Venezuela troubles (currency, economy and potential FAFO)

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Mr. Maduro, who assumed the presidency after the death of his mentor, Hugo Chávez, in 2013, has overseen a drastic unraveling of the economy in Venezuela — once one of the region’s most prosperous countries — largely as a result of mismanagement and corruption.

But he has centralized power in the executive branch, tamping down on dissent through violence and intimidation, and winning the loyalty of the military by giving it control of lucrative industries.

In 2017, as protests mounted, Mr. Maduro sidelined the opposition-controlled legislature, the National Assembly, by ordering the creation of a new legislative body, known as the Constituent Assembly, which was asked to rewrite the Constitution. He jailed prominent members of the opposition, leaving it largely ineffective for many months.

In May 2018, Mr. Maduro won re-election to a new six-year term in the midst of a financial and humanitarian crisis. Coercion and vote rigging were widely reported. By the time of his inauguration on Jan. 10, many countries did not recognize his new term as legitimate, including the United States, Canada and a dozen Latin American nations.
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President Trump issued a statement, minutes after Mr. Guaidó declared himself interim president, recognizing him as the country’s leader and calling the National Assembly the “only legitimate branch of government duly elected by the Venezuelan people.” The United States has not ruled out the use of military force.

Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Denmark, Paraguay, Peru and the Organization of American States have also recognized Mr. Guaidó as the country’s leader.

Mr. Maduro moved quickly on Wednesday to cut diplomatic ties with the United States and order American diplomats to leave the country. He accused the Trump administration of orchestrating a plot to overthrow him.

Other nations have stood by Mr. Maduro. Russia reiterated its support for his government on Wednesday, as did Bolivia.
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The U.K. government said it is up to the Bank of England to decide what to do with the “significant amount” of gold it is holding under contract for the embattled Venezuelan regime of Nicolas Maduro.

“This is a decision for the Bank of England, not for government,” Foreign Office Minister Alan Duncan told Parliament Monday during an urgent question on Venezuela. ...
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The U.K. followed the U.S. and other countries last week in recognizing Guaido as the legitimate president of Venezuela. When asked if the government would consider further sanctions against Venezuelan individuals including the military, Duncan answered it would consult with international partners “on how to approach the issue.”

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A group of major European nations recognized Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as the country's interim president on Monday, urging him to hold free and fair elections.

The coordinated move came after President Nicolas Maduro ignored a demand set by some EU nations last week to call snap elections by the end of Sunday. Spain, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands all said they would recognize Guadio as the legitimate Venezuelan leader.
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PMBug said:

So you might remember back in October of 2017, Venezuela let a gold swap with Deutsche Bank lapse (as mentioned here). Apparently, they continued to load gold to DB and recently actually paid off one of those loans ...

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Venezuela has defaulted on a gold swap agreement valued at $750 million with Deutsche Bank AG, prompting the lender to take control of the precious metal used as collateral and close out the contract, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter.

As part of a financing agreement signed in 2016, Venezuela received a cash loan from Deutsche Bank and put up 20 tons of gold as collateral. The agreement, which was set to expire in 2021, was settled early due to missed interest payments, said the people, who asked not to be named speaking about a private matter.

In the meantime, opposition leader Juan Guaido’s parallel government has asked the bank to deposit $120 million into an account outside President Nicolas Maduro’s reach, which represents the difference in price from when the gold was acquired to current levels. ...

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The UN has accused Venezuela of a strategy of instilling fear in its population to retain power, removing opponents with a "shocking" number of alleged extrajudicial killings.

Victims are arrested and shot, with crime scenes manipulated to suggest they resisted police, a report says.
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Some four million people have fled Venezuela since 2015, according to the UN ...
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The report is scheduled to be presented to the UN Human Rights Council on Friday.

It is based on "558 interviews with victims and witnesses of human rights violations and the deteriorating economic situation" from January 2018 to May 2019.

Its most damning findings relate to the number of deaths the Venezuelan government has ascribed to resisting arrest.

That figure for last year was 5,287, with another 1,569 up to 19 May this year.
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On accusations of torture it says detainees have been subjected to "one or more forms of torture or cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment, including electric shocks, suffocation with plastic bags, water boarding, beatings, sexual violence, water and food deprivation, stress positions and exposure to extreme temperatures".
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U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a freeze on all Venezuelan government assets in the United States on Monday, sharply escalating an economic and diplomatic pressure campaign aimed at removing socialist President Nicolas Maduro from power.
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Trump said in a letter to Congress the freezing of assets was necessary “in light of the continued usurpation of power by the illegitimate Nicolas Maduro regime, as well as the regime’s human rights abuses, arbitrary arrest and detention of Venezuelan citizens, curtailment of free press, and ongoing attempts to undermine Interim President Juan Guaido.”

His executive order also threatened sanctions against anyone assisting Maduro or his loyalists, suggesting that Washington could resort to so-called secondary sanctions against third-country companies and individuals.
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Monday’s decision, however, granted the Maduro-backed BCV appeal, sending the case back to the High Court to determine a “more definitive answer” to whether:

(1) [the UK] recognizes Mr. Guaidó as President of Venezuela for all purposes and therefore does not recognize Mr. Maduro as President for any purpose; or

(2) [the UK] recognizes Mr. Guaidó as entitled to be the President of Venezuela and thus entitled to exercise all the powers of the President but also recognizes Mr. Maduro as the person who does in fact exercise some to all of the powers of the President of Venezuela.
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Venezuela’s government has produced letters apparently signed by Queen Elizabeth II to bolster its claim to more than $1 billion of gold stored in the Bank of England.

The diplomatic correspondence is evidence that the UK recognized Nicolas Maduro as Venezuela’s president, said Calixto Ortega, the head of Venezuela’s central bank.
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ancona said:

This is the end for Venezuela. Expect a revolution before too long. Once all those poor people who voted for Maduro are starving and wiping their asses with leaves they will realize that they've finally run out of other peoples money. Their oil industry is in complete collapse and there is no telling how much of the production is being skimmed off by insider cronies. Before Chavez, the country was one of the better off nations of SA, now, they're reverting to banana republic.

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Juan Guaidó, another failed regime change reaches its conclusion​

• Sealeo, laden with 500,000 barrels of Hamaca crude, is expected to arrive in Pascagoula next week
• Kerala, carrying 250,000 barrels of Boscan oil, also is scheduled to arrive in Pascagoula next week
• UACC Eagle discharged about 600,000 barrels of US heavy naphtha in Venezuela last week
• ICE Fighter arrived in Lake Maracaibo where the Bajo Grande terminal is located
• Carina Voyager arrived in Venezuela to load 500,000 barrels of Hamaca oil, bound for Phillips 66 refinery

Joe King said:

Since when does Trinidad or Tobago need a US license to do anything?

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searcher said:

Under U.S. sanctions, companies and governments must obtain authorization from the U.S. Treasury Department to do business with PDVSA

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Joe King said:

If so-called "independant nations" need a license from us, then they obviously are not independent nations.

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pmbug said:

That's the power of SWIFT and the world reserve currency (clearing international trade through New York banks).

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