The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

Zed, am I seeing things, or is the Aussie Silver showing a nice bull flag? Same with Euro.
Only thing I don't like is it broke below the 50-DMA, so technically bearish

 
Top OI positions in April Gold...



Notice how the strikes are now way more attainable in the big OI strikes. Not so long ago we had crazy way out of the money positions that made little sense on the surface of it. Real lottery ticket stuff. Insurance positions was my name for them... they are all gone now. Different market?
 
Last edited:
jelly said:
Zed, am I seeing things, or is the Aussie Silver showing a nice bull flag? Same with Euro.
Only thing I don't like is it broke below the 50-DMA, so technically bearish

View attachment 6351
Click to expand...

LOL, YES! I was looking at that 10 minutes ago and I thought I better not post it lest I be tarred Zed the nutty silver bull AGAIN.

It's gone sideways in USD and corrected in AUD on the AUD rally. AUD looks like it might have 1.5c left to the upside. Could be all over with next weeks FOMC meet.
 
Thats what I was thinking as well but then I went to kitco and they show a high of 1949 as well.
 
My hourly looks similar except for that 6 pm gap up. Any glitch would have fixed itself by now. Can I buy gold on your chart and sell it on mine?
LOL
 
Cigarlover said:
Might have figured it out. For some reason my system switched to the April futures contract. View attachment 6360
Click to expand...
April became the near active month. My chart is the 'continuous' contract, so rolls to the next month on a continuous basis. There is always some difference between the next month and the active month. Unless of course the next month is the active month.
 
WTF was that today NVidia? Intel has horrific results and it decides to rip $20-22 this week. Clearly broke that SPY weekly descending highs, but will this be a breakout or a fakeout?
 
I was mistaken. I'll be buying APLD - Applied Digital Corporation.

It beat out EHTH for having an even higher Position Score.

Position Score is an indicator of how volatile has the stock been in the last 200 days compared to it's current price. It takes ATR and converts it into a percentage of current price. Lower priced stocks benefit from this calculation and also the most volatile. We're trying to buy movers, baby.

When we have the list of stocks we sort them by Position Score and start buying from the top of the list.



[APLD was up 33.33% for the week.]

 

Bulls Beware – this rally is about liquidity, not fundamentals​

Greg Canavan explains how liquidity flows are driving equity markets higher to start the year, and why they may not last

With the market firing on all cylinders to start the year, it’s important to ask why.

Has the fundamental picture improved? Or is something else going on?

The obvious answer is that the market is calling the Fed’s bluff on interest rates. It’s pricing in easier than expected monetary policy this year. That’s leading to a noticeable easing in financial market conditions now.

Along with the China reopening story, the market loves this.

But the market and the economy are hardly ever in synch. The market moves ahead of the economy. And the market is also influenced by short-term liquidity flows.

And it’s this topic of market liquidity that we need to look at because it explains the recent movements in the S&P 500 nicely and will give us some clues about what comes next.

Let’s take a look…

Bulls beware – this rally is about liquidity, not fundamentals

Greg Canavan explains how liquidity flows are driving equity markets higher to start the year, and why they may not last
www.livewiremarkets.com
 
Here is a longer term chart of Applied Digital Corporation who recently changed their name from Applied Blockchain.

So they seem to be crypto something-something. So this could go to zero or $30 - $100 from here.

[The wild west, I guess. Good times.]

 
Zed said:
SPX Daily - Proper trend break, just, but the diverging rate of change is flashing a warning. Correction due? Golden cross or golden retreat? Roll right up folks and place your bets!

View attachment 6344
Click to expand...

Yeah, rookie mistake on that chart. I drew the line on a log chart and switch back to a standard scale. Here is todays SPX chart with a log scale.



Looks like a pull back from trend. Now lets see how we go next week going into the FOMC, my bet is cautious up until the meeting. Then we break hard based on the outcome. I suspect dovish is priced in so hawkish will devastate.
 

It's all about that go juice!
 
Goldhedge said:
Might be sooner than later....

Click to expand...
Backed by means being able to exchange for the backing. Is that really going to happen?
So China says, here is our currency backed by gold. Saudis Arabia says thank you, here's your oil and oh by the way, I'd like to exchange this currency for your gold.
China doesn't let gold leave the country. Is this going to be a new policy? Will they let the gold flow out of the country? How will they handle trade with Europe and the west when they say no we aren't backing our currency with gold or anything else?

Certainly we can split the world into 2 groups, the east and the west and neither trade with one another. Probably not going to happen. The reason a gold backing doesn't work is because whoever is the most productive with the least amount of socialism ends up with all the gold eventually.

Seems like th US, Canada and Europe would need to ramp up production in order to have exports to send to the east. The east would then accept worthless paper currency to a certain point. Only enough to purchase the exports from the west that are needed in the east. The east could also buy up farmland and real estate in the west but they certainly won't want to hoard a surplus of worthless currency.
The next 5 years will definitely be interesting.
 
How much of this bad news has already been priced in though? Nasdaq was down pretty Big last year. About 6000 points. They were pricing in a slowdown last year. Now they are looking forward to the end of this year and pricing in a rebound after this recession is over. Couple more rate hikes are surely priced in.
The Nasdaq weekly looks like it just broke above the downtrend that was in place all of last year. I don't expect this to go straight up and would like to see some follow through this week. A pullback to the breakout level would test the breakout and as long as that level holds we should go up. At least until something unexpected happens.
 
Cigarlover said:
How much of this bad news has already been priced in though?
Click to expand...

I don't think that much actually is, I think given earnings estimates etc analysts are being way to positive. We will see but I'd say that Wall Street is just betting on "go juice" arriving soon. It hangs on the Fed, how tough are they really going to be... we C this week.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more…