carvana blow up and used car prices

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Goldhedge said:
Well, that didn't go as planned.... or maybe it did?
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Probably it did.

These bubbles all seem too pat to blame on coinky-dink. The ride to the top, and then the sudden implosion.

And many here and at GIM saw this coming. But, I guess, not the Robinhood Muppets, who bought in at $300 a share, a year ago.

I didn't think it would, or could, last. It seems a terribly labor-intensive way to sell cars. Pick up and deliver? Elaborate, showy car elevators? On other boards, I've talked to a few posters who have bought through Carvana. The cars they bought were competitively priced, and delivered to the customer's home.

Yet they were paying market in buying used product. I know that because I almost sold an F150 to them...reason I did not, was, they fumbled the pickup, and I don't have time to waste with incompetents.

But, as I said, the numbers weren't adding up. Like the truck farmers, buying eggs at $2 a dozen from the chicken coop, and selling them at the market for $2 a dozen. How come we didn't make money? We needed a bigger truck, damn it. That's why.
 
I sold them a car 3 days ago. I would not have been able the get more anywhere else. I sold it for 4k less than I paid new for it in 2016. I drove it to their tower in Vegas. Easiest transaction ever. Less than 10 minutes I left with the check. Hopefully it clears...lol,, I think funds are supposed to be available tomorrow.
 
living on the edge bj. i recommend staying away from cv. they were already a nightmare to deal with -- paperwork delays, screwups, etc. there are a ton of complaints circulating online

now imagine bk chaos on their already bleeding system -- and then getting put in line behind (the int'l banker) as a creditor

avoid like the plague imo
 
Casey Jones said:
We needed a bigger truck, damn it. That's why.
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Reminds me of when I sold real estate in the late 90's. All these 'wealthy' geek types with long hair making 6 figs working for Oracle, MSFT et al would want your company to have a website. If you didn't you weren't anything. Never mind that you may have been 'in' realty for 20 years already. There barely was any internet in the real world! Mostly dial up 9600 baud. "Oooh! That was fast!" Everyone had to adapt, yesterday!

When I started in '96 the company I was with had a computer - 1, over there in the corner! In 10 years "the book"... remember "the book"? It was that 3lb book of listings one had to wade through like the Sunday paper to find properties, anyway it disappeared because laptops. Everyone who was anyone had a laptop and a web presence. Now they're ubiquitous. Can't do real estate without one and you can do real estate from any place in the world.
BeefJerky said:
Hopefully it clears...lol,,
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I'd be at the bank when it opens today!
 
cheka said:
i keep an eye on autotrader.com. carvana is in danger of going bk. yesterday i did my normal survey on AT - it was swamped with carvana listings. the used car market may finally be breaking as carvana dumps their massive inventory in an attempt to raise cash and stave off bk
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i posted above about two or three weeks ago -- after doing the search mentioned. today -- poof, all gone. no carvana listings came up in the same search

things are happening in the back room? danger
 
cheka said:
living on the edge bj. i recommend staying away from cv. they were already a nightmare to deal with -- paperwork delays, screwups, etc. there are a ton of complaints circulating online

now imagine bk chaos on their already bleeding system -- and then getting put in line behind (the int'l banker) as a creditor

avoid like the plague imo
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The check cleared. Going to be interesting to see if they go under next week. I had no idea they were on the brink of insolvency. But I can't be a more satisfied seller.
 
cheka said:
i posted above about two or three weeks ago -- after doing the search mentioned. today -- poof, all gone. no carvana listings came up in the same search

things are happening in the back room? danger
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Supposedly someone was dumping a bunch of cars on a wholesale site... So maybe they gave up on retail and are trying to dump them even faster to wholesalers. Also, a good indication of an accelerating collapse and soon to file BK. Yep, that was some of what I saw in Bug's post above.
 
Avalon
I fully support your quest to create that place where you are amongst the trees and away from annoying humans.
However I would not use an RV as the centerpiece because they dont hold up well over time and getting rid of a dead one in a few years time will likely need winches/ recovery trucks and good access .....
Here in Blighty we can stick build or purchase a readymade garden shed without the drama of permissions and building code as long as we call it a garden room. A compromise might be to build a tinyhouse on a trailer chassis that can be more easily moved both into position and on to somewhere else in the future ?

