Fed will overshoot rate increases

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<SLV> said:
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Real numbers. Inflation is falling.
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I just happened to visit truflation.com this morning (see below). Looks like their data showed declining rate of inflation from June to October and then it spiked back upwards:

truflation.png


This is what led me to the site:

Dear D.O.G.E.

At Truflation.com, 3 years ago in the disbelief that inflation was transitory we launched the first, fully real-time, US inflation index.

Trusted by investors and economists globally, Truflation utilizes its dedicated Application Specific Blockchain providing transparency, governed by an independent network, and leveraging a consensus algorithm verifying data quality and accuracy.

Truflation tracks the granular movement of consumer prices in real-time (daily) computing:

  • 30 Million Price Points.
  • 3 price feeds for every price point.
  • Sourced from over 80 different data providers and APIs.
  • In partnership with Universities.
  • Deployed on a decentralized database built with US technologies.
  • Maintained, operated and enhanced by a network of 20 different node operators.
  • Backed by Chainlink, Coinbase and Balaji Sirivasan.
Despite wide recognition among economists and investors, attempts to work with the BLS and its Agencies have failed, yet outsourcing the BLS to Truflation aligns with DOGE’s mandate to

  • Eliminate bureaucracy
  • Adopt technology-driven solutions
  • Increase velocity of information distribution
  • Accelerate financial and economic growth
Screenshot-at-Dec-02-14-01-04.png

Truflation has demonstrated its capability working with the Argentina Government, exposing government data as a public good while acting as the independent source of truth for Argentina CPI calculations.

Due to the real time availability of the economic data combined with the index calculations and other benefits, Truflation can unlock significant financial value opening new markets accelerating investment decisions, as well as optimizing central interest rate policies.

We would love to explore the opportunity to collaborate with DOGE and explore unlocking true economic potential bringing about and documenting the economic renaissance.

Sincerely,

Stefan Rust
Founder of Truflation.
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What is coming is inevitable. Get rid of all "savings" or "market investment" dollars or lose what they represent.

Change my mind:

1735982999244.jpeg
 
Joe King said:
Bouts of high inflation is like tsunamis. It comes in waves. Second wave incoming.
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I honestly think inflation is more like a tidal bore. We are in the first five seconds of this video:

 
^^:
Ron Paul said:
... President Trump should follow through on his critiques of the Fed by working with Congress to pass the audit of the Fed bill and legislation allowing people to use alternatives like precious metals and cryptocurrencies.
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Yeah!
 
searcher said:

To Make America Great Again, Separate Money and State

Restoring a free market in money is key to fulfilling President Trump’s inaugural pledge to bring about a new golden age.
goldseek.com goldseek.com
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Wasn't that the idea behind making the Central Bank (FRB) PRIVATE, owned by "citizens" (commercial bankster interests) and not the government?

So what it did, is draw the banksters closer into the Ruling Class circles. Fascism - a melding of government and corporate.

We would have been far better off leaving money as the prerogative of the Treasury, abiding by the Constitution: Only gold and silver being lawful money.

But laws, rules, regulations and Constitution sections all count for nothing without morality of the Ruling Elite.
 
Prices were way up at the grocery store....I have not bought beer in a long time but damn it isn't cheap...
 

Fed holds rates steady, drops reference to inflation 'progress' from policy statement​

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday and gave little insight into when further reductions in borrowing costs may take place in an economy where inflation remains above target, growth continues, and the unemployment rate is low.

After several months in which inflation data have largely moved sideways, the U.S. central bank dropped from its latest policy statement language saying that inflation "has made progress" towards the Fed's 2% inflation goal, noting only that the pace of price increases "remains elevated."

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/oth...S&cvid=3b5fb50ffc034b85ab5beffc1df7ec46&ei=21
 
The Fed's greatest trick
Convincing the world they fight
not stoke inflation
 
SilverSamurai said:
The Fed's greatest trick
Convincing the world they fight
not stoke inflation
Click to expand...
Not at all.

That's the Frankfurt School's greatest trick.

The Fed is a tool. So is Big Education - K-to-postgrad.

CONSTANTLY redefine, obfuscate, obliterate, feed irrelevant data into the system. Deliberately confuse INFLATION - a growth (inflation) of the money supply without wealth to back it, with PRICE INCREASES, simply reflecting that the cost of something is more than it was. Crop failures are not inflation. Regulatory cost pass-alongs are not inflation. Scarcity of raw materials is not inflation.

PRINTING MONEY is inflation. That's the ONE thing the Cultural Marxists want us NOT to explore.

Because money-printing is central to their game plan.
 
Jan 30, 2025
Former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's interest rate decision, key takeaways from Fed Chair Powell's commentary, and more.


3:44
 
FWIW...........

Fed's rate cuts are off the table if tariffs come through, says KPMG's Diane Swonk​

Feb 7, 2025

Diane Swonk, KPMG chief economist, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss Swonk's thoughts on the Federal Reserve this year, if inflation is still stickier than estimated, and much more.


