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Market enthusiasts call it a “golden cross,” indicating a positive shift in asset prices, and now this marker has finally appeared on the bitcoin (BTC) weekly price chart.
The 50-week simple moving average (SMA) on bitcoin has crossed over the 200-week SMA for the first time on record, confirming the golden cross. ...
Bitcoin [BTC) has dropped over 15% since the inaugural launch of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last week with several billion in assets flowing out of Grayscale's GBTC. While a chunk of those billions has been from investors moving to lower fee ETFs and another chunk from investors taking profits on GBTC's (and bitcoin's) absolute price rise, at least some of that money is due to traders exiting what's likely been a very profitable bet that GBTC's discount to net asset value (NAV) would narrow.
“It looks like GBTC investors who over the past year had been buying the GBTC fund at a significant discount to NAV to position for its eventual ETF conversion, have been taking full profit post-ETF conversion by exiting the bitcoin space entirely rather than shifting to cheaper spot bitcoin ETFs,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.
Before being uplisted to an ETF from a trust, GBTC was one of one of the only ways for stock traders in the U.S. to gain exposure to the price movements of bitcoin without the need to purchase the actual cryptocurrency. That made it the largest regulated bitcoin fund in the world by AUM. The bank had previously estimated that up to $3 billion had been invested in GBTC in the secondary market during 2023 to exploit the trust’s discount to NAV. If this estimate is correct, and given that $1.5 billion has already exited, there could be an additional $1.5 billion to exit the space via profit-taking on GBTC, which will put further pressure on bitcoin prices in the coming weeks. These outflows are also putting pressure on GBTC to lower its fees, the report said, adding that the “GBTC fee at 1.5% still looks too high compared to other spot bitcoin ETFs risking further outflows.” “A lot more capital, perhaps an additional $5 billion-$10 billion, could exit GBTC if it loses its liquidity advantage,” the bank cautioned. As of Friday, GBTC is the most expensive ETF among counterparts, with some charging zero fees for the first six months or until a certain assets under management (AUM) target is reached.
JPMorgan says other spot bitcoin ETFs, minus GBTC, attracted $3 billion of inflows in only four days, and this is comparable to the inflows seen during previous bitcoin product launches. Most of this $3 billion of inflows reflects a rotation from existing bitcoin vehicles such as futures-based ETFs, the report added.
Ether (ETH), the native token of Ethereum’s blockchain, underperformed bitcoin (BTC) in 2023, as the latter’s new-found smart contract, non-fungible tokens (NFT) narrative, and spot ETF optimism drew investor money.
Per analysts, investors will likely have a relook at ether this year as Ethereum is still the world’s leading smart contract blockchain with key upgrades lined up, and ether is widely seen as the next likely candidate to get a spot-based ETF in the U.S.
“ETH could be poised for a breakout year,” Nasdaq-listed crypto exchange Coinbase said in the weekly newsletter. “Last week’s bitcoin ETF news proved to be a boon for ethereum, which briefly spiked above $2,700 — reaching its highest price since May 2022. And there are reasons to be even more optimistic about ETH’s near-term future. For one, several of the firms behind the BTC ETFs — including BlackRock and VanEck — are also plotting ether-based spot ETFs.”
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In addition, Ethereum’s upcoming Dencun upgrade, which aims to improve the mainnet’s scalability by introducing “data blobs,” could galvanize investor interest in the cryptocurrency, according to Coinbase. The upgrade went live on Ethereum’s Goerli testnet early this week.
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Investors have sold more than $2 billion worth of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) since it was converted into an exchange-traded fund earlier this month.
A large chunk of that exodus was FTX's bankruptcy estate dumping 22 million shares, according to private data CoinDesk reviewed and two people familiar with the matter.
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The data CoinDesk saw suggests FTX accounted for much of that. The 22 million shares it sold – which took FTX's GBTC ownership down to zero – were worth close to $1 billion.
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... In theory, now that FTX is done selling its substantial holdings, the selling pressure could ease since a bankruptcy estate liquidating holdings is a relatively unique event.
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I have no idea.If Bitcoin didn't exist where would they be putting that $433M each and every day?