And yes, blokes need sheds. The 'Men in Sheds' movement started in Australia and is now a worldwide movement.
It gives lost souls a sense of purpose and some uncomplicated company ......
Many lives have been saved by this movement.
And eerrr, you cant have too many toys or too big a toy cupboard 🙂
 
Maybe something interesting here as well:

Micro/tiny homes

I thought we already had a thread on these, but I can't find it. Pretty cool story:
www.pmbug.com www.pmbug.com
 
Not exactly used...............more like abused.

Flood-Damaged Cars From California Likely To Hit Used Market Soon​

Recent storms that hammered California have dumped years’ worth of rain on the state, causing widespread flooding, and has prompted warnings that flood-damaged vehicles may hit the used car market soon.

In California, 32 trillion gallons of rain and snow fell since Christmas. The water washed out roads, knocked out power, and created mudslides by soaking wildfire-charred hills. It caused damage in 41 of the state’s 58 counties. At least 21 people have died, officials say.

Read on:

Flood-Damaged Cars From California Likely To Hit Used Market Soon | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
rblong2us said:
Avalon
I fully support your quest to create that place where you are amongst the trees and away from annoying humans.
However I would not use an RV as the centerpiece because they dont hold up well over time and getting rid of a dead one in a few years time will likely need winches/ recovery trucks and good access .....
Here in Blighty we can stick build or purchase a readymade garden shed without the drama of permissions and building code as long as we call it a garden room. A compromise might be to build a tinyhouse on a trailer chassis that can be more easily moved both into position and on to somewhere else in the future ?

And yes, blokes need sheds. The 'Men in Sheds' movement started in Australia and is now a worldwide movement.
It gives lost souls a sense of purpose and some uncomplicated company ......
Many lives have been saved by this movement.
And eerrr, you cant have too many toys or too big a toy cupboard 🙂
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In my experience as a contractor, many codes allow for a structure as long as it's "temporary". If it can be moved, it's "Personal Property". Just like your lawnmower, above ground pool etc. With some creativity, one can "get away" with a lot.
 
Newmisty said:
In my experience as a contractor, many codes allow for a structure as long as it's "temporary". If it can be moved, it's "Personal Property". Just like your lawnmower, above ground pool etc. With some creativity, one can "get away" with a lot.
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Years ago, in my hometown (suburb of Cleveland) the zoning code allowed for tool sheds, etc, so long as they had no foundation.

This was before assembly-line-built Rent-To-Own sheds. But there were companies making pre-cut kits, with assembly instructions and numbered parts.

So, a neighbor put one up. Three runners, set on flat cinder blocks (solid) and the deck screwed down onto those runners. Build the walls on the ground, set them up, brace them, nail them to the floor. Then the roof - I guess the owner-builder had to be able to do a small-scale shingle job.

But then, living outside Buffalo, I couldn't repair a porch handrail without getting a permit.

Everywhere it's different. Houston, 1982, HAD no zoning. Which had its own problems...like people renting out their garages as apartments, and chicken coops in small backyards (ohhh, that SMELL....)
 
Casey Jones said:
Years ago, in my hometown (suburb of Cleveland) the zoning code allowed for tool sheds, etc, so long as they had no foundation.

This was before assembly-line-built Rent-To-Own sheds. But there were companies making pre-cut kits, with assembly instructions and numbered parts.

So, a neighbor put one up. Three runners, set on flat cinder blocks (solid) and the deck screwed down onto those runners. Build the walls on the ground, set them up, brace them, nail them to the floor. Then the roof - I guess the owner-builder had to be able to do a small-scale shingle job.

But then, living outside Buffalo, I couldn't repair a porch handrail without getting a permit.

Everywhere it's different. Houston, 1982, HAD no zoning. Which had its own problems...like people renting out their garages as apartments, and chicken coops in small backyards (ohhh, that SMELL....)
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Handrails are one of the single most important items in terms of safety and meeting a standard of code. Height, width, shape etc are all crucial in creating a safe environment for anyone using the space. The "4" ball test" is regarding spacing between balusters which cannot exceed 4" due to the size of an infant's head. Most codes allow you to repair existing non code compliant items as long as it is not changed in terms of design. Once changed in original design occur, the upgraded change technically needs to meet the IRC (International Residential Code).

