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International Monetary Fund representatives have told China that the yuan is likely to join the fund’s basket of reserve currencies soon, according to Chinese officials with knowledge of the matter, a move that may make more countries comfortable using the unit or including it in their foreign-exchange holdings.
The IMF has given Chinese officials strong signals in meetings that the yuan is likely to win inclusion in the current review of the Special Drawing Rights, the fund’s unit of account, said three people who asked not to be identified because the talks were private. Chinese officials are so confident of winning approval that they have begun preparing statements to celebrate the decision, according to two people.
The Washington-based lender is reviewing the composition of the basket, with staff members due to present their recommendation to the fund’s executive board for a vote as soon as next month as part of a process scheduled for every five years. ...
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At least $1 trillion of global reserves will migrate to Chinese assets if the yuan joins the IMF’s reserve basket, according to Standard Chartered Plc and AXA Investment Managers.
Foreign companies’ issuance of yuan-denominated securities in China, known as panda bonds, could exceed $50 billion in the next five years, according to the World Bank’s International Finance Corp.
“Once the Chinese yuan becomes part of the SDR, central-bank reserve managers and institutional investors will automatically want to accumulate yuan-denominated assets,” Hua Jingdong, vice president and treasurer at IFC, said in an interview in Lima earlier this month during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings. ...
A seminar about gold supporting the internationalization of the renminbi and China’s financial strength was held in Beijing on 18 September 2015. One of the keynote speakers was Song Xin, President of the China Gold Association (CGA), Chairman of the Board of China International Resources Corporation, President of China National Gold Group Corporation and Party Secretary, who believes China’s economic power must be serviced by appropriate gold reserves to support the renminbi. ...
Recently, the Central Bank announced to increase gold reserves to the public many times in succession. In fact, it’s the strategic layout and major move for laying the renminbi’s international credit foundation. We always suggest formulating and boosting national gold strategies in pace with national financial strategies positively, further improving the quantity and proportion of gold in national foreign exchange reserves, developing occupancy volume of gold production and increased gold resources. We further suggest perfecting the gold market, promoting foreign currency in individuals, boosting Chinese and western wealth flowing, improving our control power of global gold wealth flowing, accelerating renminbi internationalization, helping the renminbi enter special drawing rights currency basket, rebuilding international currency system, balancing American hegemony process, and positively displaying the due function of gold and the gold industry. ...
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China is now adopting a more “hands-off” approach after the IMF included the yuan in its SDR basket, analysts say.
China may not be engaged in competitive devaluation. The PBoC may just want to “release pent-up market pressures (for a weaker RMB) ahead of the Fed” decision to hike rates next week, noted HSBC‘s Paul Mackel. HSBC pointed out that China has tightened its capital control by suspending the RQDII scheme, which allows onshore domestic institutions to buy assets in the offshore market.
Societe Generale, which is more bearish on the yuan, is more worried however:Further RMB depreciation risks a currency war, either directly by policymaker actions or indirectly by investors shorting Asian currencies as a proxy trade. These factors risk destabilizing the EM FX universe.
The International Monetary Fund welcomed China's yuan into its elite reserve currency basket, recognizing the ascendance of the Asian power in the global economy.
The IMF's executive board concluded that China's currency has met the two criteria for inclusion - having achieved "gateway" status due to the issuing country's export volume and how freely it can be traded.
IMF managing director Christine Lagarde called the decision "an important milestone" in the integration of China's economy into the global financial system, and said it also recognizes the progress that Chinese authorities have made in recent years in reforming monetary and financial systems. Indirectly, it might have a beneficial effect because the Korean economy depends so much on the yuan and this gives more legitimacy to having the Chinese yuan as a reserve currency.
The renminbi will make up just under 11-percent of the weighting of the IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket when it's finally included.
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... The yuan's weighting surpasses that of the yen at 8.33% and the pound at 8.09%. ...
China today welcomed the US Congress' ratification of the 2010 quota and governance reforms of the IMF that will give more voting rights and "enhance" the representativeness of emerging economies including India at the international institution.
