"Soon" = within a month or two I think.
The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat
- Thread starter TheRealZed
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Like they did before airlines hit towers...?
Cigarlover
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Viking
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When life hands you lemons SQUEEZE 'em and make lemonade!
Cigarlover
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How do you crash this market? You either need a 9/11 event or a banking crisis. Since the fed has shown it will backstop any bank issue there probably won't be a banking crisis.
Doesn't blackrock own like 70% of everything? That leaves very little for regular investors to grab. Every month we also have billions in 401k money that needs to get deployed. Most 401k's don't have money market options so the money has to go into either stocks or bonds. So the market is basically backstopped by 401k investors.
A dollar crisis is possible if a replacement for the US dollar being the reserve currency can be found. right now it can't. China is really the only candidate and they aren't ready for prime time yet. At best the brics countries will have an alternative to the swift system which will negate any embargo the US wants to impose but it won't be a replacement for the reserve status of the dollar. Important to keep in mind that many of these nations have outstanding loans and those loans are payable with dollars so they need the dollars.
The US debt will continue to grow regardless of who gets elected. Inflation will continue and stocks will go higher because of it. Gold as well and it may even drag silver up for a ride. Taxes will have to go up as well.
What am I missing?
Doesn't blackrock own like 70% of everything? That leaves very little for regular investors to grab. Every month we also have billions in 401k money that needs to get deployed. Most 401k's don't have money market options so the money has to go into either stocks or bonds. So the market is basically backstopped by 401k investors.
A dollar crisis is possible if a replacement for the US dollar being the reserve currency can be found. right now it can't. China is really the only candidate and they aren't ready for prime time yet. At best the brics countries will have an alternative to the swift system which will negate any embargo the US wants to impose but it won't be a replacement for the reserve status of the dollar. Important to keep in mind that many of these nations have outstanding loans and those loans are payable with dollars so they need the dollars.
The US debt will continue to grow regardless of who gets elected. Inflation will continue and stocks will go higher because of it. Gold as well and it may even drag silver up for a ride. Taxes will have to go up as well.
What am I missing?
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Lower the interest rates?
Cigarlover
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Thats usually signaled a recession in the past and did cause markets to pull back. The fed has already said cut is coming this month and the markets have basically blown it off.
This economy needs a recession. A very prolonged recession to get rid of the excesses in everything. I just dont see the government allowing that to happen. Trump or Kamala will print money and spend like crazy to keep things going. The next 6-12 month will be interesting but I wouldn't start shorting just yet.
Viking
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I just made another purchase. Should be back to normal on Monday..
Cigarlover
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I guess we will find out if a rate cut can derail this market finally. If so then that could be the springboard for the next push higher in the metals. Not holding my breath though. Also read on zero hedge that someone with very deep pockets keeps stepping up and buying this market on every pullback. Those are pretty large bets to make when just about everyone knows rate cuts are supposed to be when the market turns downward. Although I have seen evidence that this usually occurs within 6 months of the rate cuts or when the yield curve uninverts.
I strongly believe that is the Fed itself (or via proxy) trying to keep their system afloat.
Their obvious problem is that cannot Inflate Stocks without also giving reason to Inflate Gold & Silver.
Cigarlover
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I smell something odd cooking... BTW the Managed Money is the Dumb money in the market. The ones simply looking at the moving averages that the bankers see as the easy targets (spill the market under the MA and get them to puke).
Viking
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China announced stimulus measures:
www.theguardian.com
China unleashes boldest stimulus in years to boost ailing economy
People’s Bank of China announces support measures including a cut in interest rates but some experts fear they may not be enough
Almost all 401k plans have a money market option. It is rare to find one that doesn't.
Hmmmm...
wealthdfm.com
Gold hits 25th new UK record high of 2024 so far – BullionVault - Wealth DFM
Gold priced in the Pound peaked Wednesday morning above £1990 per Troy ounce, setting its 25th new all-time high of 2024 to date for UK investors and savers
wealthdfm.com
Somehow I think NVDA is just a GIANT DS scam. That SMCI looks like a good place to start.
Cigarlover
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I bought some wolf speed last week. WOLF
Also a chip maker but different chips than the AI space. Really energy efficient chips for the EV market. 2 billion in cash and a lot of debt from revamping the manufacturing. Stocks been beaten down pretty good and revenues are projected to double to 1.6 billion by 2026.
I bought last week when I saw it pop. In at 9.03 then pulled way back into the high 7's. This is just a starter position as I accumulate over the next year or so. Huge pop today to well over 9. Also 30% shorts so I think if this gains momentum the short squeeze will be interesting if it occurs.
Unlike these high flyers, their books seem to be in order and plenty of cash on hand to service the debt.
Also a chip maker but different chips than the AI space. Really energy efficient chips for the EV market. 2 billion in cash and a lot of debt from revamping the manufacturing. Stocks been beaten down pretty good and revenues are projected to double to 1.6 billion by 2026.
I bought last week when I saw it pop. In at 9.03 then pulled way back into the high 7's. This is just a starter position as I accumulate over the next year or so. Huge pop today to well over 9. Also 30% shorts so I think if this gains momentum the short squeeze will be interesting if it occurs.
Unlike these high flyers, their books seem to be in order and plenty of cash on hand to service the debt.