That $433M represent inflows into the spot BTC ETFs. It's presumably mostly institutional investors wanting BTC exposure in their portfolios. I'm going to guess if it weren't flowing into the BTC ETFs, it would likely just be distributed amongst vehicles already in their existing portfolios (stocks, bonds, etc.).
And you think they are actually buying Bitcoins with that money? ...
For example, who is entrusted with the key set? ...
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Do spot Bitcoin ETFs have custodianship risk?
Most spot Bitcoin ETFs rely on a third-party custodian to actually store the Bitcoin they hold — much like how spot gold ETFs often keep their physical gold holdings in the vault of a third-party custodian.
Eight out of the 10 currently-trading spot Bitcoin ETFs use Coinbase (COIN) as their Bitcoin custodian. The only exceptions are the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), which uses Fidelity itself as a custodian, and the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL), which uses Gemini.
Coinbase's dominance in Bitcoin ETF custodianship has created concerns about custodianship risk. If Coinbase ran into severe financial trouble in the future — for example, due to a cyberattack, a government penalty, or a decline in its revenue — would the holdings of Bitcoin ETFs be safe?
There are mechanisms by which ETFs — and investors themselves — could recover their holdings in the event of a Coinbase bankruptcy, but they wouldn't necessarily be instant or automatic. So custodianship risk may be something to consider while shopping for a spot Bitcoin ETF.
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Yes, that is what is being reported by the Bitcoin analysts and media who study the blockchain movements.
China is a police state and Social-Credit-Score dystopian hell.I had not considered that economic distress in China might push locals there to buy crypto. Interesting.
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While many are concerned that large sell-offs could continue as Grayscale still holds more than 500,000 BTC, analysts at JPMorgan think the GBTC profit-taking is mostly concluded.
The analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, previously estimated that GBTC would see $3 billion in outflows. With the total now past $4.3 billion, they said that the expected profit-taking has largely happened already. "In turn, this would imply that most of the downward pressure on Bitcoin from that channel should be largely behind us," the analysts said in a note on Thursday.
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Yes, interesting but also sad.I had not considered that economic distress in China might push locals there to buy crypto. Interesting.
Web3 payments infrastructure provider Transak joined Visa Direct, making it easier for its users to convert their cryptocurrency holdings into regular currency.
Transak’s payment and onboarding services allow users to buy and sell crypto assets, handling the know-your-customer (KYC) requirements, risk monitoring and compliance on behalf of its clients, which include MetaMask and Coinbase Wallet. The Web3 startup raised $20 million last year in a Series A round to fund a global expansion. The Visa Direct program lets third-party providers connect to Visa’s network and routes payments directly onto Visa cards.
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According to a report from Finder, a panel of 40 industry specialists predict that Bitcoin's price will rise to an average of $77,423 by year-end 2024 before rising to $122,688 in 2025.
“The halving, easing macro conditions and enhanced access through ETFs are fundamentally positive price forces for the year as a whole,” said Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Research.
Lunde said he thinks Bitcoin will peak at $79,000 in 2024, before reaching $150,000 in 2025, as it will take time for inflows into ETFs to “materialize in price effect, as it also introduces structural changes to the market.”
“Overall, the majority (58%) of panelists say now is the time to buy BTC, 38% to hold, and only 5% to sell,” Finder concluded.
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It all leads back to the basic question von Mises tried to answer: What is money?
Bitcoin answers many of those qualities, but not a couple. ...
Who can explain it, proof-positive, that it cannot be copied or hacked? ...
Crypto lender Genesis Global Capital, currently undergoing bankruptcy proceedings, has requested permission to sell trust assets worth approximately $1.6 billion.
In a motion filed with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in the Southern District of New York, the firm sought approval to sell assets held by Genesis, a subsidiary of the Digital Currency Group.
The assets include shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) valued at around $1.4 billion, shares of Grayscale Ethereum Trust valued at about $165 million, and shares of Grayscale Ethereum Classic Trust valued at approximately $38 million
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The European Central Bank is predicting Bitcoin’s imminent demise. ...
I wonder if they have a citation for that.
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