http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/24/us-china-imf-idUSKBN0MK05220150324
Full speed ahead (apparently).
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Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has asked the head of the International Monetary Fund to include China's yuan currency in its special drawing rights (SDR) basket, state news agency Xinhua said.
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China's yuan at some point would be incorporated in the SDR currency basket, Lagarde said on Friday.
Her comments follow speculation that the IMF may decide to include the yuan in the SDR basket - currently made up of dollars, yen, pounds and euros - during a five-year review due to be conducted this year.
The first step in the review of the basket for the SDR, an international reserve asset, is an informal board meeting in May, followed by a formal review in the autumn. Any changes would come into effect in January 2016, but would require a 70 or 85 percent majority on the IMF council.
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Until March 31 countries can submit for membership of the Asian Investment Infrastructure Bank (AIIB), a financial institution proposed by China, which has the purpose of being a multilateral framework to finance infrastructure projects in the wide Eurasian region. In recent weeks many Western countries have submitted for membership, the US rejected application as it fears strong cooperation between Asia and Europe will weaken the US dollar hegemony. On April 15 the final list of the founding members will be disclosed.
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Western and non-region members are currently:
- Australia
- Austria
- Brazil
- Denmark
- France
- Germany
- Italy
- Luxembourg
- Netherlands
- New Zealand
- Spain
- Switzerland
- UK
- Finland
- Norway
- Israel
- Japan on hold
Asian (regional) members are now:
- Bangladesh
- Brunei
- Cambodia
- China
- Georgia
- Hong Kong
- India
- Indonesia
- Jordan
- Kazakhstan
- Kuwait
- Laos
- Malaysia
- Maldives
- Mongolia
- Myanmar
- Nepal
- Oman
- Pakistan
- Philippines
- Qatar
- Russia
- Saudi Arabia
- Singapore
- South Korea
- Sri Lanka
- Tajikistan
- Thailand
- Turkey
- Uzbekistan
- Vietnam
- Taiwan
- Kyrgyzstan
... this weekend, as Bloomberg reports, Lord Meghnad Desai, chairman of The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, stated that IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR) should contain some gold to help stabilize the currency.
As Bloomberg reports,...“A bit of gold” could help stabilize SDRs, Lord Meghnad Desai, chairman of Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, says at precious metals conference in Dubai.
“We could ask that gold be nominated as part of the SDR. That is one thing I think is quite likely to happen”
This will be easier if China increases its official gold holdings.
Jim Rickards said:On May 27, I had the privilege of spending time with Ben Bernanke, former chairman of the Federal Reserve System, in Seoul, South Korea. ...
Turning to the international monetary system, Bernanke was also candid and said, “The international monetary system is not coherent.” He explained that the current combination of floating exchange rates, fixed exchange rates and moving pegs means that trading partners have no confidence in their relative terms of trade and this acts as a drag on trade, foreign direct investment and capital expenditures.
He said, “Over time, it would be important for the countries of the world to talk more about how to avoid the mixture of fixed and floating exchange rates. We need new ‘rules of the game.’”
Of course, international monetary experts know that the phrase “rules of the game” is code for a reformation of the international monetary system, or what some call a global reset. Bernanke was explicit that this reset is needed to end the dysfunction of the current system.
Some aspects of a global reset have already been put in place. For the past several years, the IMF has been attempting to change its quota system to give China more votes at the IMF, more in line with China’s 10% share of global GDP. Right now China has less than 5% of the votes, which is low compared with some much smaller economies in Europe.
The U.S. Congress has refused to approve legislation needed to implement the changes at the IMF. Referring to the closed-door negotiations among the U.S., IMF and China that led to the proposed reset in the quotas, Bernanke said, “I participated in this.”
This was surprising to me because traditionally matters involving the IMF are handled by the Treasury Department rather than the Federal Reserve. Bernanke’s confirmation of his participation made it clear that the Fed, Treasury, IMF and China are working hand in glove on the early stages of the reset.
