Unobtanium
Big Eyed Bug
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Its not really a disaster for the gold community is it ?
China feels the need to hide its gold strategy and a few watchful commentators / analysts loose access to a useful piece of data.
Availability of real gold and demand for delivery is not easy to identify though and probably never will be, even after paper suppression blows up.
Well, Y-Day is here! We've waited for years for the Chinese and their Shanghai Gold exchange to offer a competing Price "fix" to the existing structure out of London...and it all starts tomorrow! How will this impact the gold market? At what price will the Shanghai Fix come in?
By about 8:30 London time tomorrow morning (3:30 am EDT), we'll know. And won't it be fun to find out? How will this process work? At what price will tomorrow's yuan-denominated Fix be set?
From a "process" stand point, I don't suppose it will be radically different. The current spot market will be assessed and a "fix" price will be set. Then, for the next 24 hours, this will be the accepted price for wholesale gold that is transacted in yuan. Come Wednesday, the Fix will be reset to a new price according to market conditions.
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And what a good day it was for all the metals.
How much did this new exchange effect todays price movements ?
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The days of JP Morgan controlling the silver market may be numbered as a new player in the silver market has arrived. For the past several years, JP Morgan held the most silver on a public exchange in the world. While the LBMA may hold (or did hold) more silver, their stockpiles are not made public.
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Here we can see that JP Morgan’s total silver inventories have declined from 69.4 Moz to 67.2 Moz, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver stocks have increased from 54.7 Moz to 60.6 Moz. If the Shanghai Futures Exchange continues to add silver at this rate, it will surpass JP Morgan in a two to three weeks.
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In an interesting development on Wednesday 12 September, the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) launched trading of a new Chinese Gold Panda Coin contract on the SGE trading platform. With the addition of this listing, the SGE now offers physical trading of these famous Chinese gold bullion coins alongside its extensive range of physical gold bar and ingot trading contracts. As a reminder the Shanghai Gold Exchange is the largest physical gold exchange in the world, and nearly all gold in the Chinese gold market passes through the SGE.
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"SGE Trading to facilitate Price Discovery"
no timescale though .............
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Analysts note that both Japanese and Chinese investors have become significant gold buyers in recent weeks as the precious metal has hit record highs against the Japanese yen. At the same time, gold premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange vs. prices in Comex gold futures have hit record highs.
The price premiums in China have started to attract significant attention on social media, with many analysts commenting on this unprecedented environment.
In an interview with Kitco News, John Reade, chief market strategist at the World Gold Council, said that a perfect storm is brewing in China's gold market as the government appears to be curbing imports as demand remains reasonably elevated.
Reade noted that premiums on the SGE vs. Comex futures were up 6.4% Thursday, the highest level he has seen since he started monitoring the gold market.
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China's central bank has lifted temporary curbs on gold imports that were imposed on some lenders in a bid to defend the renminbi but caused the price of the precious metal to rise in the country.
The spread between the Shanghai gold price and London hit a record $121 per troy ounce last Thursday, according to calculations based on public traded prices.
The spread narrowed to $76 today after the People's Bank of China relaxed curbs on imports of the precious metal last week, said people familiar with the informal order given to some state and midsized commercial banks.
China in August had reduced and stopped granting quotas for international gold imports by banks to ease a rush in purchases to hedge against a weaker domestic currency. The renminbi fell to its lowest point against the dollar in 16 years in early September after the release of disappointing economic data. ...
Back in the day people did not really use much physical gold for regular purchases. They would carry some gold coins and convert them into silver at the bank. If they were buying bigger ticket items, then they used gold coins or certificates.
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A clear indication of the increased demand is the spread, or premium, shown by gold prices in China over the spot price in London, which is measured in dollars per troy ounce.
The spot price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was around 470 yuan ($65) per gram as of Tuesday morning. That translates to a roughly $40 premium.
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That graph was from December 1st and the last data point showed ... <puts on reading glasses... grabs mouse to enhance.. enhance...>... slightly over 1400 tonnes of silver. In the last month and half, it's fallen to ~935 tonnes. That's slightly over 1/3 of their inventory gone since the graph was published. If that rate of decline holds true, they will run out of inventory in about 3 months.
Chengtong PM limited
The global shift in the gold market continued unabated in January as trade data from Switzerland showed robust flows of the precious metal to Eastern nations.
In its latest trade report, Switzerland said that 207 tonnes of gold were exported from Europe’s largest refining hub to China, India and Hong Kong. According to reports, gold exports out of Switzerland reached an eight-year high.
“Shipments to India rose 73% to 14 tons, to China it more than doubled to 77.8 tons, to Hong Kong it rose almost 7x to 44.6 tons,” said commodity analysts at MKS PAMP Group in a note Tuesday.
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Exactly. Either China has import quotas or foreign companies need a permission to send to China and sell in Shanghai.A 10%+ difference seems like an Easy arbitrage opportunity. That would pay for the hassle and shipping costs to drain the COMEX of all their silver.
... for arbitrageurs to jump in
the premium!Who says they haven't already?
the premium!
That could be indicative of other things like import restrictions, international transportation issues (costs, insurance, etc.), liquidity, etc.the premium!
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