US Consumer Debt growing

CiscoKid said:

I keep a credit card for emergencies and always keep it paid off. Most months, I don't even get a bill in the mail because there is no balance.

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Credit card delinquencies surged more than 50% in 2023 as total consumer debt swelled to $17.5 trillion, the New York Federal Reserve reported Tuesday.

Debt that has transitioned into "serious delinquency," or 90 days or more past due, increased across multiple categories during the year, but none more so than credit cards.

With a total of $1.13 trillion in debt, credit card debt that moved into serious delinquency amounted to 6.4% in the fourth quarter, a 59% jump from just over 4% at the end of 2022, the New York Fed reported. The quarterly increase at an annualized pace was around 8.5%, New York Fed researchers said.

Delinquencies also rose in mortgages, auto loans and the "other" category. Student loan delinquencies moved lower as did home equity lines of credit. Overall, 1.42% of debt was 90 days or more past due, up from just over 1% at the end of 2022.
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While the rise in delinquencies happening from low levels, the trend "bears watching because it is happening while the economy is still growing," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

"What happens if the economy slows and unemployment quickly rises? Delinquencies could surge, in turn leading to a self-reinforcing credit crunch," LaVorgna said in a note. "In other words, a mild downturn could turn into a deep one."
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"Garbage Deals": Dealership Puts Customers In Cars With $3,000 Monthly Payments​

Capital One Financial Corp. is exploring a potential acquisition of credit-card lender Discover Financial Services in a major move that would rank as its largest-ever deal, people with knowledge of the matter said.

McLean, Virginia-based Capital One is working with advisers and has been holding talks with Discover about a deal, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. If it's able to reach an agreement, an announcement may come as soon as this week, according to the people.
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The CFPB on Friday released a survey of 84 banks and 72 credit unions that found large credit card issuers offered the highest interest rates across all credit scores. ...
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The median interest rate charged by large credit card companies was 28.2% compared with 18.15% charged by small issuers, to consumers with good credit — typically credit scores between 620 and 719, the CFPB said.
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Capital One's $35 billion Discover deal hinges on playing consumer champion​

... More than one-third of U.S. households (36%) say they are carrying more credit-card debt month to month than they have in emergency savings funds, according to a new survey by Bankrate. That’s the highest percentage since polling began in 2011.

That was more likely to be the case for Gen X and millennial consumers, the survey found. Meanwhile, baby boomers were more likely to say their emergency savings exceeds their credit-card debt.

“The 60% of U.S. households living paycheck to paycheck are really feeling it, and necessities rather than discretionary items are increasingly being put on credit cards,” Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate, told MarketWatch. Because credit-card interest rates have climbed to 20% or higher, the fact that more consumers are using them to finance purchases “is a clear sign of financial strain,” he added.
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“Credit-card balances are rising and so are delinquencies. This indicates elevated financial stress on consumers,” said Amy Crews Cutts, senior economist for financial services company Primerica PRI, +0.35%. Like McBride, she also blames “the high cost of just getting by” rather than overspending.

Just 3% of middle-income households (incomes between $30,000 and $130,000) surveyed by Primerica said their incomes have gone up faster than the cost of living, despite slowing inflation and rising incomes. The firm estimates that over the two and a half years from May 2021 to October 2023, middle-income households on average spent $2,445 more than the rise in incomes on necessity items alone (food, gas, utilities and healthcare, excluding insurance).
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By some measures, credit cards have never been this expensive. For cardholders who carry a balance without paying it off in full each month, issuers generally charge interest based on annual percentage rates (APRs). In 2022 alone, major credit card companies charged over $105 billion in interest, the primary cost of credit cards to consumers. While the effects of increases to the target federal funds rate have received considerable attention, the average APR margin (the difference between the average APR and the prime rate) has reached an all-time high.

In this analysis, we show that higher APR margin drove about half of the increase in credit card rates over the last decade. In 2023, excess APR margin may have cost the average cardholder over $250. Major credit card companies earned an estimated $25 billion in additional interest revenue by raising APR margin. Increases to the average APR margin - despite lower charge-off rates and a relatively stable share of subprime borrowers - have fueled issuers’ profitability for the past decade. Higher APR margins have allowed credit card companies to generate returns that are significantly higher than other bank activities.