China has grown increasingly frustrated at the delays from Washington in changing the IMF quotas to give China a larger vote. The Chinese have begun building their own version of the IMF in the form of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and other institutions through the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Bernanke was dismissive of the AIIB and said, “I don’t think it’s going to be very important. It’s going to be a footnote.” I took this to mean that Bernanke expects the IMF voting reforms to move forward, in which case, China will be happy to play by the rules of the existing Bretton Woods institutions rather than try to start its own club independent of the IMF.
This interpretation is consistent with China’s large gold acquisitions in recent years. The U.S. has about 8,000 tons of gold, the eurozone has about 10,000 tons, and the IMF has about 3,000 tons. China would need at least 4,000 tons, probably more, to be a credible member of this elite group.
The AIIB is best seen as a kind of head fake, and Bernanke implicitly confirmed this. China’s real goal is to acquire gold, have the yuan included in the IMF’s special drawing rights basket and have its IMF votes increased. All of these resets are now well underway.
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On Friday, alongside China's announcement that it had bought over 600 tons of gold in "one month", the PBOC released another very important data point: its total foreign exchange reserves, which declined by $17.3 billion to $3,694 billion.
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Summarizing the above as simply as possible: for all those confounded by why not only the US, but the global economy, hit another brick wall in Q1 the answer was neither snow, nor the West Coast strike, nor some other, arbitrary, goal-seeked excuse, but China, and specifically over half a trillion in still largely unexplained Chinese capital outflows.
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...markets-realize-china-forced-seller-treasurys...
The Great Reset , which began with China’s first reported foreign reserve decline in 2012, is now accelerating. The ultimate destination for China is either to continue to support the exchange rate and accept ever lower growth, probably accompanied by deflation, or to devalue. Either option will further exacerbate global deflationary pressures and place huge pressure on other EMs that compete with China and are linked to the USD.
So could the liquidation of US Treasuries by EMs, in an effort to defend their exchange rates, also push up Treasury yields? This was the forecast in the May 2011 paper and it was very wrong. It was wrong because the Fed was an aggressive buyer of Treasuries, but the Fed is not currently in the marketplace.
Today the yield on Treasuries is set by the actions of foreign central bank activity and the global private sector. The Solid Ground has long wondered how US Treasury bulls in the private sector would react if they knew in advance that the second largest owner of Treasuries, the PBOC, was a forced seller of Treasuries. Such compelled selling would be obvious before US markets opened each morning as downward pressure on the RMB exchange rate in Asia forced the PBOC to liquidate foreign currency assets to defend the fixed exchange rate. Would even Treasury bulls stand in the way of such a large and predictable liquidation? If they didn’t then the second phase of The Great Reset would come to pass and the decline of EM external deficits would force tighter monetary policy in both EM and DM.
PBOC liquidation of Treasuries to support the RMB exchange rate would not be prolonged. Both the US and China would recognize the dreadful dynamics inherent in such a policy if it did indeed push Treasury yields higher. Very soon China would be given the permission to devalue its exchange rate and the nature of the pain to be endured by the global system would be of a somewhat lesser and somewhat different nature. It would, however, still be a deflationary adjustment.
One day we will tell those much younger than ourselves that once upon a time there was a large economy that ran a surplus on both its current account and on its capital account for more than twenty consecutive years. We will tell them, when they’re sitting comfortably, that because it went on for twenty years everyone assumed it would go on forever, despite the fact that such a thing had never ever been seen before. Then one day it ended. And the world thought that this would pass or, if it didn’t pass, they thought that it was not of great import.
Only years later did the world realise that the end of unsustainable double surpluses in China triggered what became known as The Great Reset. It all began with the sudden realisation that developed-world central bankers had no magic wand with which to reflate the world if China was forced to deflate or devalue. The first sign that the monetary love of developed world central bankers would ultimately be in vain was the collapse of commodity prices in 2015. What came next did not involve the words ‘happily’ ‘ ever’ and ‘after’.
