(redacted) are rigging employment stats

[cheka]

everything is rigged -- example number 214. chinese-style communism continues under the (redacted) control of nyc/dc

not my bold

Here Comes The Job Shock: Philadelphia Fed Admits US Jobs "Overstated" By At Least 1.1 Million | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

... due to the record high rate of estimation - recall the 49% Establishment survey response rate was much lower than the 70-75% rate typical in November, meaning the Dept of Labor was literally making numbers up to "complete" the survey...



... or some other reason, perhaps including the Biden admin tapping certain Bureau of Labor Statistics officials on the shoulder and advising them to show strong numbers if they want to keep their... well... jobs, we did not know, but we did know that according to the Household Survey, just 12,000 jobs were created since March, while according to the Establishment Survey - which moves markets and sets Fed policy - the increase in jobs over the same period was 2.692 million!

more at link...

 

[pmbug]

There's a reason folks call them the BLSBS.

 

[Voodoo]

Meet Kevin does a good video and presents the reason via the Philly Fed research.

 

[Viking]

Meet Kevin does a good video and presents the reason via the Philly Fed research.

Goods inflation going down? Does he mean rate of inflation in goods? Goods have gone up a lot, I have not seen them come down.

 

[Voodoo]

Goods inflation going down? Does he mean rate of inflation in goods? Goods have gone up a lot, I have not seen them come down.

Ya I think so, he makes a point of looking for inflection points. I don't remember that specific part though.

 

[cheka]

Goods inflation going down? Does he mean rate of inflation in goods? Goods have gone up a lot, I have not seen them come down.

ony in (redacted) speech do rising prices get conflated/characterized as going down/falling. half of the country are complete morons -- this kind of talk is to fool them

without deceit it would read something like this -- prices are up 7 percent. this is more than triple the corrupt central bankers' stated target of 2 percent

 

[pmbug]

* bump *

... a little over a year after we, or rather the Philly Fed, found that the BLS had overstated payrolls in 2022 by 1.1 million, here we go again, only this time the BLS had overstated payrolls by 800,000 through Dec 2023 (and more if one were to extend the data series into 2024). It's truly statistically remarkable how every time the data error is in favor of a stronger, if fake, economy.
...

More (long and blistering commentary on the BLS):

Philadelphia Fed Admits US Payrolls Overstated By At Least 800,000 | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[pmbug]

Calling the state of the U.S. jobs market these days stable seems like an understatement considering the latest data coming out of the Labor Department.

That's because most of the past several weeks have shown that first-time claims for unemployment benefits haven't fluctuated at all — as in zero.

For five of the past six weeks, the level of initial jobless filings totaled exactly 212,000. Given a labor force that is 168 million strong, achieving such stasis seems at least unusual if not uncanny, yet that is what the figures released each Thursday morning since mid-March have shown.

The consistency has raised a few eyebrows on Wall Street. The only week that varied was March 30, with 222,000.

"How is this statistically possible? Five of the last six weeks, the exact same number," market veteran Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research, posted Thursday on X.

"Initial claims for unemployment insurance are state programs, with 50 state rules, hundreds of offices, and 50 websites to file. Weather, seasonality, holidays, and economic vibrations drive the number of people filing claims from week to week," he added. "Yet this measure is so stable that it does not vary by even 1,000 applications a week."
...

More:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/19/something-strange-has-been-happening-with-jobless-claims-numbers-lately.html

They aren't even trying to make the imaginary numbers look real any more.

 

[WinkWink]

 

[pmbug]

I have not checked his work:

 

[pmbug]

 

[SilverSamurai]

Numbers sway markets
Little manipulations
Big consequences

 

[pmbug]

This is concerning:

Non-farm payroll employment in Q2 2024 actually declined by -0.1% instead of growing +1.1% as initially reported by the BLS.

In other words, the 442,000 jobs added in Q2 will likely be revised NEGATIVE in February 2025, according to Philadelphia Fed analysis.

Fed estimates revealed that employment was lower in 25 states, higher in 2 states, and remained the same in 23 states.

This should result in another large downward revision as seen in August when the jobs number was revised lower by -818,000.

After "strong" labor market data beats expectations, they are revised massively lower several months later.

What is happening here?

 

[nickndfl]

After Trump gets sworn in they will report exaggerated nmubers to the negative