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"The 2010 reforms will double the IMF's quota resources from SDR 238.5 billion (about USD 329.83 billion) to SDR 477 billion about (USD 659.67 billion), while shifting 6 per cent of quota shares to dynamic EMDCs. China's quota will increase from 3.996 per cent to 6.394 per cent, making China the third largest shareholder in the IMF from the sixth," a PBOC statement said,
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"Four emerging market countries (Brazil, China, India, and Russia) will be among the ten largest members of the IMF," the IMF said yesterday.
The US Congress yesterday passed a legislation approving long-pending quota reform of IMF that will give more voting rights to emerging economies like India and China in the functioning of the organisation.
The IMF Quota and Governance Reform would marginally reduce the voting share of traditional economic powerhouses like the US.
More news on the Germany front. The immigrant muslims that merkel was so happy to let stay have had gangs robbing, raping and well in general acting like muslims act. The govt. has been trying to keep it quiet but the news is getting out now.
The global financial system has become dangerously unstable and faces an avalanche of bankruptcies that will test social and political stability, a leading monetary theorist has warned.
"The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up," said William White, the Swiss-based chairman of the OECD's review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
"Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such levels in every part of the world that they have become a potent cause for mischief," he said.
"It will become obvious in the next recession that many of these debts will never be serviced or repaid, and this will be uncomfortable for a lot of people who think they own assets that are worth something," he told The Telegraph on the eve of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
"The only question is whether we are able to look reality in the eye and face what is coming in an orderly fashion, or whether it will be disorderly. Debt jubilees have been going on for 5,000 years, as far back as the Sumerians."
The next task awaiting the global authorities is how to manage debt write-offs - and therefore a massive reordering of winners and losers in society - without setting off a political storm.
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Helicopter money — not to be confused with quantitative easing — is coming. And possibly sooner than you think.
This week, between Wednesday and Saturday, the World Economic Forum meets in Davos, Switzerland.
All the global elites will show up. Think of it as the mecca of globalisation. I explained yesterday that these elites — the same ones who'll be in Davos this week — want inflation. And "helicopter money" is their answer.
How do I know?
I can see signs of it already. Here's one very powerful sign…
The intellectual groundwork is well underway
A man named Adair Turner is one of these global financial elites I expect will be at Davos. He was the former chairman of the Financial Services Authority.
He is now the head of a think tank called the Institute for New Economic Thinking, which is funded and sponsored by George Soros. You can think of Adair Turner as George Soros's high-calibre intellectual stalking horse.
Turner has a new book out that I recommend you read. It's a bit technical, but not long. It's called Between Debt and the Devil. The title says it all.
I read this book late last year. I took it very seriously and said to myself, "Here's the blueprint. Here's the game plan for the Super Bowl of debt monetisation."
This book is the elite blueprint for helicopter money. That blueprint relies a lot on Keynesian dogma, which I explained in detail yesterday.
But there's a new twist that wouldn't have had much traction in Keynes's day.
The gist? That it doesn't matter how much money central banks print.
The global financial elites see nothing troublesome about the fact that the Federal Reserve has taken their balance sheet from $800 billion to $4 trillion.
Moreover, because the world didn't come to an end when the Fed expanded their balance sheet by so much, they should consider taking it to $6 trillion... $8 trillion… perhaps even $20 trillion.
The Fed would add more government securities to their balance sheet. And they'd make it a permanent, noninterest-bearing debt. In other words, debt monetisation — all of it just goes away.
This is the type of thinking that's popular among these elites. And they're getting ready to put it into action.
It will "work"
Helicopter money is coming. And it will "work." Maybe not right away or in the next six months. But it could happen in late 2016. With enough helicopter money, they will actually produce inflation.
I'm not defending these policies. I'm simply relaying how a lot of economists and global elites think.
The world is stuck in a deflation trap right now. You can see it in the falling price of commodities, in the global economic slowdown and in leading indicators like stock markets, which are pointing toward a recession.
Deflation will give Davos attendees a sense of urgency to stoke inflation. And helicopter money will be conversation in the hallways, in the private meeting rooms and over drinks.
