India gold demand (Diwali)

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Despite record high prices, consumer buying during Diwali was strong in both gold jewellery and bars and coins.5 Markets and media reported higher footfall at jewellery stores and robust buying of coins via online as well as offline platforms. Promotional events and marketing campaigns undertaken by jewellers to lift sales.6 The price increase since Diwali 2023, has enhanced consumer sentiment, positioning it as a long-term investment. And volatility in domestic equity markets, coupled with rising international prices, has added to gold’s investment appeal. Anecdotal reports suggest that auspicious ‘token’ purchases were rather broad-based, spanning regions and demographics.

Despite a y/y drop in the volume of gold sold,7 the value of sales increased, driven by the higher price.
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The country's gold imports in November reached a record high of $ 14.86 billion, registering a four-fold increase, mainly on account of festival and wedding demands, according to commerce ministry data.

Gold imports stood at $ 3.44 billion in November 2023.

Cumulatively, imports during April-November this fiscal year rose 49 per cent to $49 billion as against $32.93 billion in the same period last fiscal year.
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In the Budget, the government slashed the duty from 15 per cent to 6 per cent.

India's gold imports, which have a bearing on the country's current account deficit (CAD), surged 30 per cent to $ 45.54 billion in 2023-24.
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India cuts November gold imports by record $5 billion​

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January 15 marked the end of an inauspicious buying period on the Hindu calendar, but demand weakness appears to have persisted into the current month.
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According to the World Gold Council, many retailers are not restocking due to the high prices because they face challenges in making payments to wholesalers, creating a liquidity crunch in the industry.
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India's gold imports are set to tumble 85% in February from year ago levels to their lowest in 20 years, with demand sapped by record prices for the precious metal, a government official and three bank dealers told Reuters.
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"Banks and jewellers have cleared a very small amount of gold from customs so far this month. Unless prices crash in the next 2-3 days, we are unlikely to see any improvement in the import numbers," said a government official, who declined to be named as he was not authorised to talk to the media.
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Indians have become heavy investors in gold after a downturn in local equities, with a boom in exchange traded funds driving purchases as the commodity’s price hits record highs.

Net inflows to gold ETFs in India reached a record Rs37.5bn ($437mn) in January and Rs19.8bn in February as the metal touched all-time highs, according to the Association of Mutual Funds in India.

Falling share prices have pushed Indians to an asset they have long been fond of, said analysts, with ETFs making it easier for retail traders to invest.
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“There has been a shift from gold jewellery into pure investments,” said Kavita Chacko, the WGC’s India research head.

Investors have been “redirecting free cash flow towards gold ETFs” amid “ongoing global and domestic economic and policy uncertainty”, the WGC wrote in its latest India report.
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nickndfl said:

Pretty soon only rich individuals, central banks and hedge funds will own gold. The few thousand ounces the people.on the forum hold are above average, but nowhere near the real players.

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India is considering importing gold and other high value items, including silver, platinum and precious stones from the US to address Washington’s concern of a significant trade deficit with India, two people aware of the matter said.
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