The International Monetary Fund should put off any move to add the yuan to its Special Drawing Rights currency basket until September 2016, an IMF staff report said, a move that would effectively end the Chinese currency's chances of an early inclusion.
The report, published on Tuesday, comes after Beijing launched a major diplomatic push for the yuan's inclusion in the IMF basket as part of its long-term strategic goal of reducing dependence on the dollar.
The report said the implementation of any formal decision to add the yuan to a basket of currencies comprising dollars, euros, pounds and yen should be delayed so as not to disrupt financial market trading on the first day of 2016.
"The proposed extension, which will be decided by the Executive Board later this month, would not in any way prejudge the timing of conclusion or outcome of the review," said Siddharth Tiwari, director of the IMF's strategy, policy and review department.
It said that the yuan, also known as the renminbi, met the requirements as a significant currency in terms of international trade. The board would judge if the yuan meets criteria that it should be "freely usable."
"If the RMB (renminbi) were determined to be a freely usable currency, it would play a more central role in the Fund's financial operations going forward, and it would qualify for inclusion in the SDR basket," the report said.
European members of the Group of Seven major industrialized economies - Germany, Britain, France and Italy - favor adding the yuan to the basket this year. Japan, like the United States, is more cautious, officials have said.
...
The report said the implementation of any formal decision to add the yuan to a basket of currencies comprising dollars, euros, pounds and yen should be delayed so as not to disrupt financial market trading on the first day of 2016.
China's shock 2 percent devaluation of the yuan on Tuesday pushed the dollar higher and raised the prospect of a new round of currency wars, just as Greece reached a new deal to contain its debt crisis.
Stocks fell in Asia and Europe as investors worried about the implications of a move designed to support China's slowing economy and exports.
The stronger dollar hit commodity prices, driving crude oil down after Monday's hefty gains, though gold hit three-week highs as investors focused on the risks to the global economy.
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China's move, which the central bank described as a "one-off depreciation" based on a new way of managing the exchange rate that better reflected market forces, triggered the yuan's biggest fall since 1994, pushing it to its weakest against the dollar CNY=CFXS in almost three years.
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U.S. reaction will be crucial. Washington has for years pressed Beijing to free up the exchange rate to allow the yuan to strengthen, reflecting the growth in the world's second-largest economy.
Today, China's economy is slowing and the new exchange rate mechanism gives markets greater ability to push the yuan lower, just as the United States prepares to raise interest rates - a step that should add to dollar strength.
"It does look, however modest, like an attempt to recoup just a small amount of competitive edge lost in international markets," said Simon Derrick, head of currency research at BNY Mellon in London.
"What happens over the next few days matters. If we have a currency that moves much more freely, fine. If, however, we go back and it's just repegged ... that is currency war."
...
... The PBOC weakened its Yuan FIX dramatically for the 2nd consecutive day (from 6.1162 Monday to 6.2298 last night to 6.3306). ...
...... Xinhua said: "China is not waging a currency war; merely fixing a discrepancy." ...
As mentioned earlier this devaluation is likely not a one-time event but rather the beginning of an ongoing and persistent depreciation of the CNY versus the USD. The embedded USD short position within the carry trades will begin to result in losses and margin calls as the USD appreciates versus the CNY, thus forcing investors to liquidate some of their positions. These trades, which took years to amass, could unwind abruptly and exert an influence of historic magnitude on markets and economies.
China's move to devalue its currency reflects a growing clamour within government circles for a weaker yuan to help struggling exporters, ensuring the central bank remains under pressure to drag it down further in the months ahead, sources said.
The yuan has fallen almost 4 percent in two days since the central bank announced the devaluation on Tuesday, but sources involved in the policy-making process said powerful voices inside the government were pushing for it to go still lower.