With all the other failures in quantitative easing and currency wars that I've described over the last eight years, the only tool left is debt monetisation (aka helicopter money).
Don't be lulled into a false sense of security. After seven years and $4 trillion of Federal Reserve money printing after the 2008 crash, you may think to yourself, if hyperinflation were ever going to happen, it would've already.
When your savings are wiped out, you can't say you weren't warned.
Jim Rickards
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Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence said it may be worth exploring a “new style” of gold standard for China to adopt.
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The only way to save the economy is to crash it.
There’s too much of everything and it’s not good for anyone. It’s hurting everyone. Paradoxically, abundance is now the enemy. This sets us apart from virtually every other society throughout history.
You can blame the Federal Reserve’s loose money policies if you’d like. There is over-investment in every industry. It’s killing confidence. Nothing is worth what it used to be. We haven’t adjusted to this reality yet.
Unlimited music, nine dollars a month.
Unlimited movies and TV shows, thirteen dollars a month.
Unlimited news and journalism, zero dollars a month.
Facebook is free. Twitter is free. Snapchat is free. Instagram is free. Youtube is free. Video game apps are free. Texting is free. Sexting is free. Skyping is free. Chatting is free. Why would you spend money on anything? Where do you think people spend their time now? Endless entertainment and content, for almost nothing.
Oil costs almost nothing too. We have so much there’s no where to even store it. Natural gas supplies are overflowing, they’re burning it off at the wellhead. Coal demand is going extinct. Copper prices, iron ore prices – it’s going bidless. No one wants it, they keep producing more regardless. Why? “I don’t know, it’s what we do.”
Portfolios are free. “Give us a billion dollars, we’ll lose money on the cost of managing it for you.” Online asset management firms are spending $600 to acquire a customer that will pay them $60. Their financial backers love it. “It’s user growth!”
What’s the business model? “We go public or get bought out by someone with the opposite problem – too much profit, not enough user growth.” The business model is an exit for the investors. “BlackRock will eat it. They’ll eat anything.” No one cares how many actual business models get wrecked in the process. How many useful jobs are lost in the process. The new fixed income or currency trader on Wall Street will never need health care, or take a vacation or grab a female co-worker’s ass. It’s a chip on a server. Much cheaper to employ, much easier to manage.
Automate everything, outsource the rest – it’s cheaper for the customers. “But now there are no customers left, no one has the money to be a customer anymore.”
Congrats on your efficiency.
Start up
Cash in
Sell out
Bro down
“Let’s take a product or service that people used to charge for, make a worse version and give it away for free!” Why would we do that? “Bro down.”
Clay Christensen’s book on disruption, ‘The Innovator’s Dilemma’, has been twisted into an entirely different book. It was once the Bible, now it’s the Necronomicon – the book of the dead.
Even money is free. The people and firms with the least need to borrow it can borrow it with abandon. Apple can have as much money as it wants, virtually free. They have no idea what to do with it. The US and German and Japanese governments can borrow for free. Then what? There is nowhere to put the money and no will to risk using it for the future. The electorate is old. They don’t care about the future. They don’t have one, just a present. We live in their basement. We live in their extended past.
Malinvestment is everywhere. The capital markets runneth over. “Give us something with an income stream to put our money into! Even the promise of an income stream will suffice.”
Here’s the perfect business idea for this environment: Open a Hundred Dollar Bill Store™. You sell hundred dollar bills for ninety dollars each. You’ll lose ten dollars per transaction but you’ll do a trillion in revenues in year one. Maybe you show an ad to everyone who walks into the store and you break even. User growth with be on the order of 1000% per month. A billion users. You’ll be the biggest IPO of all time when Goldman’s underwriters get wind of that growth rate. Go public and let someone else worry about a competitor selling hundred dollar bills for eighty-five.
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Europe is a larger trading partner to China than the U.S., so the yuan/euro cross-rate is actually more important to the Chinese economy. What happened under the Shanghai Accord was a coordinated devaluation that went unnoticed because China took no official action and the yuan/dollar cross-rate was unchanged. It was an invisible devaluation of the yuan.
