The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

Treasury yields were mixed Friday morning after data showed U.S. consumer sentiment rose in early February although inflation continued to weigh on the minds of many Americans.
...
The spread between 10- and 2-year Treasury notes was slightly less inverted early Friday. The 10-year yield traded 79.7 basis points below the yield on the 2-year note. The spread finished the U.S. session on Thursday at minus 82.5 basis points.

An inversion of that measure of the yield curve, which typically slopes upward, is seen as a reliable recession indicator, though some analysts and economists, including the researcher who first popularized the relationship, have questioned its predictive power in the current environment.
...
Click to expand...

www.marketwatch.com

Treasury yields hold steady after consumer sentiment report

Bond yields are mixed Friday morning after data showed U.S. consumer sentiment rose in early February.
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
 
Zed said:
I think that the market is fractal as Elliot observed BUT seeing that and quantifying it in real time is a movable feast. 20/20 hindsight is great with EW, but real time... never seen anyone be that good at it.
Click to expand...
My thoughts exactly. Had a less experienced friend discover EW and asked me about it. Told him just about what you said, and it gives me a headache besides.
 
Prechter won Timer Digest Trader of the Year 2 years running 84 and 85 and he ended up screwing the pooch bigly. I get cross eyed looking at all the waves.
 
GDX Daily - Sitting on support here, due for some green?

GDX_2023-02-13_16-04-26.png
GDX_2023-02-13_16-04-22.png

Ideally we need a good week to keep the weekly chart looking OK. Too much weakness here and we could see a test of the recent lows, slightly lower even.
 
GDX Daily - Remarkably it's hanging on to support, I expected to see a lower print when I looked @ gold this AM.

GDX_2023-02-14_12-59-41.png
 
Boom goes the dynamite:
...
The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of common goods and services, rose 0.5% in January, which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.4% and 6.2%.
...
Click to expand...

www.cnbc.com

Inflation rose 0.5% in January, more than expected and up 6.4% from a year ago

The consumer price index was expected to increase 0.4% in January from a month ago and 6.2% on an annual basis, according to Dow Jones.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
More dynamite:
Sales at retailers rose far more than expected in January as consumers persevered despite rising inflation pressures.

Advance retail sales for the month increased 3%, compared with expectations for a rise of 1.9%, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. ...
Click to expand...

www.cnbc.com

Retail sales jump 3% in January, smashing expectations despite inflation increase

Retail sales were expected to increase 1.9% in January, according to Dow Jones.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

More signs that inflation isn't being tamed = more Fed pressure on the brake pedal. Couple that news with this:

... the New York Federal Reserve reported better-than-expected activity within its region's manufacturing sector.

Wednesday, the regional central bank said its latest Empire State manufacturing survey's general business conditions index rose to -5.8, up from January's reading of -32.9. The data significantly beat expectations, as economists were looking for a reading of -18.2.
...
Click to expand...

www.kitco.com

Gold prices trading near session lows, below $1,850, after New York Fed Survey rises to -5.8 from -32.9

(Kitco News) - Easing recession fears appear to be taking its toll on the gold markets with prices trading near session lows after the New York Federal Reserve reported better-than-expected activity within its region’s manufacturing sector.
www.kitco.com
 
More bad news for the Fed in their hunt for disinflation clues:
The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) monthly confidence index rose 7 points to 42 in February, the trade group said on Wednesday.

This is the second month in a row that sentiment has improved among builders.

The jump in confidence in February was more than what analysts had expected. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected the index to rise to 37.

The February reading of 42 was the strongest since September 2022, the NAHB said.

The last time builder sentiment rose by this magnitude was in June 2013.
...
What are they saying? “The NAHB Home Sales Index showed further signs of stabilization in February as mortgage rates came down further during the month,” Eugenio J. Alemán, chief economist at Raymond James, wrote in a note.

“However, this situation may be reversed in the coming months as we expect mortgage rates to increase once again due to the Fed’s active interest rate campaign,” he added.
...
Click to expand...

www.marketwatch.com

U.S. builder confidence rises for second consecutive month, to highest level since September 2022

U.S. home builder sentiment rose for the second month in a row in February, the National Association of Home Builders said.
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
 
Goldhedge said:
If one could believe the (lying government) numbers ....
Click to expand...
Yes probably BS but how do you invest based on BS? Whats your strategy?
At the end of the day the market reacts based on the Gov numbers. BS or not. I am open to alternative investment strategies based on some other set of numbers though.
 
That's from Fortune magazine reporting on interviews Bill Smead gave to CNBC:
... according to Bill Smead, chief investment officer at investment firm Smead Capital Management.
...
It isn’t the first time Smead has blamed younger generations for high U.S. inflation. ...
Click to expand...

finance.yahoo.com

Inflation will remain ‘sticky’ for a decade—and Gen Z and millennials are to blame, an investment chief says

Will young Americans' spending habits be what causes inflation to stick around longer?
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com

Consumer spending is part of the engine of inflation, but it's not the primary fuel.
 
Inflation rebounded in January at the wholesale level, as producer prices rose more than expected to start the year, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

The producer price index, a measure of what raw goods fetch on the open market, rose 0.7% for the month. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 0.4% after a decline of 0.2% in December.
...
Click to expand...

www.cnbc.com

Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in January, more than expected, fueling inflation increase

The producer price index, a measure of what raw goods fetch on the open market, rose 0.7% in January.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

The initial weekly jobless decreased by 1,000 to 194,000 in the week to Saturday, surprising the markets with a slight drop.

