The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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I'm watching the short sellers in my gold tribe. They have been on the winning side until recent, the last spike in shorting resulted in them having their heads handed to them. Thier seems to have been a shift. I'm a bit concerned about a general risk off move into early 23 catching metals and miners but still thier seems to have been a shift.
 
jelly said:
yup. I'll say it again, I think this rally still has legs to it. Possibly more than people think. It's very strong.
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Yeah... waiting to clear the first real hurdle. Might be soon if the SPX turns here.
 
HUI Monthly - The 280's look to be the all clear zone. Over that and the market should become more committed.

 
I'm on my MacAir and I couldn't see the tickers either w/o blowing up the screen... an extra step.
 
Sounds like the margin requirements on gold are being raised Monday. Comex up to their usual tricks
 
Margin steps are basically math. Volatility, price etc all gets shoved in a formula that estimates a safe margin to protect the broker. It's pretty normal stuff across all markets.
 
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Gold prices drop solidly below $1,800 as ISM services PMI rise to 56.5 in November

(Kitco News) - The gold market is losing ground, pushing further below $1,800 an ounce as the U.S. service sector sees stronger-than-expected activity in November, according to the from Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
www.kitco.com

More inflationary justification fuel for the Fed to continue hammering interest rates.
 

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com

Markets finally realizing Powell had warned about more pain on the horizon, just delivered at a slower pace.
 

Gold, silver and heavily shorted stocks all rallying... ALL those things would destroy their system so they have to play that card. The scary thing for them is it took so little to near the breaking point. Exciting for us.
 
SPX Daily - Pushing on the mid term up trend. One more bad day and the turn is looking set.

 
Gold Daily - Reaction was right on time, now we are near the first support that could hold. Holding here is bullish but we need a new high in shortish order.

 
BTC Daily - It just looks like it's losing air. Lots of bearish talk, I'm looking for a classic capitulation.

 
US10Y - Yield. Looking like it is trying to put in a mid term bottom here. This down swing could be close to done.

 
Crude Daily - Looks like a bottoming process is underway. -73 breaks it down, +93 breaks it out. We could range here well into late next year.

 
Kieth and the crew have gone full vigilante these days. Taking shots @ a major chunk of the industry.

 
Something I've noticed in the past couple years is that gold/silver often have a one-day sell off that scares everyone out of the market, followed by 2-3 day slow crawl higher, finishing with a blast off higher. It's like the basic nature of trading in the metals has changed over the past couple years. Corrections are often now massive one-day events instead of taking place over several days. Algorithms? Whatever it is, I don't remember seeing trading like this in the past.
 
December Delivery

Gold 12,415 with 6,976 OI left on the table. ---> December looking like a SMALL delivery month!
Silver 2,915 with 2,188 OI left on the table ---> December looking like a MODERATE delivery month!


WOW... this is a change in the weather. December was the BIG month.


I expected more.
 
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What significance do you see in this? Also, what do you make of the recent contraction in OI for both silbur and gold?
 
savvydon said:
What significance do you see in this? Also, what do you make of the recent contraction in OI for both silbur and gold?
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Who knows, for all we know the metal could just be going from one side of the warehouse to the other. In and out flows would be the ticket but I don't think we can get that data.
 
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It's been a mixed bag in Weekend Trend Trader system lately. But here's one that is working out. VVNT (Vivent Smart Home) is up 61% since purchased. Currently up on news it is being acquired.

[This is the first of these that have happened while I was holding. At this point the price will probably not move around a lot for a while as everyone knows the purchase price. So the question is, how do I get my sell signal due to hitting my trailing stop loss signals? I have no idea.]

[Actually I never buy stock signals that occurred because an acquisition was announced, because the price just sits there as the legal stuff happens. That is the one fundamental that I take into account when making a purchase.]


 
SPX Daily - Short term trend broken, now we test support. Down into the new year? New lows? Some think that gold will go with it!

 
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