Credit card average APR margin is the highest on record.

Over the last 10 years, average APR on credit cards assessed interest have almost doubled from 12.9 percent in late 2013 to 22.8 percent in 2023 — the highest level recorded since the Federal Reserve began collecting this data in 1994. The APR on most credit card accounts can be viewed as being composed of the prime rate and the APR margin. The prime rate (a benchmark most banks use to set rates) represents a good proxy for banks’ funding costs, which have increased in recent years. But credit card issuers have also sharply increased average APRs beyond changes in the prime rate.

Nearly half of the increase in average APR over the last 10 years has been driven by issuers raising their APR margin. APR margin for revolving accounts is now at 14.3 percent, the highest point in recent history. ...

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The increase in noncurrent loan balances was greatest among CRE loans and credit cards. Weak demand for office space is softening property values, and higher interest rates are affecting the credit quality and refinancing ability of office and other types of CRE loans. As a result, the noncurrent rate for non-owner occupied CRE loans is now at its highest level since first quarter 2014, driven by portfolios at the largest banks. Similarly, the noncurrent rate for credit card loans is at its highest level since third quarter 2011.

Driven by writedowns on credit cards and CRE loans, the industry's quarterly net charge-off rate increased 14 basis points to 0.65 percent, a rate that is 17 basis points higher than the pre-pandemic average rate.
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pmbug said:

Debt up, rates up, fucked up:

Credit Card Debt Surges To New All-Time High, Just As Card APR Rates Hit Fresh Record | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

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Casey Jones said:

I owe nobody nuffin.

It's interesting: We hear stories like the above, and most of the high-level debt slaves pooh-pooh it off. Yah, yah, my interest is only $XX.xx a month, yada yada.

But...four years ago I foolishly took a bath (I shouldn't say "invested") in an RV rig. I tried to use logic - a pickup truck (market-desirable) and a trailer (tried to pick one that holds its value better). I bought, and rather than cash in PMs, I borrowed. They make it easy. Oh, lordy, they make it easy. The payment was well within my means; but I'd have had it until long after I die. Over ten years, at 4 percent (then).

Well, the story's been told. Vaxxident, far from home - head-on, other driver dead. Maybe dead before impact. All equipment involved, totaled out. Amazingly, all I got out of it was whiplash - and the incredible hassle of getting home with a lot of expensive camping-trip gear. I made it.

Insurance paid it off, after a little more hassle than I expected. All's well that ends well - for me, at least.

But, now. My monthly costs are rent and electric. And, even though I'm below the poverty line in income...I have PLENTY more money coming in than I'm spending. Just a week ago, getting nervous about my high bank balance (over $6k) I went and bought more krugerrands.

The little savings add up, fer sure. And the peace of mind of not having to worry about unseen expenses, is a joy beyond price.

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Casey Jones said:

People have stopped caring.

Planning ahead, in this era of deliberate chaos...planning is for fools. Look at what happened to people who saved for a big purchase, or for retirement.

My ex's father used to buy his cars with cash. This was back in the Reagan years of prosperity, and he was a professional, a chemical engineer. He had a family, and his cars were all (three of them) newish. He always bought new; didn't believe in buying someone else's problems; but he paid up front.

Imagine such a person now. I'm not saving for a car now because what I have should last me all my life, and if it doesn't, most of us will be walking in a decade, anyway. I've done all the savings I'm going to.

But a young person, thrilled to be making $16 at the car wash, will find that the $28k car he had hoped to buy, when he started, is now $48k. The $140k home he hoped to someday afford, is now $800k.

Who can save? What are banks paying, now? Two percent?

Just party hardy. Various intoxicants are legal, now, and some are encouraged; so smoke it, enjoy it, charge your Bug Muc on your CC account, have it delivered by DoorDash, and don't think about tomorrow.

Tomorrow everything collapses. May as well put your debt into that inferno pile.

