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I have mixed views, as it all seemed to be ramping up rather quickly ( too quickly ) and needed time to consolidate.
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... precious metals were pummeled lower the last few days, breaking back down below $1500...
The question on many investors minds is...why?
The answer is surprisingly simple... China's Golden Week Holiday.
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As of Tuesday, China will be on vacation for its Golden Week National Holiday and this weakness appears to be traders front-running the traditional chaos that the rest of the world plays when China leaves the playing field.
China will be back in business on October 9th, and that means the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which opened in 2015 to counter Western manipulation of precious metals, will likely help re-balance prices to where they were before this recent takedown.
We could be wrong, but something tells us gold and silver prices won’t stay this low for much longer and that they could well see a complete turnaround when China reopens on October 9th.
the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which opened in 2015 to counter Western manipulation of precious metals
Gold gets a rare compliment from the Financial Times:
Investors around the world are hurrying back to bullion.
Holdings in gold-backed exchange traded funds have risen to their highest levels in seven years, following $19.2 billon in inflows last year. Analysts say interest has picked up for a variety of reasons, ...
But chief among them is a giant mound of negative-yielding debt, now tipping the scales at more than $13 trillion. If buyers of bonds are being asked to pay for the privilege of holding them to maturity, then the appeal of gold -- which yields nothing but also costs nothing to hold on to -- is burnished.
"You're seeing flows into the metal. It's a global trend," said John Hathaway, co-manager of the Sprott Gold Equities fund. "The typical havens of safety are not that safe anymore and gold is getting a bid for that reason."
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How long will the $1,580 remain?
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Perhaps Friday’s Comex price fall had something to do with the CME Group on Thursday 27 February, where they raised maintenance margins on the Comex 100 oz gold future (GC) by 10% from 5000 to 5500, claiming it was a “normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage“. Those margin changes went into effect at close of business on Thursday 27 February (effective as of Friday 28 February). So the stress of higher margin requirements could be a contributing factor to the Comex selloff.
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Update (0952ET): Cash indices have reopened after their 15-min circuit-breaker halt and are extending losses. The Dow is down 2000 points!
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As we noted pre-open, S&P futures were locked limit-down 5%, but as we noted SPY was trading down 7.5% in the pre-open...
and now that the cash S&P 500 has opened and tumbled 7%...
...it is now halted for 15mins as the first major circuit-breaker has kicked in. As a reminder:
- If the S&P 500 declines 7%, (208 points), trading will pause for 15 min
- If declines 13%, (386 pts) trading will again pause for 15 mins
- If falls 20%, (594 pts) the markets would close for the day.
Additionally, Canadian stocks are down 7% at the open, the most since 2008; and Brazilian stocks are down 10% at the open, triggering their circuit breaker.
This has entirely erased all the Fed liquidity-add gains...
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