The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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Record high gold price over the weekend, but average attendance again at our local coin show. Dealers raised their prices though probably anticipating PMs going up.
 
The most important things to watch in my mind are the VIX and bond markets. And bonds are getting routed, meaning interest rates are heading up. That's bad news for the old regime.
 
Schizo markets aren't sure what's happening any more.

Bears!


Bulls!


Meanwhile, gold keeps plugging along.
 


I wonder if Pierre-Olivier is related to Jim Cramer...
 
This is a pretty good analysis, I think.

 
Thanks for the links! Good stuff!

I will just posit that a mysterious buyer being true does not refute a commodities super-cycle.

And a commodities super-cycle does not refute there being a mysterious price-insensitive buyer.

IMHO, if cycles exist (and they seem to), they can probably be explained in real time by the actions of individual entities that *cause* them to occur.

Just some thoughts. I certainly see geopolitical events on the horizon to support "mysterious" buyers at this time. Good stuff.
 
Mysterious buyer theory does make the cost of popcorn go higher.
 
People, average Joe on the street types... are waking up to reality...?

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is hardly an average Joe on the street - he's very well connected and largely seen as a mouthpiece for the BoE and friends, but yeah, it's a bit surprising to see these topics covered in a MSM publication.
 
Israel-Iran escalating is bad news for global economy. I think Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas is a genius on par with Cramer.
 
Markets seem to have reverted all the kneejerk reaction to the Isael attacking Iran news last night. I suppose things will trade normally until the next escalation.
 
We're gonna be rich! RICH! I tell ya... I'll be toothless, but RICH!!

War fears keeping gold in high consolidation around $2400​

Within six weeks after the major breakout above $2100, gold has gone through $2300 and quickly moved over $2400, suggesting that $2500 is within sight. After soaring to nearly $2450 last Friday, Gold Futures made a strong $75 reversal but not a key reversal, as gold prices did not take out the low of the previous day.

Gold appears set to close a fourth consecutive week above its upper weekly Bollinger Band, an algorithm designed to keep price action between an upper and lower level 95% of the time. The gold price is now consolidating inside of a symmetrical triangle with resistance on last Friday's high at $2450, and support on the following Comex session low at $2340.
 
So gold does not grow on trees, but it does spew from the ground. #inflationary! /SoundMoneyCritic
 
I missed this on Friday:


They raised the margin requirements for the second time in (roughly) two weeks.
Thanks! Yeah, that's how the game is played. Same as it ever-was.
 
In the end, all they are doing is squeezing leverage out of the market. The buyers wanting physical are just going to get it at a better price.
 


The Fed won't be able to justify cutting rates with this data.
 

More:


I'm not sure how much the data and Fed decision making is influencing the action for gold and silver any more. Seems to me we've had some consolidation since the CME hiked margin requirements ~13% (gold) and ~22% (silver) this month. As long as China and India keep buying, I can't see the price dropping too much from here (but I've been wrong before, so DYODD).
 
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