The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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Got the 75 basis point raise and some dovish language. We are heading into hyper-inflation. Hurray.
I listened to Powell, and I didn’t hear dovish, actually the opposite. So I bought SPXS and the market is dumping. I’m up 4.5 % on the trade but I sold before the close. This market has a way of jerking you out of a winning position overnight.
 

Certainly the first move is usually wrong. The up move was because they added a paragraph about a "lag effect" suggesting they were going to slow. But he comes out and talks 30 mins after they release that statement and he sounded more hawkish not offering a when to stop hiking. It warms my heart to see Commie stocks GOOG, AMZN, and META just get wrecked. I'd hold some of that trade to tomorrow or Monday.


 
Congratulations! *NICE TRADE!!*
 
The market was discounting rates @ middle 4's.

Powell: Ultimate rate level higher than previously expected.

= Market surprise that was not being discounted.

Now we look for the right stock floor at the next market aggregate guess for rates ---> 5.5% ?
 
I bought qqq puts. Was very nice insurance for the rest of my account. I also closed out before end of day.
 
If you didn't know... I had a Scottrade account... new email that came today

From Scottrade to

Your move from TD Ameritrade to Schwab.​

Dear TD Ameritrade clients,​
When Charles Schwab acquired TD Ameritrade in 2019, our aim was to create something special for clients of both firms—best-in-class strength and stability, a wider array of products and services available, industry-leading low costs, and a larger team of professionals with a shared passion for helping clients achieve their goals.​

The big fish eating the little fish.... or hiding the collapse?
 

Etrade was bought by.... Morgan Stanley about the same time. I think the Hood created problems because they all started to go commission free about that time with the payment for order flows.
 
I'm a smooth-brain Ape myself. Diamond hands. In other words anytime is a good time to buy. There is no other option.
Thought about it while showering. I do kind of like it at this price but… diesel is the biggest input. The diesel market needs to stabilize. I need to see more than a twenty day supply before I pull the trigger.
 
Down to 6962 contracts worth of silver in registered. OI sits @ ~105K for December and we have exceeded 6962 at least twice in the last year.
 
Christmas gift giving?

I hear that within the 'financial class' private buying of precious metals is significantly up. I can't swear that is true but the data is supposed to come from a London dealers book.

I'm noticing that a number of the people I listen too outside the 'bug world' are taking note of gold.

I dunno... but December looks like a decision point.

Looking a lot like late 2018 on the COT front.

 
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