The difference in plopping down a moveable shed and fabricating a safety item is notable.
 
Newmisty said:
Handrails are one of the single most important items in terms of safety and meeting a standard of code. Height, width, shape etc are all crucial in creating a safe environment for anyone using the space. The "4" ball test" is regarding spacing between balusters which cannot exceed 4" due to the size of an infant's head. Most codes allow you to repair existing non code compliant items as long as it is not changed in terms of design. Once changed in original design occur, the upgraded change technically needs to meet the IRC (International Residential Code).

The difference in plopping down a moveable shed and fabricating a safety item is notable.
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Nice theory; but in practice, it didn't/doesn't fly.

What the town/county government wanted was the PERMIT FEES. Plus, they tried to arm-twist me into getting an architect to draw up a blueprint.

I used a photo-editing tool to make a head-on photo black and white, as if I'd sketched it; and then scribed measurements in (approximate, but I didn't tell them that). The town office workers were so ignorant, they couldn't see it wasn't a professional blueprint (it would have been obvious to a real contractor.

So, I paid my $75 and was permitted to put up my railing. Nobody inspected completion.
 
Here's one, CJ: Useta be a fargin law that you could not build a permanent shed on your property, but you could have a temporary (read: removable) shed wherever you pleased.

Then came Hurricane Andrew in 1985.

When the dust settled, the law got changed: Permanent sheds built to code were fine. (I think they are still finding pieces of Erector Set sheds in the swamp.)
 
I see that all the time.

When I was a kid in high school, smoking cigarettes was so okay, we were given a place to do it.

Now, of course, smokers - of tobacco - have to be treated like lepers. Not enough to make them go outside; you have to deny them any shelter or roof of any sort.

Meantime...electrical codes: Used to be, code REQUIRED armored sheathing for 120v electrical cable. You've seen it: From junction box to junction box, that armored tubing that looks a little like Flex Pipe muffler repair, only far smaller.

Now, it's not only not required; it's forbidden in many places. I'm guessing that it took a number of big fires for the Fire Marshalls to figure out, the risk of friction and chafing inside the sheathing, is less than the risk of just stapling high-amperage cable to studs.

Always it's the midwit bureaucrats who set themselves up as "experts" who have to drastically reverse themselves.
 
It used to be knob and post...

at least they used a junction box!

main-qimg-fd544b5d470d2bc40bf467bcc59d9ab0.jpeg

safety first!
 
Casey Jones said:
I see that all the time.

When I was a kid in high school, smoking cigarettes was so okay, we were given a place to do it.

Now, of course, smokers - of tobacco - have to be treated like lepers. Not enough to make them go outside; you have to deny them any shelter or roof of any sort.

Meantime...electrical codes: Used to be, code REQUIRED armored sheathing for 120v electrical cable. You've seen it: From junction box to junction box, that armored tubing that looks a little like Flex Pipe muffler repair, only far smaller.

Now, it's not only not required; it's forbidden in many places. I'm guessing that it took a number of big fires for the Fire Marshalls to figure out, the risk of friction and chafing inside the sheathing, is less than the risk of just stapling high-amperage cable to studs.

Always it's the midwit bureaucrats who set themselves up as "experts" who have to drastically reverse themselves.
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Start writing. Cut the bullshit and start.
 

Carvana Sells Stolen Car to Man: Police Seize It​

Mar 26, 2023


14:46

The Maserati had a cloned VIN. And was the wrong year.
 
...
In the auto industry, subprime is largely confined to older used vehicles. Less than 5% of new vehicle sales are financed with loans or leases to subprime-rated customers (more in a moment). The sweet-spot is 8-to-12-year-old vehicles, only a corner of the used vehicle business. But in that corner, several subprime-specialized dealer-chains – owned by PE firms – have already filed for bankruptcy this year, and we covered a couple of them here. Others are struggling.

Yesterday, it was the turn of America’s Car-Mart – a publicly traded subprime-specialized used-vehicle dealer chain – to confess in its quarterly earnings, upon which its shares [CRMT] tanked by a combined 21% yesterday and today. They’re down by 61% from the free-money peak in August 2021. What felled the shares yesterday and today was the disclosure of a massive jump in charge-offs and loan losses ...
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More:


We already know from other disclosures that American consumers in the bottom 75% are getting squeezed. I would have to assume that pressure on the sub-prime market is going to increase.
 