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Credit Card Performance Worsened to Historical Levels

Credit card performance further deteriorated at the end of 2023, with firms recording the worst 30+, 60+, and 90+ account-based days past due levels in the reporting series. Notably, card performance usually declines in the fourth quarter. Stress among cardholders was further underscored in payment behavior, as the share of accounts making minimum payments rose 34 basis points to a series high from last quarter’s reading. The share of accounts making full balance payments did tick up 8 basis points in the fourth quarter, but the 3.1 percent increase in revolving balances implies higher card balances among a smaller group of revolvers. Median origination credit scores jumped 2 points, supporting data from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey that suggest that credit card lending standards at most large banks tightened somewhat or remained unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, current credit scores at the 10th and 25th percentiles of cardholders decreased to their lowest levels since the first quarter of 2020, indicating further performance deterioration could be on the horizon.
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The numbers signal added pressure on US household finances amid higher costs of living. About 10% of credit-card borrowers now have an account balance that exceeds $5,200, according to the Philadelphia Fed. One-quarter of active accounts have a balance of over $2,000 for the first time.
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The Philadelphia Fed found that credit scores at the 10th and 25th percentiles of cardholders decreased to their lowest levels since the first quarter of 2020, indicating further performance deterioration could be on the horizon.
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Focus: Buy now, pay later lender Affirm pushes into elective medical procedures​

29% of households have jobs but struggle to cover basic needs: They are ‘one emergency from poverty,’ one expert says​

• The number of households that live above the poverty line but are barely scrapping by is ticking higher.
• Currently, nearly 40 million families are defined as ALICE, which stands for Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed.
• High inflation and higher interest rates have taken a hefty toll, and there is little relief in sight.

...Consumer credit increased by $6.27 billion in March, following a revised $14.12 billion increase in February, the Federal Reserve announced Tuesday. The number was much lower than expectations, as the consensus of economists was for a $15 billion increase.

Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, rose $152 million in March, the smallest rise since credit card debt declined in 2021. Non-revolving credit, including school and vehicle loans, rose by $6.1 billion.
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The lower-than-expected consumer debt report is very good news for markets, as many economists have worried that U.S. consumers were approaching the breaking point as they struggled under the combination of higher prices and higher interest rates.
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searcher said:

‘Phantom debt’ from ‘buy now, pay later’ schemes is a $700 billion black hole that economists aren’t accounting for

Experts have been “lulled into complacency about where consumers are" as a result, a Wells Fargo analyst added.

finance.yahoo.com

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...Consumer credit increased by $6.27 billion in March, ...

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May 14, 2024

NEW YORK — The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $184 billion (1.1%) in the first quarter of 2024, to $17.69 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel.

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining credit card utilization and its relationship with delinquency. The Quarterly Report also includes a one-page summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points.

“In the first quarter of 2024, credit card and auto loan transition rates into serious delinquency continued to rise across all age groups,” said Joelle Scally, Regional Economic Principal within the Household and Public Policy Research Division at the New York Fed. “An increasing number of borrowers missed credit card payments, revealing worsening financial distress among some households.”

Mortgage balances rose by $190 billion from the previous quarter and was $12.44 trillion at the end of March. Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) increased by $16 billion, representing the eighth consecutive quarterly increase since Q1 2022, and now stand at $376 billion. Credit card balances decreased by $14 billion to $1.12 trillion. Other balances, which include retail cards and consumer loans, also decreased by $11 billion. Auto loan balances increased by $9 billion, continuing the upward trajectory seen since 2020, and now stand at $1.62 trillion.

Mortgage originations continued increasing at the same pace seen in the previous three quarters, and now stand at $403 billion. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased modestly by $63 billion, representing a 1.3% increase from the previous quarter. Limits on HELOC grew by $30 billion and have grown by 14% over the past two years, after 10 years of observed declines.

Aggregate delinquency rates increased in Q1 2024, with 3.2% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency at the end of March. Delinquency transition rates increased for all debt types. Annualized, approximately 8.9% of credit card balances and 7.9% of auto loans transitioned into delinquency. Delinquency transition rates for mortgages increased by 0.3 percentage points yet remain low by historic standards.
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How Spaving Is Hurting Americans​

Why Car Payments Are So High Right Now​