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Is this inflationary...?

BRICS: China Dumps The Largest US Treasuries in History​

BRICS member China dumped a record number of US treasuries and agency debt bonds worth a staggering $53.3 billion. Historically, this is the largest sell-off initiated by China ever recorded and occurred during the first quarter of 2024. The sell-off data comes at a time when the US dollar fell to its one-month low at 104.20.
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watcher.guru

BRICS: China Dumps The Largest US Treasuries in History

BRICS member China dumped $53.3 billion worth of US treasuries and agency debt bonds during the first quarter of 2024.
watcher.guru watcher.guru
 
Changes to how the Federal Reserve manages one of world’s most crucial piles of assets pose “underappreciated” risks to financial markets, BlackRock warned in a Friday client note.

The Fed in early May said it plans to switch up how quickly it will look to shrink its $7.3 trillion balance sheet beginning June 1, a move that was “barely a side note” in financial markets, according to Tom Becker, portfolio manager at BlackRock’s Global Tactical Asset Allocation team.

But it was not a minor development in the eyes of BlackRock BLK, +0.56%, which held a record $10.5 trillion in assets in the first quarter, further entrenching it as the world’s largest asset manager.

The Fed said its “quantitative-tightening” program will soon allow only up to $25 billion of maturing Treasury securities to roll off its balance sheet each month, instead of the previous $60 billion cap.

Any proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) above the $35 billion monthly cap for those assets also would be reinvested into Treasurys.

Yet it’s the makeup of the Fed’s balance sheet and not the “size that matters,” according to Becker. “The composition of the balance sheet today is likely suppressing 10-year [Treasury] BX:TMUBMUSD10Y yields by over 2% and potentially by as much as 4%,” he wrote. The benchmark 10-year rate was near 4.42% on Friday, down from a recent high of 4.7%.

If the “economy continues to expand strong and inflation remains sticky, we see a growing chance that future tightening discussions could involve altering the composition of balance-sheet holdings,” Becker added.
...
“Transitioning to a shorter-duration balance sheet would likely drive up long-dated government-bond yields and be negative” for the U.S. dollar DXY, Becker wrote, ...
...
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If China keeps selling, the Fed might be forced to abandon QT altogether to maintain the Treasury market.
 
Does 53b tbill selling really matter considering the volume of tbills and debt being generated.....
 
Ttazzman said:
Does 53b tbill selling really matter considering the volume of tbills and debt being generated.....
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According to this:

Upcoming Auctions — TreasuryDirect

www.treasurydirect.gov www.treasurydirect.gov

Treasury Dept appears to sell in tranches of ~$70B per denomination period. So $53B over a 3 month span isn't that big comparatively. However, if you consider the already limited pool of participants currently buying, it definitely isn't helping the auctions for new issuance.
 
I keep a eye on this guy (charts guy) he as been reliable for many years.......i find it interesting that this late week jump up was in direct conflict with his short term predictions, he's been good to forecast interim tops but this time he missed big

gold

silver

EDIT::::LOL.......i missed it was over a month old.....
 
COT report from May 14 shows commercials now short 122,954 contracts or over 614 million ounces.
 
Voodoo said:
So assuming they hung in there through Friday they lost almost $1.2 Billion dollars on Friday alone. thats gotta sting a bit ehh?
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I can't even imagine losing 1.2 billion. Gotta be JPM with trillions that can handle a loss like that.
 
pmbug said:
Silver is $32.31 right now ... Will it hit $33 before the market even opens in the morning?
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i figure about 10am cst tomorrow after all the traders have had their coffee we will find out how much depth is in this move or if its just a smoke puff in the wind...........i suspect shorters and profit takers are revvin their engines ......a few large margin calls might help us .....certainly going to be a interesting next few days ......they had all weekend to talk to their banker buddies and formulate a plan LOL
 
I imagine the desk jockeys want to play the game, but how many of them are seeing the big picture (doing real risk analysis)? The current price action is not being driven by the West's futures markets any more. There is real and significant physical demand from China and India that is driving the bus now. LBMA+COMEX vaults are draining (with ~2 years left of available supply). Shorting now will only lead to a massive short squeeze later.
 
pmbug said:
I imagine the desk jockeys want to play the game, but how many of them are seeing the big picture (doing real risk analysis)? The current price action is not being driven by the West's futures markets any more. There is real and significant physical demand from China and India that is driving the bus now. LBMA+COMEX vaults are draining (with ~2 years left of available supply). Shorting now will only lead to a massive short squeeze later.
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I thought LBMA could cover a 4 year deficit? I also imagine that a lot of miners who have reserves that aren't profitable at 20 an ounce to mine suddenly can make lower grades work with higher prices. That may help increase production but I'll admit I am no mining analyst, so I don't know that for a fact.
 