...
That’s one of the interesting aspects here: prices have been dropping despite fairly tight used vehicle inventories. It’s not like there’s a glut of vehicles on the market, but it looks like enough consumers have finally gone on buyers’ strike, and they’re staying on buyers’ strike, and that’s what it takes to bring prices back down.
...
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I saw that and I cannot believe it.

Here's why: New cars are at once, unaffordable; undriveable for all their compliance crap (auto start/stop, "driving aids" etc) and unreliable over time (for the complexity). Eric Peters, on his site, documented how, with a rental Dodge with a dead battery...he could not jump-start it; and HE COULD NOT REPLACE THE BATTERY.

Unbelieveably complex. First, you can't get to it. Second, it's part of a complex electronic web, with TWO batteries, one for only the auto-start/stop system. Third, the master computer module has to be re-booted with a new battery...and THAT, involves proprietary software and connecting equipment.

So it's a dealer item; and the dealer was five days deep on work. Five days without a car - because of a WEAK BATTERY.

The answer to this, of course, is a USED car - that you can drive, that lasts, that your local independent mechanic can fix.

So I can't see why prices are falling...even though consumers are stressed. People still need cars, but not Barackmobiles.
 
Consumer (credit card/mortgage) debt is rising and folks aren't willing to shell out for big ticket items at (relatively) high interest rates. It would be interesting to see if there is a similar drop off in sales of new cars as well.
 
pmbug said:
Consumer (credit card/mortgage) debt is rising and folks aren't willing to shell out for big ticket items at (relatively) high interest rates. It would be interesting to see if there is a similar drop off in sales of new cars as well.
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Except...the price of used, USED cars, now.

Yeah, they've fallen. But a $10,000 used car is now an inexpensive used car.

How many people can reach into their pockets for THAT? Even I cannot, and I'm more liquid than 99.9 percent.

I bought a 23-year-old truck, in great shape. Cost me $9k. A NEW truck would have been over $30k.

Now, of course, the obvious, commonsense choice would be to make do with what you have; but I didn't have that choice. I'd been wrecked, no car at all.

So, why this? Brain-fog?
 
CiscoKid said:
I'm looking for a pre-1970 pickup truck. I want something with no computers. Boy are they ever pricey!
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Frankly, those are not practical for use. You're talking something over 55 years old. Parts books are closed; nobody out there who's ever worked on the things. Just getting a shop manual would be a task.

I'd think you'd have better luck trying to import a grey-market Mexican pickup truck from the 1990s. Ford, GM, Dodge or Toyota.
 
Casey Jones said:
Frankly, those are not practical for use. You're talking something over 55 years old. Parts books are closed; nobody out there who's ever worked on the things. Just getting a shop manual would be a task.

I'd think you'd have better luck trying to import a grey-market Mexican pickup truck from the 1990s. Ford, GM, Dodge or Toyota.
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I'll keep it running. I want something before computers existed.
 
searcher said:
Maybe try

- https://bringatrailer.com/

- https://www.hemmings.com/classifieds/cars-for-sale

- https://classics.autotrader.com/classic-cars-for-sale/classic_trucks-for-sale

Even if you don't find anything it's neat to look around these sites.
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Oh, it's fun to look, but that's as far as it goes. No freaking way I'm spending $30k+ on a fifty year old pickup truck. The prices are insane. Where I live, I'm better off looking at farm auctions.

Not looking for restored or fancy. Want wind up windows, a small block engine, no computers, points and condenser are fine. I want something that will still run if they fry the grid. Of course, that's only good as long as you have fuel for it. But there will be a lot of vehicles sitting around with full tanks that have no way of using it.
 
CiscoKid said:
I'm looking for a pre-1970 pickup truck. I want something with no computers. Boy are they ever pricey!
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i keep a 89 toyota 4wd pickup on the farm that is road worthy ....it is a model with early fuel injection but their are carb models the same year ...these old 22r ..22re engines are pretty easy to work on ...and parts havent been a issue....im up to 250k...just had the motor rebuilt (traded some gold for it LOL) ....but overall its a good simple package .....wish it had a 60s era small block in it as that is what i grew up on .......just build a grounded metal building that will work as a faraday cage
 
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