Venezuela troubles (currency, economy and potential FAFO)

The leaders of Guyana and Venezuela promised in a tense meeting that neither side would use threats or force against the other, but failed to reach agreement on how to address a bitter dispute over a vast border region rich with oil and minerals that has concerned many in the region.

Instead, a joint commission composed of the foreign ministers of both countries and other officials will address the problem, with a report expected within three months.

Guyanese President Irfaan Ali and Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro agreed to meet again in Brazil within three months or at another agreed-upon time, according to an 11-point declaration read at a press briefing late Thursday at which no questions were allowed.
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The U.S. government injected confusion into next year’s presidential election in Venezuela on Friday by incorrectly suggesting opposition leader Maria Corina Machado had filed an appeal to reverse her ban on running for office.

Machado subsequently sidestepped questions about whether she had been pressured by the Biden administration to appear before Venezuela’s highest court, but she made a veiled criticism of the U.S. comment, saying she wished she had been able to announce her actions herself.

A tweet from the U.S. government’s unit that oversees Venezuelan affairs praised Machado’s “courage and willingness” to appeal the ban. But as she left the country’s highest court Friday evening, she told reporters she did not file an appeal because she has not been officially notified of the ban announced against her in June.

“I am not going to resort to that procedure,” she said of the appeal process.

Instead, Machado, a longtime foe of the ruling party and winner of an opposition presidential primary, said she had established before the court a claim “that there is no disqualification” against her.

With her campaign’s attorney by her side, Machado said her legitimacy as a candidate comes from Venezuelan voters, not the government.
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Venezuela agrees to extradite Fat Leonard, key figure in massive military bribery scandal​

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U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Western Hemisphere Daniel P. Erikson is visiting Guyana on Monday and Tuesday in what the U.S. Embassy in Guyana referred to as a push for a “bilateral defense and security partnership in support of regional stability”. Erikson will be meeting with the Guyanese government and military leaders, as well as with the regional bloc, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM).

In December, Guyana and Venezuela vowed to avoid the use of force in the dispute, which escalated earlier last month after Maduro held a referendum to annex Essequibo, then vowing to force the exit of foreign oil producers who refused to comply.

The Venezuelan parliament has yet to pass a law establishing Venezuela’s jurisdiction over the Essequibo region, which represents two-thirds of the territory of Guyana and is where its oil riches are concentrated.

Maduro is facing elections this year, and there has been significant speculation that the subject of the rightful ownership of Essequibo–a popular topic among Venezuelans–is being used to create a state-of-emergency situation that could justify the postponing of the elections.
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Venezuela is ending its Petro cryptocurrency on Monday, more than five years after it was first launched, according to multiple reports citing a message displayed on the Patria Platform, the only website where the Petro was tradeable.
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Any remaining petros are being converted to bolivars, the ailing local currency, according to one report. The final nail in the coffin for the Petro was a corruption scandal over financial irregularities around using crypto assets for oil operations which led to the resignation of the petroleum minister Tareck El Aissami and a crackdown on bitcoin mining operations, AFP reported.
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Inflation reached just under 190% last year, according to the central bank, marking an easing from 234% the year before. ...

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A U.S. court on Friday approved claims by 14 Venezuela creditors, including ConocoPhillips, Rusoro Mining and Koch Industries, to get proceeds from an auction of shares in the parent of Venezuela-owned oil refiner Citgo Petroleum, to satisfy claims for expropriations and debt defaults.

The list, which reduced the scope of the claims to $20.8 billion from the $24 billion sought by creditors, comes after a court officer excluded arbitration awards and court rulings that had failed to satisfy the court's requirements.

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Javier Milei’s arrival to the presidency has caused a stir in geopolitical relations, particularly in relation to the Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela. Just over a month after taking office, the two leaders engaged in a public confrontation. Maduro criticized Milei’s economic policies, especially his plan to drastically reduce the size of the State. He described Milei as a “fatal mistake” in the history of Argentina and Latin America during his annual message before the National Assembly in Caracas.

Milei responded to Maduro’s criticism, stating that he did not expect such praise and that Maduro’s comments confirmed that he was on the right path. Milei’s rise to power has led to a fracture in the relations between Caracas and Buenos Aires ...

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Why Venezuela wants to annex Guyana​

Venezuela arrested three aides to opposition candidate María Corina Machado as the government increases pressure on its critics ahead of presidential elections.

Provincial leaders Juan Freites, Guillermo López and Luis Camacaro were detained for their alleged involvement in a recent plot to kill President Nicolás Maduro, Public Prosecutor Tarek William Saab said Friday. Machado had reported them missing since Tuesday.

Maduro has been taking an increasingly harder line as he prepares for another presidential campaign. On Thursday, one of his top allies confirmed he would be the ruling socialist party’s candidate in a bid for a third consecutive six-year term.

Machado — whose popularity in recent polls is twice as high as Maduro’s — is barred from running for public office and is awaiting a judicial decision on the matter. The Supreme Court said Friday it would release rulings in electoral disqualification cases throughout the afternoon.