Their comments, which offer a rare insight into the argument going on behind the scenes in Beijing, suggest there is pressure for an overall devaluation of almost 10 percent.
"There have been internal calls for the exchange rate to be more flexible, or depreciated appropriately, to help stabilise external demand and growth," said a senior economist at a government think-tank that advises policy-makers in Beijing.
"I think yuan deprecation within 10 percent will be manageable. There should be enough depreciation, otherwise it won't be able to stimulate exports."
The Commerce Ministry, which on Wednesday publicly welcomed the devaluation as an export stimulus, had led the push for Beijing to abandon its previous strong-yuan policy.
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As the saying goes, “Timing is everything.” China has been laboring under a strong currency all year, and their growth has slowed perceptibly.
But China has another goal, which is to have the yuan included in the IMF’s world money called the Special Drawing Right (SDR).
The decision on the SDR was expected in November 2015.
The U.S. expected China to maintain the yuan peg to the dollar as part of the price of admission into the SDR “club.”
China was playing along.
But last week, the IMF extended the deadline for a decision on the SDR components to September 30, 2016.
China knew that if they kept the peg until then, their economy would be even more underwater. The Chinese stock market was already crashing and the cost of a strong currency was too much to bear. So, China took advantage of the breathing room they got from the IMF and devalued just one week after the IMF announcement.
China can go back to good behavior next year. For now, they’re going for bad behavior (good for them, bad for us) in the currency wars.
Does the IMF Care About What China Did?
The IMF is OK with what China did.
They don’t care about the cross rate as much as they care about open capital accounts and market mechanisms.
Technically what China did is a step in the direction of letting markets determine the exchange rate rather than the PBOC.
The fact that the market took the yuan down is highly convenient for China, but both China and the IMF are acting under cover of “market forces” instead of manipulation.
In any case, the process of including the yuan in the SDR is still on track. It will be done before President Xi of China hosts the G20 meeting in China next year. Xi is the President of the G20 in 2016, in addition to being President of China. So, 2016 will be the “Year of Big Xi” and the Year of China. The IMF is fine with this.
What About the Federal Reserve?
Janet Yellen and the Fed are the biggest losers in all of this.
There was very little chance that the Fed would raise interest rates in September even before China devalued.
That’s because job creation stalled out last November.
The U.S. economy is headed for the worst growth since 2012. You can’t find inflation under a microscope. And so now Yellen’s forecast of 5% unemployment, 2.5% growth and 2% inflation is in shreds.
It looks like we’ll see 5.3% unemployment, 1.5% growth, and 1% inflation at best.
Things could actually be worse than that.
The Chinese devaluation just makes the dollar stronger, which is deflationary (because our imports cost less). Raising interest rates makes the dollar even stronger, adding insult to injury on the deflation front. That’s why Yellen can’t raise rates.
That’s the overview.
U.S. markets are repricing now for added deflation, lower U.S. growth, and weaker corporate earnings (hurt by the strong dollar).
What Happens Next?
If Yellen does not raise rates in September, stocks may catch a bid and go up, but it will be a temporary reprieve because the currency wars will continue as they have since 2010.
If Yellen does raise rates, fasten your seat belt and look out below. Markets will have no bottom and we’ll be in for a 1998-style crash beginning in emerging markets.
The most important date of the year will be the September 17 Fed meeting.
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John Kerry said:“That is a recipe very quickly, my friends, business people here, for the American dollar to cease to be the reserve currency of the world – which is already bubbling out there.”
What is remarkable about the video and the quote is that the US Secretary of State is openly talking about "the American dollar to cease(ing) to be the reserve currency of the world – which is already bubbling out there."
I can remember when I first started talking about this subject in other forums (before I launched pmbug.com) and got the usual "lol, you are the village idiot" type of feedback. That was years ago. Some people just can't think past next week I guess.
... China has sold as much in Treasurys in the past 2 weeks, over $100 billion, as it has sold in the entire first half of the year!
