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The IMF has noted that central bankers typically cut interest rates by 5% to 6% during recessions. However, with interest rates in many countries close to zero, this does not give them enough room to cut as it has been considered difficult to cut rates below zero because people could just withdraw physical cash from the bank to avoid having to pay to keep their money in digital form.
The IMF, maybe taking inspiration from its namesake the Impossible Mission Force (cue Tom Cruise), has recently provided a handy
guide for its 189 member countries on how to enable deep negative rates (emphasis,
deep), saying that zero need not be a bound(ry). What is noteworthy about the release of this document is that it indicates that in central bank circles, negative rates has moved from a “should we do it” discussion to “how do we do it”.
While the idea of paying to hold money, or even paying people to borrow money, may seem absurd, the IMF sees deep negative rates as “critical for central banks to maintain effectiveness of monetary policy in the future and will help mitigate the hardships associated with prolonged recessions”. At least they are explicit that lower interest rates “work” because they favour borrowers at the expense of lenders (i.e. savers) as borrowers are more likely to spend any reduction in their loan repayments. Seems like a one-sided hardship mitigation.
In additional to setting a lower exchange rate between paper and digital currency (e.g. when depositing $100 cash in a bank, you only get $98 credit to your account), which is the IMF’s preferred approach, they discuss other methods of enforcing negative interest rates including:
- Cash withdrawal limits or limits on cash deposits
- Purposely keeping low inventory of cash in bank branches
- Banning storage of paper currency as a business
- Putting restrictions on flows of paper currency in and out of the country
- Retiring large denomination notes
- Abolishing paper currency outright
If you think this all sounds unlikely, governments have shown a willingness to consider similar measures. The Federal Government is still pushing forward with its $10,000 cash payment limit to commence on 1 January 2020 (delayed from 1 July 2019). ...