Japan and Europe were the losers in this round of currency manipulations. Japan was the winner in 2013 with Abenomics. Europe was the winner in 2014 with negative rates and Euro QE. Now it was the turn of China and the U.S. to get a lift.
The U.S. and China are the world’s two largest economies. If they go down, the whole world goes down with them. Both economies were showing signs of weakness. It was time for Europe and Japan to give it up to China and the U.S. That’s the legacy of the Shanghai Accord.
What’s next? There’s another secret G-20 meeting on April 16, 2016. This will take place on the sidelines of the IMF spring meeting in Washington, D.C. ...
At the April conclave, I expect the Big Four (Japan, U.S., the eurozone and China) to leave exchange rates alone for the time being. They’ll want time to evaluate their work following the Shanghai Accord before taking next steps.
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This information involves the secret “Shanghai Accord” reached on the sidelines of the G-20 central bankers meeting in Shanghai, China, on Feb. 26.
The situation confronting the central bankers was the following: China needs to devalue its currency to rescue its economy. But the last two times China devalued against the U.S. dollar (August 2015 and January 2016), the U.S. stock market sank like a stone. This threatened to set off global financial contagion that could lead to a repetition of the 2008 panic, except worse. The challenge was to find a way to give China some currency relief without igniting a global stock market collapse.
The solution is to recognize that the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan are not the only two currencies in the game. China has a larger combined trading relationship with Japan and Europe than it does with the U.S. The secret plan devised by the central banks has three parts: Tighten in Europe and Japan, ease in the U.S. and maintain the U.S.-China peg.
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The secret summit took place on Feb. 26. Our hypothesis was that a plan to give China some relief was on the front burner. What subsequent facts enabled us ... to confirm or contradict the hypothesis?
We used the following:...
"Intervention in foreign exchange markets in order to gain a competitive advantage is unacceptable," proclaims US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew in a strongly worded statement today with regard America's position in the global economy. That we note this comment is only relevant as, despite the apparent "stability" of the Chinese Yuan against the USD, relative to the 13-currency-basket with which China primarily trades, the Yuan has collapsed to 17-month lows - with JPY and EUR appearing to bear the brunt of the pain.
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On April 1, 2016, China’s central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan announced that the Chinese government will take actions to promote the use of SDRs in its domestic economy. The announcement was made at the end of a meeting of the G20 in Paris, which is hosted by China this year. China will start to use both the USD and SDRs when reporting its foreign reserves. In addition, the country will also consider issuing bonds denominated in SDRs. ...
Gold got a surprise lift from Haruhiko Kuroda after the Bank of Japan governor opted against boosting stimulus in a decision that battered the dollar and put prices on course for the longest run of gains in more than 11 weeks.
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... The BOJ decision to hold off went against the forecasts from a slight majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who’d projected additional action. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 1%, the biggest drop since March 17, as the yen rallied.
“A weaker dollar index, due to a stronger yen, as the BOJ decided not to introduce more stimulus at its board meeting today ...
The global monetary elites had a conference in Zurich, Switzerland, last week. Among the speakers were William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Claudio Borio, chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements.
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How do you get all the major economies in the world to create inflation without relying on destructive currency wars that merely shuffle money around between winners and losers?
The answer is very interesting. It’s a two-part answer, really. And they’re both coming. You could call it a master plan for global inflation…
I explained yesterday how the monetary elites are looking to engineer higher gold prices to generate inflation since nothing else has worked. That’s the first answer. The evidence is very strong for that hypothesis.
The second part of the answer goes by the name of helicopter money. You’ve probably heard all about it. Helicopter money is different than QE, quantitative easing. ...
Let me explain technically how helicopter money does work. It’s a combination of monetary policy and fiscal policy. The central bank controls money printing, but it can’t control government spending. That’s up to the Congress.
With helicopter money, the monetary authority and the fiscal authority work together. When Congress wants to spend a lot more money, it produces larger budget deficits. And the Treasury has to cover that deficit by issuing more bonds. The Federal Reserve buys the bonds. And it prints money to buy the bonds.