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Should the current pace of liquidity outflows continue, and require the dumping of $100 billion in FX reserves, read US Treasurys, every two weeks this means China has, oh, call it some 18 weeks of intervention left.
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... if China were to liquidate $1 trillion in reserves (i.e. USTs), it would effectively offset 60% of QE3.
Furthermore, based on Citi's review of the academic literature which shows that for every $500 billion in EM reserves liquidated, the yield on the US 10Y rises 108bps, if the PBoC were to use its reserves to offset a hypothetical unwind of the entire RMB carry trade, it would put around 200 bps of upward pressure on 10Y yields.
So in effect, China's UST dumping is QE in reverse - and on a massive scale. ...
The $100 billion BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) has become fully operational following the inaugural meetings of the BRICS CRA Board of Governors and the Standing Committee in the Turkish capital of Ankara.
“The first meetings of the governing bodies mark the start of a full-scale operation of the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement as an international institution with activities set to enhance and strengthen cooperation,” said a Russian Central Bank statement on Friday.
BRICS leaders Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Jacob Zuma, Narendra Modi and Dilma Rousseff witnessed the signing of the agreement on the CRA in the Brazilian city of Fortaleza in July 2014.
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The CRA is meant to provide an alternative to International Monetary Fund’s emergency lending. In the CRA, emergency loans of up to 30 per cent of a member nation’s contribution will be decided by a simple majority. Bigger loans will require the consent of all CRA members.
Meanwhile, Finance Ministers from the five BRICS countries have met in Ankara on the sidelines of the G20 meeting of global finance ministers and central bankers, amid growing worries about the state of the global economy.
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China is planning to launch its own oil benchmark in October, similar to Brent and WTI, striving for a more important role in establishing crude prices. Unlike the Western benchmarks, the Chinese contracts will be nominated in the yuan, not the US dollar.
Shanghai International Energy Exchange sent a draft futures contract to market players in August, Reuters reported quoting sources.
Oil futures will be the first Chinese contract to permit direct participation of foreign investors. However, this is not the first step for greater oil market openness in China. In July, Beijing allowed private companies to import crude. Previously importing was only done by state-run majors such as Sinopec, China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, the Xinhua news agency reported.
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So eerrrr
Should I fill my tank and restock the bunker ? :wave:
or just buy a tonne or two of goldffftt: ffftt:
... China is moving ever closer to establishing the RMB as a reserve currency. Here's WSJ:...In August, for the first time, the yuan moved ahead of Japan’s yen for fourth place in a league table of the most-used currencies for cross-border payments compiled by Swift, the international payments provider.
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Rickards expanded a bit on his comments in the video in this column he wrote:
IMF Fears $3 Trillion Credit Crunch; Lagarde Says "IMF Credibility at Stake", Calls for US to Give China More Voting Power
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Revisiting the quoted post (#337)...
Rickards sounds confident that the Sept 30, 2016 date for the IMF's SDR decision (to include China) is going to stick:
The China International Payment System (CIPS) officially began its operations on Thursday, a statement posted on the country’s State Council website has said.
Fan Yifei, deputy governor of the central bank, the People's Bank of China, told a ceremony in Shanghai that the establishment of CIPS "will allow increasing efficiency of cross-border settlement in yuans and encourage the yuan’s use globally."
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CIPS, seen as China’s alternative to the SWIFT payment system, is expected to enable foreign market participants to carry out settlements in yuans directly with Chinese partners. The Chinese government hopes CIPS will increase the international recognition of the China’s national currency.
China is set to issue government debt in renminbi in London, picking the city as the first overseas financial centre in which to open a sovereign debt market as it ramps up efforts to popularise its currency, officials familiar with the issue said.
The plan is to issue Chinese Treasury bonds in renminbi in London after laying the foundations with launches of short-term debt by the People's Bank of China, the central bank, the officials said.
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