The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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10 Year Yield Daily - on the cusp of confirming that double bottom. I'd say that a higher high would be enough here.

 
savvydon said:
Don't know if this is supposed to be Elliot wave, and I'm no expert anyway, but that 'wave 5 truncation' looks a little funky to me.
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Agreed, I don't think a Wave 5 can end at the same place as a Wave 3. That would invalidate it as there was no actual upside. But that's the biggest problem with EW theory, there are far too many exceptions and extensions or whatnot.
 
I also disagree with the Elliot wave applied to that chart. It’s not even labelled right however it does comply with a number of the EW rules.
All things being equal, I feel like gold is going to put in a double bottom. If the EW completes a retracement ABC using Fibonacci ratios, there’s not going to be any physical left anywhere. Double bottom however, will confirm support around $1620.
 
Anyway that 2070 double top is ugly. Once we clear those tops and hold above I guess you can be more certain of a major bull move but until that happens we are just in a massive trading range. Silver long term looks even worse. Money to be made trading but $200 Silver stories are just that.

Take a look at the mining indices long term. Funny how the all time highs are well in the rear view mirror even with common stocks pushing ATH levels.
 
Lancers32 said:
A fifth wave does not have to move higher than the third.
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ChatGPT -->

In Elliot Wave Theory, the height of the fifth wave can vary widely and cannot be determined by a fixed value or formula. The height of the fifth wave is determined by a variety of factors, including the degree of trend, the strength of the preceding fourth wave, and the overall market conditions.
In general, the fifth wave is expected to move in the direction of the larger trend and can often extend beyond the end of the third wave. However, it's important to note that Elliot Wave Theory is a subjective form of analysis and can be interpreted differently by different analysts, traders, and investors. Therefore, the exact height of the fifth wave may vary depending on the individual's interpretation of the market conditions and the Elliot Wave structure.
 
Gold Weekly - Looks soft for a couple of weeks @ least, chart suggests that a bottom will take some work here. With some good fortune we will hold one of these fibo levels. Redrawn @ the weekly closes, not that much difference.

 
On the double top, volume has been quite constant across the period. I look for a peak @ both ends and a dip in the middle, indicating lack of buyer interest on better prices and plenty of selling interests @ the resistance level. I'm not seeing that here.

Edit --> Sorry I'm looking at the recent action. Not 2070.

Edit --> That said, I can't really see a volume pattern @ 2070 either. The first peak was sold but the second one not so much and buying has been pretty constant. Maybe a slight fall off across the whole period.
 
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Zed said:
Gold Weekly - Looks soft for a couple of weeks @ least, chart suggests that a bottom will take some work here. With some good fortune we will hold one of these fibo levels. Redrawn @ the weekly closes, not that much difference.

View attachment 6872
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My vote for a bottom is 1700 wish by April or May. Of course I wouldn't place any bets on that prediction but if we do drop that low thats where I will start buying shares again.
 
I am not smart enough to know that the only thing I see is the HUI was considerably higher many years back with Gold lower. There has been stock dilution but not enough for that kind of discrepancy.
 
Lancers32 said:
I am not smart enough to know that the only thing I see is the HUI was considerably higher many years back with Gold lower. There has been stock dilution but not enough for that kind of discrepancy.
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I was basing that guess off of basic math (Revenue = Price * Oz produced) in general. But also the, who was it, NEM maybe that showed their production has been down for 22 years and peaked in like 2006.
 
Northstar chart. Been trading this junk for a long time. It seems that it was a lot easier to make money in this sector 30 years ago. He just posted this chart on Twitter today.


 
ASA got as high as 90 bucks on the secondary rally Gold to $730 September 1980. Gold got as high as $850 in January of that year. ASA actually traded higher on the rally into September than it was in January 1980.
 
Voodoo said:
How could the revenue per share be down so much?
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I dunno so much about up there but we have more junk miners than quality and they tend to issue A LOT of shares to try and stay afloat. I'd say the chart for "blue chip" miners would look quite different.
 
Lancers32 said:
ASA got as high as 90 bucks on the secondary rally Gold to $730 September 1980. Gold got as high as $850 in January of that year. ASA actually traded higher on the rally into September than it was in January 1980.
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This is going to be a generational trade. I will probably be an old man but people will be looking for the next Newmont Mining by then the way everyone now looks for the next Tesla or Amazon.
 
Lancers32 said:
ASA got as high as 90 bucks on the secondary rally Gold to $730 September 1980. Gold got as high as $850 in January of that year. ASA actually traded higher on the rally into September than it was in January 1980.
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Yeah, that was an interesting period, gold stocks waited til the party was over to get high. I think we need to keep in mind that the market is structured quite differently now in terms of retail access and information dispersal. I'm not sure expectating a similar result is wise. I think that 70's spike might have been retail driving while looking in the rear view mirror. I'm not sure what would happen these days.
 

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10 Year Yield Daily - Looking a little range bound here, starting to look like it will roll over again.

 
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