Cigarlover said:
I thought LBMA could cover a 4 year deficit? I also imagine that a lot of miners who have reserves that aren't profitable at 20 an ounce to mine suddenly can make lower grades work with higher prices. That may help increase production but I'll admit I am no mining analyst, so I don't know that for a fact.
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LBMA is draining faster than most anyone would have expected or predicted a few years ago. I have been monitoring their vault numbers over here:

www.pmbug.com

Silver Demand Drivers

Texas saw that $350 Million solar field destroyed by hail. That was approx, lets say 130 to 150 mg / cell. Of course they don't define what each cell is but we'll have to assume. They do say that current cell output is ~4.7 Watts. So we can use that number...
www.pmbug.com www.pmbug.com

Silver is in a structural deficit where mining production + scrap recycling is less than industrial demand (not even counting investment demand). We are in the fourth year of this deficit and the deficit is growing as industrial demand has grown. The structural deficit is draining the LBMA + COMEX of their vaulted stocks. The run rate for the remaining vaulted stock appears to be somewhere between 2-10 years depending upon what numbers you look at and what assumptions you make about mining production (fairly fixed - ramping up production takes years), industrial demand (growing but at what rate? is it sensitive to a recession?) and investment demand (ETFs hold a lot of vaulted metal too - will folks sell or buy?).

... the market is headed for a fourth year in deficit, with this year’s shortage seen as the second biggest on record.

That’s led industrial users — which typically rely on miners for supply — to seek ounces by draining the world’s major inventories, according to Silver Bullion’s Gregersen. Stockpiles tracked by the London Bullion Market Association fell to the second-lowest level on record in April, while the volumes at exchanges in New York and Shanghai are near seasonal lows.

Over the next two years, the LBMA stockpiles may be depleted given the current pace of demand, according to TD Securities. ...
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finance.yahoo.com

Hot Commodity Silver Outpaces Gold as Buying Gains Momentum

(Bloomberg) -- Gold’s record-setting rally may have captured the headlines this year, but it’s silver that’s running harder and faster as the less glamorous metal benefits from robust financial and industrial demand.Most Read from BloombergChina Attempts to End Property Crisis With Broad Rescue...
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com
 
BTW, if LBMA + COMEX vaults do drain to zero and the structural deficit remains, silver supply will be 100% dependent upon new mining supply (and scrap recycling which is minimal). Last I heard, new mining supply for silver is 7:1 for gold mining. Should the economics hold out, a GSR of ~7 would imply a silver price at ~$345/toz given gold currently at ~$2,420/toz. I don't expect silver to get there immediately or in a straight line, but that's a potential ceiling to watch over the next few years should the LBMA+COMEX vaults get drained.
 
pmbug said:
BTW, if LBMA + COMEX vaults do drain to zero and the structural deficit remains, silver supply will be 100% dependent upon new mining supply (and scrap recycling which is minimal). Last I heard, new mining supply for silver is 7:1 for gold mining. Should the economics hold out, a GSR of ~7 would imply a silver price at ~$345/toz given gold currently at ~$2,420/toz. I don't expect silver to get there immediately or in a straight line, but that's a potential ceiling to watch over the next few years should the LBMA+COMEX vaults get drained.
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Last I looked LBMA had like 850 million ounces on hand and was getting drained by 200 million a year. However I also dont follow it that closely so that's where my numbers are coming from and that is several months old for sure.

Solar panels and EV's are really sucking the silver market dry. At some point someone with common sense is going to realize that 1) we can build nuke plants for 6-9 billion
and 2) we are spending 90+ billion on solar panels that have a fraction of the output of nuclear.
and finally 3) CO2 was never a problem and this fantasy about manmade climate change was all a money grab by government and their cronies.

We desperately need some common sense from our politicians. Not likely to happen anytime soon though.
 
Cigarlover said:
Last I looked LBMA had like 850 million ounces on hand ...
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From the Demand Drivers thread:
LBMA - As at end April 2024, ... There were also 25,470 tonnes of silver ... SLV report for 9 May claims 320.8 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of 498.1 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by ETFs. ...
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~820mtoz total in LBMA. ~320mtoz belongs to SLV though and is not available for China/India.
 
to the above conversation this youtube vid inserts some opinions on the discussion that are pertinate....its a 17min live blog from a person like us today that plays well at 1.5 to 2 times speed

 
Doesn't appear that Maxwell's Silver Hammer did any damage.... hmmmm, no 'ammo' left??
 
Goldhedge said:
Doesn't appear that Maxwell's Silver Hammer did any damage.... hmmmm, no 'ammo' left??
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as of the last hr profit takers are working on the price.......soon to see if the shorters jump on the bandwagon LOL.......we shall see
 
Geez, now I’m seeing calls for $50+ silver this year, 90 by next year. This just went from “is silver in a bull market?” To “to the moon” instantly. 🤦‍♂️
I guess in the silver market, it’s one or the other 🤷‍♂️

And why isn’t lancers the one to point this out instead of me?
 