5:34
 

Fed Governor Bowman says more progress on inflation is needed before further rate cuts​

  • Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday she wants to see data reflect more progress on inflation before cutting interest rates further.
  • While she expects inflation to continue to decelerate this year, she said disinflation “may take longer than we would hope.”
  • The Fed maintained its target rate at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% at its January policy meeting.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday that while monetary policy “is now in a good place,” she wants to see data reflect more progress on inflation before cutting interest rates further.

“I would like to gain greater confidence that progress in lowering inflation will continue as we consider making further adjustments to the target range,” Bowman said in a speech at the American Bankers Association.

More:

 
I think they've rediscovered the value - to them - of higher interest rates.

It puts the brakes on the Borrow-Fed-money-to-buy-stonx-for-house-accounts game.

That will mean the market will fall from its dizzying bubblicious heights.

THAT will be something the Mockingbird Media propagandists can hang on DRUMPF!!
 
The Fed is supposed to take away to the Punch when the party gets started, but it should have never been this zero percent 💩 crap. Now we have to wait to see which market collapses first, real estate, stocks, or precious metals. I've got cash to buy whatever dips...
 
Current inflation cycle laid over top of the 70's inflation.

The vertical scale is different, but the trends match.


inflation.png
 

Powell says Fed is awaiting ‘greater clarity’ on Trump policies before making next move on rates​

  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that the central bank can wait to see how President Donald Trump’s aggressive policy actions play out before it moves again on interest rates.
  • “We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity,” the central bank chief said at a policy forum in New York.
NEW YORK — Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that the central bank can wait to see how President Donald Trump’s aggressive policy actions play out before it moves again on interest rates.

With markets nervous over Trump’s proposals for tariffs and other issues, Powell reiterated statements he and his colleagues have made recently counseling patience on monetary policy amid the high level of uncertainty.

More:

 
CPI print came out showing lower inflation than expected. Markets expect that means the Fed will be more inclined to cut rates. Market bloodbaths will likely be put on hold until the next set of data says otherwise.
 

Fed Put On Standby, While Trump Put May Be Kaput? Analysts Expect Jerome Powell To Pivot To A Measured Stance Amid Economic Uncertainty​

The Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting begins today and the market consensus expects the central bank to hold key interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Despite this, analysts believe that Chairman Jerome Powell could pivot to a measured stance while being on standby as the White House remains firm on its policies.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/new...S&cvid=ed0b032cef8c4545864fa4afd0842c44&ei=44
 
Fatrat said:
Total horseshit, inflation is kicking ass...
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Yup, the confusion between INFLATION - inflating the supply of money - and PRICE RISES - which can be due to any number of things - this confusion is now institutionalized.

PRICES are going down. Because we're no longer committing genocide on chickens and beef cattle; and because we're not throwing up new barricades to refining more oil. Egg prices increased fivefold, but that wasn't inflation - it was scarcity, the frantic attempt of the Deep State to launch an American Holodomor. Slaughter the food supply on spurious grounds, because of an "emergency."

The money-supply HAS risen - currency created without wealth backing it - and it continues to leach into the economy from its entry points, mostly the stonk market.

I think we may be at our Wiemar Moment. Remember, Germany's madcap inflation didn't start that way - the money-printing to pay off War Reparations, started eight years earlier, and for the first five years, the postwar German economy seemed to be doing fine.
 
Anyone here pay attention to Tom Luongo? Gold Goats & Guns. He's said for a LONG time, Powell - although obviously a Central Banker - is also a patriot at heart. He hates Trump, because his class is supposed to hate him; but he's a Mayflower blue-blood, and he's determined to save the dollar, rather than juicing the system with ZIRP-QE again.

Now, now that the blank line with the D behind it, was defeated at the polls, Powell's way is clear. Do NOT continue the easy path to malinvestment. Probably he'd want to bring interest rates HIGHER, Volcker-style; but he perhaps doesn't want to be removed by Congress. What Volcker did can never be repeated - because people in office no longer THINK.

But it appears Powell's looking to try to save the dollar at Trump's expense. Had the placeholder with the D won/stolen it, it would be a harder choice for him.
 
What, that can't BE! We've had these tariffs in place FOUR WHOLE DAYS! Why didn't factories rise up like mushrooms, with ready jobs and paychecks already mailed!
 
Casey Jones said:
... We've had these tariffs in place FOUR WHOLE DAYS! ...
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The new 10% tariffs will go into effect on April 5, 2025 (tomorrow), while higher reciprocal tariffs for certain countries will take effect on April 9, 2025.
 
VDH on tariffs.

He makes many valid points. Never mind his plodding delivery; it's worth a listen.

 
Hell, stores are already raising prices knowing they can blame the tariffs, just like gas stations raising prices BEFORE the storm hits...
 
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