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The total amount of Treasury securities outstanding has reached $33.68 trillion. Of that amount, $26.56 trillion are held by the public, and $7.12 trillion are securities held by government entities, such as government pension funds, the Social Security Trust Fund, etc. Those securities “held internally” are not traded and don’t have direct consequences on the supply of new securities to the market.
Here we’re talking about the debt held by the “public,” such as foreign holders, the Fed, cash-rich corporations, banks, bond funds, insurance companies, individuals, and folks like me. And that public is going to have to buy the additional $1.59 trillion in securities by the end of Q1.
Foreign holders have been increasing their holdings at a glacial pace, much more slowly than the issuance increased, and foreign holders’ share of marketable securities has dropped sharply.
The Fed, as part of QT, has shed $860 billion in Treasury securities so far, and its holdings’ share of marketable Treasuries has declined sharply.
So US investors, pension funds, insurance companies, bond funds, etc., need to be persuaded to step up to the table and buy those securities. And to pull ever more buyers to the table, yields have risen, and the tsunami of new issuance indicates that even more buyers, reluctant buyers, will have to be pulled in with even higher longer-term yields to come.