Rumor has it the PTB are allowing gold to rise so they can say... "See? The economy is improving! Now we can lower rates!"

Screenshot 2024-05-20 at 8.30.26 PM.png
 
jelly said:
Geez, now I’m seeing calls for $50+ silver this year, 90 by next year. This just went from “is silver in a bull market?” To “to the moon” instantly. 🤦‍♂️
I guess in the silver market, it’s one or the other 🤷‍♂️

And why isn’t lancers the one to point this out instead of me?
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i would say when hasnt there been silver to the moon bells chiming out there
 
jelly said:
Geez, now I’m seeing calls for $50+ silver this year, 90 by next year. This just went from “is silver in a bull market?” To “to the moon” instantly. 🤦‍♂️
I guess in the silver market, it’s one or the other 🤷‍♂️

And why isn’t lancers the one to point this out instead of me?
Click to expand...

Just imagine how things break. Take a concrete support or beam. It sits there under load for a long time no problems. Small cracks will be forming but not much concern. Increase the load continuously and over time things get more serious. Nothing looks any different and the average person just keeps on walking on top of it. Then you get some real warning signs, sounds, growing cracks whatever. Still most people just whistle right on by cause its always been fine. And at some point the things just fails and falls apart nearly instantly.
 

Rafi Farber, Andy Schectman: The Move Through $30 Silver, And What Comes Next​

For years, silver investors waited for the price to break the $30 level, which had often been viewed as a resistance level.
That finally happened on Friday, and the price has since shot past the $32.50 level, and continued to experience volatility in the days since.
So in today's show we talk with long time silver advocates Rafi Farber and Andy Schectman about the reasons that have driven the silver price here, and what to expect in the months ahead.
38
 
The Fed released minutes showing they are concerned about inflation - no rate cuts likely for 2024.
 
End of May selloff as well. See in may and all that. See if 30 holds. If not then 26 is next support. People believe all kinds of stuff and that drives the market but as we have mentioned here before. The real moves in the metals will be when the fed cuts rates. Stock market will drop and maybe take metals down a bit with them but then metals will come screaming back up. For now stocks will continue while we have an inflationary period.
Government will continue to try and spend their way out of inflation so I don't see this ending anytime soon. We either have morons as politicians that have no clue what they are doing or we have geniuses running the show that are intentionally destroying everything. Either way, it doesn't bode well for us little peeps.
ZSL looks like it reversed today so there's the insurance against lower silver prices.
Energy also looks like it reversed. Was the safe haven lately when everyone was expecting rate cuts and a recession.

I still think recession is coming based on consumers being tapped out and record debt levels by them but they also have higher wages so that offsets some of that as well.

The only thing the Gov and Wall Street care about is higher stock prices so we won't have any real solutions coming from that arena.
 
jelly said:
Geez, now I’m seeing calls for $50+ silver this year, 90 by next year. This just went from “is silver in a bull market?” To “to the moon” instantly. 🤦‍♂️
I guess in the silver market, it’s one or the other 🤷‍♂️

And why isn’t lancers the one to point this out instead of me?
Click to expand...
Damn straight!
The slacker.
 
This Is Serious 🚨 BRICS Nations Have Officially Set A Date To Ditch The US Dollar. They’re Launching Their New Currency & Encouraging Other Nations To Leave The US Dollar System

“Breaking news that we just learned about this weekend from Russia and China. We now know, without a shadow of a doubt, that the BRICS nations are officially ending their ties to the United States dollar as a reserve currency.

According to multiple sources close to the BRICS planners, it will officially happen in October at their summit meeting, where they will make that declaration. But according to sources close to BRICS, they will also announce their new currency at the time.

And according to the news this weekend, Bricks will quote, sway other countries to ditch the US dollar by uplifting local currencies for trade as well as developing a new currency system that would rival the US dollar.”

 
Where's the announcement by the brick nations that they have officially set a date?
All I could find is this. https://investingnews.com/brics-currency/

So they want to replace the dollar with a cbdc. Thats a good way to get them out of the swift system but then what? It's still just a worthless currency. Are they going to demand every poor person in the world has to buy a cell phone or some other electronic gadget in order to buy or sell anything? How long will it take hackers to start stealing everyones currency electronically? Then what? Governments just going to create currency out of thin air to backstop all the losses? What about us country folk? Cell phones don't work out where I live. Even if they did not everyone can afford a phone and the service required to run them. All that going to be free now?
To many unanswered questions and there's no way our politicians have thought this through. Outside of the cities, the pushback on this will be huge.
 
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