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In a speech summarized on the Riksbank website, Skingsley had some interesting things to say about the efficacy of NIRP, central banks playing follow the leader, and the use of helicopter money as being a viable path forward for central banks.
.........If it has become more difficult to conduct monetary policy, what can the Riksbank and other central banks do?
Skingsley says that it will not be possible, in the future, to conduct monetary policy in the way and with the impact we have previously been accustomed to. And this is something for which we need to prepare ourselves. She notes that, alongside cutting the policy rate to below zero and purchasing securities, so-called helicopter money could provide a hypothetical path to take to increase scope for monetary policy.
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the monetary elites are looking to engineer higher gold prices to generate inflation since nothing else has worked.
... Spain yesterday started a general election cycle (more below but relatively market friendly) of the largest 5 euro-area economies (Spain, Holland, France, Germany and Italy) over the next 18 months or so, not forgetting the US this November. Throw in the crucial senate reform vote in Italy in October and you've got plenty of opportunity for rebellion against the establishment that haven't managed to produce satisfactory enough growth for the lower paid/lower skilled to offset the forces of globalisation and immigration.
It's worth looking at the voting split in the UK's EU referendum based on polls compiled by Lord Ashcroft to get an idea of the disenfranchisement. In terms of socio-economic groups, 57% of ABs (upper/middle class - professional/managers etc) voted remain, 49% of C1s (lower middle class - supervisory/clerical or junior management/administrative), 36% of C2s (skilled working class) and 36% of DEs (Ds - semi & unskilled manual workers. Es - casual/lowest grade worker or state pensioner). So there's no escaping the fact that this is a class war. Whether its globalisation, immigration, inequality, poor economic growth or a combination of all of them it's quite clear from this and other anti-establishment movements that the status quo can't last in a democracy. Eventually you'll have a reaction.
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We've discussed many times that the global financial system and many of the economies within it are broken. Well such a shock could eventually speed up better policies to address this. As we've said many times before we'd love that policy to be more creative destruction with debt being destroyed but realistically the mess is too big to fix this way without depressionary economic conditions. We therefore need a growth plan to grow into the burden and despite the obvious issues and moral questions, helicopter money is worth a risk. Anything that gets fiscal money into the economy (paid for by money printing) will surely be biased to those disenfranchised by current policies. QE directs money into establishment institutions and only eventually the masses via trickle down (if much occurs). We think Brexit will eventually speed up 'helicopter money' ...
... In January 2010, the IMF issued another paper really speculating on the rise of the SDR as world money or a global currency. It was really a blueprint for the permanent establishment of the SDR. In other words, not a special, temporary SDR issue in case of emergency — but making the SDR a permanent global reserve currency.
But there’s a problem. In order to be a global reserve currency, the IMF can’t just print money to hand out. To create a reserve currency it needs to create an SDR-denominated bond market.
The reason the dollar is the world’s leading reserve currency is because there’s a very large liquid dollar-denominated bond market. Investors can go buy 30-day 10-year, 30-year Treasury notes, etc. The point is, there’s a deep, liquid dollar-denominated bond market to invest in that creates a lock-in effect. There is currently no equivalent bond market in SDRs. It will need to create one before SDRs can be considered a global reserve currency.
Well, last July, the IMF published a technical paper introducing the concept of a private SDR market…
In the IMF’s vision, private companies and corporations can issue bonds denominated in SDRs. Who are the logical issuers of the bonds?
Probably multinational or multilateral organizations like the Asian Development Bank and maybe big corporations like IBM and General Electric.
Who would buy these SDR-denominated bonds? Mostly sovereign wealth funds. China will be substantial buyers. The point is, these issues are coming.
Now the deployment of the SDR is coming closer to fruition…
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Yesterday I said September 4, 2016 could well go down as the day the dollar died. Why did I pick that date instead of September 30, the official date when the yuan is included in the IMF’s basket of currencies?
Because September 4 is when the leaders of the world’s larger economies will gather in Hangzhou, China for the G20 annual summit. This will be China’s coming-out party. This is China saying, “We are an equal partner, maybe more than the equal partner of the United States of America and Europe. They will no longer dictate the world’s financial system.”
