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Record high gold price over the weekend, but average attendance again at our local coin show. Dealers raised their prices though probably anticipating PMs going up.
 
The most important things to watch in my mind are the VIX and bond markets. And bonds are getting routed, meaning interest rates are heading up. That's bad news for the old regime.
 
Schizo markets aren't sure what's happening any more.

Bears!
By Tatiana Darie, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist

The stocks selloff is displaying features that were often seen back when shares plunged in 2022, which is a warning for equities now.

The S&P 500 has fallen for seven of the past 11 trading sessions through Monday, leaving its hit ratio — the amount of daily gains as percentage of total trading days — at 36.4%, on pace for its weakest since December 2022.
...
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"No Clear Trend What Happens Next": Stocks Are Displaying Bearish Features Last Seen In 2022 | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

Bulls!
U.S. stock futures were higher on Wednesday morning after the S&P 500 notched its third straight day of losses.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, while Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advanced 47 points, or 0.1%.
...
Mayfield sees equities trading mostly range-bound in the near term, with an exception being if any geopolitical event spikes oil prices even higher.

"The primary headwind is the hawkish repricing of Fed expectations. I don't think Fed Chair Powell did much to ease those concerns today, perhaps intentionally," he told CNBC. "The market is getting to a place where it's questioning whether there will be a rate cut at all in 2024."
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Meanwhile, gold keeps plugging along.
 
...
"When we do the risk assessment around that baseline, the chances that we would have something like a global recession is fairly minimal. At this point, it will take a lot to derail this economy. So there has been tremendous resilience in terms of growth prospects," Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic counsellor and director of the research department at the IMF, told CNBC's Karen Tso on Tuesday at the group's meeting in New York.
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I wonder if Pierre-Olivier is related to Jim Cramer... :paperbag:
 
This is a pretty good analysis, I think.

 
Thanks for the links! Good stuff!

I will just posit that a mysterious buyer being true does not refute a commodities super-cycle.

And a commodities super-cycle does not refute there being a mysterious price-insensitive buyer.

IMHO, if cycles exist (and they seem to), they can probably be explained in real time by the actions of individual entities that *cause* them to occur.

Just some thoughts. I certainly see geopolitical events on the horizon to support "mysterious" buyers at this time. Good stuff.
 
Mysterious buyer theory does make the cost of popcorn go higher. :popcorn:
 
Goldhedge said:
People, average Joe on the street types... are waking up to reality...?
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Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is hardly an average Joe on the street - he's very well connected and largely seen as a mouthpiece for the BoE and friends, but yeah, it's a bit surprising to see these topics covered in a MSM publication.
 
Israel-Iran escalating is bad news for global economy. I think Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas is a genius on par with Cramer.
 
Markets seem to have reverted all the kneejerk reaction to the Isael attacking Iran news last night. I suppose things will trade normally until the next escalation. :noevil:
 
We're gonna be rich! RICH! I tell ya... I'll be toothless, but RICH!!

War fears keeping gold in high consolidation around $2400​

Within six weeks after the major breakout above $2100, gold has gone through $2300 and quickly moved over $2400, suggesting that $2500 is within sight. After soaring to nearly $2450 last Friday, Gold Futures made a strong $75 reversal but not a key reversal, as gold prices did not take out the low of the previous day.

Gold appears set to close a fourth consecutive week above its upper weekly Bollinger Band, an algorithm designed to keep price action between an upper and lower level 95% of the time. The gold price is now consolidating inside of a symmetrical triangle with resistance on last Friday's high at $2450, and support on the following Comex session low at $2340.
 
So gold does not grow on trees, but it does spew from the ground. #inflationary! /SoundMoneyCritic
 
pmbug said:
I missed this on Friday:



They raised the margin requirements for the second time in (roughly) two weeks.
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Thanks! Yeah, that's how the game is played. Same as it ever-was.
 
In the end, all they are doing is squeezing leverage out of the market. The buyers wanting physical are just going to get it at a better price.
 
...
Friday, The U.S. Department of Commerce said its core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased 0.3% last month. The data rose in line with economists’ expectations.

However, in the last 12 months, consumer price pressure rose slightly more than expected to 2.8% in March, unchanged from February; according to consensus forecasts, economists were looking for price pressure to increase at a somewhat slower pace of 2.7%. Inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

The report said headline inflation rose 0.3% last month, in line with expectations. However, continuing the trend, annual headline inflation was slightly hotter than expected, rising 2.7%, versus expectations for a 2.6% increase.
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The Fed won't be able to justify cutting rates with this data.
 
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The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed retail investors increasingly losing faith in the precious metal, while analysts and institutional players see this week’s consolidation as a harbinger of further gains.
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Next week’s economic news highlights are the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday and the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, but markets will also pay attention to Tuesday’s U.S. Consumer Confidence report, Wednesday’s ADP nonfarm employment, ISM manufacturing PMI, and JOLTS job openings, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the Friday release of ISM Services PMI.
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More:


I'm not sure how much the data and Fed decision making is influencing the action for gold and silver any more. Seems to me we've had some consolidation since the CME hiked margin requirements ~13% (gold) and ~22% (silver) this month. As long as China and India keep buying, I can't see the price dropping too much from here (but I've been wrong before, so DYODD).
 
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