the start of another massive spring fling!
 
YET ANOTHER ADVANTAGE to already having decent sized hoards of PMs:

-- You keep buying on the spike up. Why? You keep building up a higher "cost basis"... You just keep the receipts at the higher prices... My average cost basis (gold): that would be $1500, bitchez. Look at my receipts, oh, but I did not keep them all, silly me.
 
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I see right now (12:00 noon) that both the gold and silver charts may have to change their scales soon, as the lows of the day were at the open and the highs right now, both prices at the very bottoms and tops (respectively) of each graph... NICE SPIKES!
 
Heh, I'm digging it, I didn't take the last trading sell signal on either and just held...it really was different this time...at least for the moment. Putting on those stops now.
 
Not quite on topic, but I've been buying BTE and HES on the dips too - they seem to respond quicker to the flood of fiat than even gold and silver. Tight stops there - if this becomes a real political football, you can expect a big dip in the oil co's. You can watch the prices of oil futures to get some minutes or hours of heads up too - a nice feature of that, as for that - they move slower than gold ETFs that seem to get the futures priced in instantly.

If you're playing a game, for blood or money, it pays to choose to play against people not as good at it as the gold etfs sometimes....(not even considering they're probably fake anyway).

While I'm being OT, I have to say my trade of the year, last year and so far this one, has been in AGNC, which pays $1.25 (per quarter)/16.27% dividends, bought on dips, usually around the ex dividend or (gosh people are dumb) dividend payout dates.
Lookee this - I'm up over 11% on these holdings (which are huge) since October last and the next ex div date is march 5...Maybe not as good as gold on good spurts, but it ain't bad either.
agnc1yr.png
 
Now we're up a buck seventy. How come this feels like a set-up? Silver is going too far, too fast. I think we'll see a small correction before the weeks is out, barring any geopolitical disconnections.
 
My own rule, ancona - and I've been hurt bad when breaking it - is if it feels too good to be true, it is, or will be soon. If trading, this makes me put on the close stops. If I'm wrong, the opportunity cost isn't high - I can buy back in and still catch most of the move anyway, but if I'm right and it was too good to be true - then I get to keep all my money to buy back in at the new bottom, or a lot closer to that.
 
DC,
My DCA is quite low, since I got in at around 9 bucks and stopped big buys at 18. What I want to do is what I did last year. I sold a thousand ounces at 40 something, then bought it back at 29. If I can do that once a year, I can earn back the 130,000 it cost us when the wife spent three months in the hospital with Leigonella pneumonia in 2010
 
Probably obvious to the paper traders here, but for the peeps who don't follow the charts for technical analysis every day:
With silver breaking above the $37 level and gold trading $20 higher, today King World News interviewed legendary Jim Sinclair’s chartist Dan Norcini. Norcini told KWN what we are seeing today is a major breakout in the silver market and panic from the shorts: “Today we are seeing a strong move higher in silver and in gold, but particularly the silver market, which is up over 4%. Once silver took out $35.50 in a strong push, they ran a huge number of stops to the upside. There were a lot of shorts covering, Eric, there was literally a panic among the silver shorts.”
...
“You have strong resistance in silver showing between the $40 to $41 level. That’s where silver is going to encounter some selling. If silver breaks above that resistance level, we should see a move to the $45 area.

It’s important to note that silver has now broken above its 50 week moving average and that average has capped this market going all the way back to October of last year. So, as I said this is a very significant breakout, Eric.

This last COT report showed hedge funds net long 28,000 contracts in silver. The highest level the hedge funds have held is net long 48,000 contracts. So these hedge funds have an awful lot of contracts they can add if they decide to start piling back into the silver market. You can certainly make the case that silver is not excessively crowded, even though we’ve had a pretty good run here.”
...
Click to expand...

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...Literally_Panic,_Gold_Shorts_Now_Worried.html
 
ancona, you're a heck of a lot more patient than I am! But that might work better too. From that PMBug is saying - short squeeze - your intuition might be right this time. Once the shorts are all squeezed out, the first seller triggers a pullback, and buyers wait for it to be over before getting back in. I play that pattern all the time in many things. It's only the slower runups that get the mom and pop longs pulled in during the rise to make it last a long time - takes them awhile to get the news and get going on it.
 
Here we go again! Just look at that five minute spike! Just like yesterday, five minutes - thirty two cents. Brilliant. My fear here is that teh shorts will eventually have so much skin in the game that they go all in for a viscious take-down.
 
Look at the drive by shooting man! Nearly a buck in seven minutes or so. This is horseshit.
 
So, we have a $2.25 takedown as of right now. Where the hell is the CFTC on this shit???

No one can tell me this is anything other than price manipulation by an organization with the ability to throw unlimited amounts of un-backed paper at this bitch. I'm so mad I think my fucking skull is going to explode.

I want a head on a fucking stick.......that's what I want.
 
FWIW, more QE seems to have been priced in and the bernanke just took that off the table. Gold the same, markets the same. When optimism fails, it's usually pretty ugly, and it looks like your gut was right, ancona - it WAS too good to be true.

So the heads you want are the bozos who ran things up while you were cheering them, and Benanke who popped their balloon just now by not agreeing to wreck the economy even quicker with more fiat.

Interestingly, of the etfs, PHYS held value .5% better than GLD in that one, and did less of a relative volume increase. A very good illustration of my point when I talk about who's on the other side of a trade determining your best strategy.
 
contextually.. I don't see anything wrong here. It was just a sharp down move. we probably bottom in the next 2 days then hopefully we stabilize next week. Under that scenario we should fly.
 
It wasn't just gold and silver - it was commodities in general (oil and copper too, for example) and quite a few other things. This was "hopes of more QE dashed", it looks like to me, along with that dollar spike having the usual effect on everything.

So a lot of people bet wrong, and reversed their positions, all at once, on a lot of things. The stuff that attracts the faster money got slammed more than other things.

Short euro (in dollars) had a pop just before.
 
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