The symbolism and the visuals at the upcoming meeting will be spectacular.
The IMF is essentially told what to do by the G20. If you think of the IMF as the central bank of the world, think of the G20 as the Board of Directors of the central bank of the world. It’s the committee that runs the world. This is not a conspiracy theory. It’s a fact.
And it’s important to realize that one G20 memo calls for “expanding the role of the IMF’s SDR (Special Drawing Rights).”
The pace is really picking up. The SDR bond issues I mentioned above are probably going to happen within the next couple of weeks. Between now and Labor Day we’ll see announcements about multibillion SDR bond issuance coming from the Asian Development Bank, some major Chinese commercial banks, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, etc.
The point is, so these issues are coming. And over time, the SDR market will grow. It will not compete with the dollar-denominated bond market anytime soon, but the groundwork is being laid. Every time an institution invests in SDRs, they’ll be indirectly supporting the yuan. And it’ll help move the world that much further away from the dollar. This will have vast implications for anyone who holds their wealth in dollars.
The mechanics are too far along, the piecemeal social engineering was too well thought out, the ratchet is locked in place. It won’t be reversed. The next time there is a financial crisis, which I expect sooner than later, it’s not going to be the Fed that bails us out. It’s going to the IMF and the SDRs.
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The mechanics are too far along, the piecemeal social engineering was too well thought out, the ratchet is locked in place. It won’t be reversed. The next time there is a financial crisis, which I expect sooner than later, it’s not going to be the Fed that bails us out. It’s going to the IMF and the SDRs.
The yuan took on the mantle of a global reserve currency Saturday, a milestone that is seen breathing life into China’s bond markets by prompting estimated inflows of as much as $1 trillion over the next five years.
The currency’s entry into the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights -- alongside the dollar, euro, pound and the yen -- comes amid China’s efforts to boost its international usage and ambitions of providing an alternative to the dollar. Describing the inclusion as a “historic milestone,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a statement Friday that it reflects the progress that the Asian country has made in reforming its financial systems and liberalizing markets.
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The yuan’s addition is the first change to the SDR basket since 1999, when the euro replaced the deutsche mark and the French franc. The new weightings will be 41.73 percent for the dollar, 30.93 percent for the euro, 10.92 percent for the yuan, 8.33 percent for the yen and 8.09 percent for the British pound. There were 204.1 billion SDRs allocated to IMF members as of March, equivalent to around $285 billion, compared with about $11 trillion of global reserves.
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Five leaders, meeting informally ahead of summit in Hangzhou, pursue equity for developing countries, emerging economies
Leaders of BRICS countries on Sunday urged the International Monetary Fund to reassign quota and voting rights to ensure that the IMF "fairly" reflects the "status of emerging markets and developing countries".
The leaders - representing Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, made the call during an informal meeting ahead of the G20 Summit. The five countries are also members of the G20.
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At the G-20 Leaders’ Summit in Hangzhou, China earlier this month, BRICS made a very interesting demand. They may be 22% of the global economy, but they only hold 14.89% of the votes at the IMF.
Any individual country or group of countries with 15% has veto power over certain major IMF decisions, including the issuance of SDRs. Only one country has over 15% today, and that’s the United States. The BRICS are now demanding that their IMF vote move closer to their share of the world economy and past the 15% threshold.
If that happens, then the IMF will not be able to flood the world with SDRs in a liquidity crisis unless the BRICS agree. No doubt the BRICS will agree, but only if other steps are taken at the same time to destroy the privileged position of the U.S. dollar in global payments and reserves. ...
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To those who didn’t know the IMF prohibits member countries from linking their currencies to the classic measure of monetary value, no need to feel abashed. One of the savviest envoys America ever sent to the IMF just told us that he himself was nonplussed to discover that fact.
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Ron Paul first asked the IMF gold question in 2008, in the form of an open letter to the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department. Why did they “acquiesce” in the IMF’s “misguided” policy of prohibiting its members from linking their currencies to gold?
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