The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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BTC less volatile that the SPX at the moment. Low vol leads to high vol... not sure about the direction here, looks like lower to me. 10-12K the ultimate BTC low here? That would be capitulation.

 
I'm posting the follow up video to the guy that was looking at the lunar charts and crash analogs. I have not listened to much of it yet. It was recorded last night Sun the 16th. He thinks there will be no pivot and going Volker.

 
This is the main problem that the bears have, everybody is on one side of the boat and everybody knows it's bad.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
 

Last time I checked everyone running to one side of a boat is a good way to sink the thing. The only real question is what sets this F*$& Off and When. It was not a big Delta squeeze today in the US because it was flat all day. Just some overnight shenanigans and the Brit Coin bounce.

I could see it happening now or extending into Jan.
 
Zed said:
Holy..... @#$&@?


Say it ain't gonna happen.
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Hmm... you'd have to walk me through that a bit. Yikes though mortgage rates have risen here from the same base but the UK outdid us but 1-2%. I do know that fixed rate mortgages are Much rarer there than in the US. Does anyone know if there is a Zillow for the UK?
 
The US is one of few places you can fix money for 30 years. We can't, 5 year's max at a cost. Everywhere else in the world rate hikes flow through to the mortgage market at a much faster rate. It's a part of the exorbitant privilege of being the world's reserve currency. Nobody gets fixed mortgage rates like you guys do.
 
Voodoo said:
Yeah, but that's been a long time coming and hard to trade. Unless you want to play the Yuan peg...

Meanwhile the Yen looks like it is about to waterfall collapse.

View attachment 1211
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It doesn't have to be a trade to get a mention here. There is still a large part of the world that believe the bullshit China is putting out. This last lot of manoeuvres appears to point out that it's even worse than thought. These incessant covid lockdowns seem to be a scapegoat upon which CCP can blame economic contraction. They fear social unrest because of economic contraction and given that the CCP are the only game in town they need a scapegoat desperately. War, disease, the evil West, or a combination of all!
 
pmbug said:
They waited until now to issue that alert? Impressive. They are either really nonresponsive to threats or really don't care if their expats face dangers/death.
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Probably a bit of theater aimed at the opposition and not a real heart felt call.
 
For some reason posting this without comment is violating rules around here and it got deleted...

Anywhoo... if I post it, I've watched it and consider it worth watching, i.e there is a lesson of some sort in there. I'm not going to summarize them... watch it or don't. These guys make some really good points about the way this will likely play out and the regulatory changes to look out for and how they impact the market.

If you are not aware of it the concept of financial repression is important to understand.


Toward the 30min mark if you want a gold happy ending.
 
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Brent is way more bullish USD than I am... I can't imagine this result, it would be a wasteland.

 
This just seems so stupid, why make yourself this vulnerable to avoid a little short term pain.


You have the oil stash for a good reason.
 
I can't say that I am seeing a squeeze yet in the OBV. Still looks like that 3244 is level is in play. Lots of fuel for a squeeze, it could come out of nowhere here but so far... nah.

 
More virus BS, at least this is better news.

In a statement Monday afternoon, BU called the reporting, which was picked up by other outlets, including Fox News, “false and inaccurate,” and said, “this research made the virus replicate less dangerous.”
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NEIDL Researchers Refute UK Article about COVID Strain

Boston University is refuting a series of misleading claims about research at the University’s National Emerging Infectious Diseases Laboratories (NEIDL). BU called the reporting “false and inaccurate,” and said, “this research made the virus replicate less dangerous.”
www.bu.edu

 
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