The US has expressed concern with the Maduro government’s latest moves against the opposition and civil society, which come just a few months after the regime struck a deal aimed at creating conditions for a fairer vote in the second half of the year. After the so-called Barbados agreement was signed, the Biden administration announced a temporary easing of sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector and other key industries.
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Venezuela Activates Plan to Neutralize Coup Attempts​

President Maduro urged citizens to be alert to conspiratorial plans involving the far-right opposition.​

searcher said:

..."Nothing will stop me. ...," Maduro said, ...

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After constant jawboning for over two months, Venezuela is now backing up its threats to annex part of oil-rich Guyana and secure access to some of the world’s largest oil deposits by "moving light tanks, missile-equipped patrol boats and armored carriers to the two countries’ border", the WSJ reported noting that this is set to rapidly turn into a new security headache for the administration of the now officially senile US president.

The deployment, which was visible in satellite images made public Friday and in videos recently posted by Venezuela’s military on social media, is a "major escalation" in Caracas’s attempts to obtain some leverage over its neighbor’s newfound energy reserves, even though any military confrontation will result in an international response that promptly ousts Maduro. It comes despite a written agreement reached in December between the Venezuelan dictator and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali that denounced the use of force and called for a commission to address territorial disputes.
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JayDubya said:

I wonder how many billion of our tax dollars are gonna find their way to Guyana.

Like the old saying - a billion here a billion there and pretty soon you're talking real money

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Venezuela Accuses Guyana of Giving Out Illegal Oil Licenses​

Venezuela’s government on Thursday ordered the local U.N. office on human rights to suspend operations and gave its staff 72 hours to leave, accusing the office of promoting opposition to the South American country.

Foreign Affairs Minister Yván Gil announced the decision at a news conference in Caracas, the capital. Gil’s announcement came on the heels of the detention of human rights attorney Rocio San Miguel, which set off a wave of criticism inside and outside the South American country.
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Venezuela’s troop buildup along its border with Guyana is a breach of international law, Guyana’s Foreign Minister Hugh Todd told the Financial Times Tuesday.

“We are following the rule of international law, Venezuela is violating it,” Todd said.
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The United States on Thursday accused the Venezuelan government of failing to deliver on some of its key commitments that resulted in U.S. sanctions relief last year, despite this week’s announcement of a July 28 date for a presidential election.

Speaking to a think tank in Washington, Brian Nichols, U.S. assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere Affairs, said Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro had taken a number of steps in the “wrong direction.” These measures, he said, include maintaining an election ban on Maria Corina Machado, the leading opposition candidate, and arresting dozens of opposition activists.

Washington has vowed to reimpose sanctions on the OPEC member-state’s vital energy sector by mid-April unless Machado is allowed to run and Maduro follows through on other promises made in a deal with the opposition in Barbados in October.
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Exclusive: Weak bids in Citgo auction spurs Venezuela to pitch alternative pay plan​

Venezuela's Maduro accuses US of building 'secret' bases in disputed region Essequibo​

pmbug said:

It wouldn't surprise me if he's correct. The USA is going to help secure the region one way or another I expect.

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Venezuela’s main opposition coalition agreed Friday to unite behind former diplomat Edmundo González as its challenger to President Nicolás Maduro in this summer’s election, acting one day before the deadline to formalize its candidate.

The decision was reached unanimously by the 10 parties in the Unitary Democratic Platform, Omar Barboza, the coalition’s executive secretary, said after a five-hour meeting that included discussions of other possible candidates.

The bloc had been allowed to provisionally register González on March 26 after the government came under a wave of criticism when opposition leaders said they were blocked from registering their candidate of choice. Saturday was the deadline to make his candidacy final.

The opposition group needed to replace its first candidate, María Corina Machado, who easily won a primary organized by the bloc in October but was barred by the government from running after the ruling party-controlled State Comptroller’s Office disqualified her from holding public office for 15 years.

Maduro’s administration has cracked down on the opposition before the July 28 presidential election despite promises to pave the way to fair elections in exchange for sanctions relief. The Biden administration on Wednesday reimposed crushing oil sanctions, criticizing Maduro’s moves.

The governments of Colombia and Brazil also have expressed concern, and Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo accused Maduro’s government of “consolidating an anti-democratic system.”
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Is Venezuela Serious About Invading Guyana?​

Guyana and the United States have further solidified their partnership through continuous collaboration and investments, bolstering ties across key sectors and contributing to significant economic and social advancements, says the Guyana Government news service.

So, if Venezuela plans to invade Guyana, it is implied, it might have to deal with the US too.

US Ambassador to Guyana, Nicole Theriot highlighted the robust ties in sectors including law enforcement, business, healthcare, education, agriculture, and infrastructure.

She made the statement at the 2024 4th of July celebration Thursday evening, at the Pegasus Suite and Corporate Centre, in Kingston, Georgetown.
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“In the face of bullies and tyrants, the United States will always stand with Guyana. We will continue to grow and prosper together and enjoy peace and security in this critically important region,” she affirmed.
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Upon departing Cuba after military exercises in the Caribbean in June, Russian warships didn't all head home. Some have now arrived at their next stop — Venezuela, along the northern coast of South America.
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"I'll be watching very closely to see whether any Russian military officers participate in upcoming exercises that the Venezuelans have planned, vis-à-vis their campaign against Guyana," Berg said. "That would be an open endorsement of Venezuela's claim against the Essequibo region."
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Venezuelan government to investigate alleged destabilization plan involving opposition, Colombian paramilitary​