Economists’ consensus calls projected for initial claims to rise to 200,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 195,000.
...
Click to expand...

www.kitco.com

U.S. weekly jobless claims drop by 1k to 194,000, gold price falls

www.kitco.com

^ more signs that inflation is not under control yet.
 
Cigarlover said:
Yes probably BS but how do you invest based on BS? Whats your strategy?
At the end of the day the market reacts based on the Gov numbers. BS or not. I am open to alternative investment strategies based on some other set of numbers though.
Click to expand...
That's a great question. I'm always reading about and listening to podcasts about trend following. The strategies are all based on price which cannot really be faked. I mean the price is what people are paying. No BS discernment required.

This guy may take a little getting used to, but I enjoy his podcasts. At the end of the day he is a truly great interviewer. He really does know what he's talking about. YMMV.

www.trendfollowing.com

Michael Covel's Trend Following Radio: 15 Million+ Downloads

“Your questions were excellent questions. I enjoyed this very much.” Vernon Smith, Nobel Prize in Economics “You are an exceptional interviewer.” Charles Faulkner, Market Wizard “You’ve surrounded yourself with one of the most advanced group of mentors possible…The people on your podcasts, and...
www.trendfollowing.com www.trendfollowing.com
 
After hot PPI, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester rubbed salt in the wounds of the market this morning when said she saw a compelling case for rolling out another 50 basis point hike earlier this month and the US central bank has to be prepared to move interest rates higher if inflation remains stubbornly high.
...
Click to expand...

Stocks & Bonds Puke After Fed's Mester Drops 'Hawk Bomb' | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
pmbug said:
Consumer spending is part of the engine of inflation, but it's not the primary fuel.
Click to expand...
Holding money i.e., 'saving it' is an blunder these days. If you don't spend it, it almost becomes worthless over night.

It hasn't gotten to where a wheelbarrow of cash is worth less than the wheelbarrow yet, but it's just over the horizon....
 
Goldhedge said:
Holding money i.e., 'saving it' is an blunder these days. ...
Click to expand...

Don't worry. "They" think of everything!

US Consumer Debt growing

Consumer debt hit a fresh record at the end of 2022 while delinquency rates rose for several types of loans, the New York Federal Reserve reported Thursday. Debt across all categories totaled $16.9 trillion, up about more than $1.3 trillion from a year ago as balances rose across all major...
www.pmbug.com www.pmbug.com
 
dpong said:
That's a great question. I'm always reading about and listening to podcasts about trend following. The strategies are all based on price which cannot really be faked. I mean the price is what people are paying. No BS discernment required.

This guy may take a little getting used to, but I enjoy his podcasts. At the end of the day he is a truly great interviewer. He really does know what he's talking about. YMMV.

www.trendfollowing.com

Michael Covel's Trend Following Radio: 15 Million+ Downloads

“Your questions were excellent questions. I enjoyed this very much.” Vernon Smith, Nobel Prize in Economics “You are an exceptional interviewer.” Charles Faulkner, Market Wizard “You’ve surrounded yourself with one of the most advanced group of mentors possible…The people on your podcasts, and...
www.trendfollowing.com www.trendfollowing.com
Click to expand...
I'll check him out. I always enjoy good financial podcasts.

Listening to my regular podcasts the theme that seems to be coming out is that we are going back to basics. individual stock pickers will be the winners going forward for the next decade. no more buy and hold or 60/40 strategies. The irony is that most money managers today have no clue. they never lived through a period of high inflation a long term recession. The only thing they know is buy and when the markets go down buy some more because it will be the fed to the rescue. How many of them can even read a balance sheet?

So, I am following that strategy. back to basics and for me the basics are where I used to make very good money. IBD is an invaluable tool and I recently signed up for a subscription. It's already making a difference.
 
giphy.gif


Short squeeze:
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged past $24K in Wednesday afternoon trading to reach a two-week high, helped by a combination of short liquidations and broader risk-on sentiment.

The token drove up 9.1% to $24.20K as of 5:08 p.m. ET, partly contributing to the global crypto market cap's 6.4% climb to $1.10T, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Virtually all major cryptos caught a bid during the session despite looming regulatory pressures and stronger-than-expected economic data.

Traders liquidated $61.2M of short-bitcoin (BTC-USD) positions over the last 24 hours, pushing up the coin's price, according to data from Coinglass. That's the highest level in which traders have covered their bearish BTC bets since Jan. 24.
...
Click to expand...

 
Cigarlover said:
I'll check him out. I always enjoy good financial podcasts.
Click to expand...
He interviews on a wide range of topics, so no single episode will be representative.
Michael Covel is the author of the book Trend Following and several others.
He is a hard core believer in trend following and will therefore occasionally trash other styles like trading fundamentals, and sometimes he maybe goes too far. [But don't be offended.] However, he does still have on his show traders and investors that do use other styles, including fundies.
Like I said, he may be an acquired taste, but I've been a listener for a long time, and he has a nack for asking very good questions in his interviews. Other episodes are rants without a guest. I like his interviews with Larry Hite quite a bit, though Larry's voice makes the listener pay attention to understand what is being said.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom