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So, about that 517k number...

...
Effective with data for January 2023, updated population estimates were incorporated
into the household survey. Population estimates for the household survey are developed
by the U.S. Census Bureau. Each year, the Census Bureau updates the estimates to
reflect new information and assumptions about the growth of the population since the
previous decennial census. The change in population reflected in the new estimates
results from adjustments for net international migration, updated vital statistics, and
improvements in estimation methodology.

In accordance with usual practice, BLS will not revise the official household survey
estimates for December 2022 and earlier months. However, to show the impact of the
population adjustments, table B displays differences in selected December labor force
series based on the old and new population estimates.

The adjustments increased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional
population in December by 954,000, the civilian labor force by 871,000, employment by
810,000, and unemployment by 60,000. The number of persons not in the labor force
increased by 82,000. Although the total unemployment rate was unaffected, the
employment-population ratio and labor force participation rate each increased by 0.1
percentage point.

Data users are cautioned that these annual population adjustments can affect the
comparability of household data series over time. Table C shows the effect of the
introduction of new population estimates on the change in selected labor force
measures between December 2022 and January 2023. Additional information on the
population adjustments and their effect on national labor force estimates is
available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cps-pop-control-adjustments.pdf.
...
Click to expand...

www.bls.gov

Employment Situation News Release - 2023 M01 Results

www.bls.gov www.bls.gov
 
jelly said:
Looks like "risk on" is finally back
Click to expand...

Lets let the squeeze play out before we make that call. Background numbers are dreadful + think about that jobs number for a second... it gives Powell cover to keep on keeping on --> See mom, nothing bad is happening, I dunno what those stonks boyz waz biatchen bout!
 
SPX Weekly - This might have been about it for this move. Pulling back from the bottom of a resistance zone

SPX_2023-02-04_11-17-21.png

Looking at the indicators...

SPX_2023-02-04_11-23-27.png

Short term momentum is below longer term, rate of change has fallen back toward 0 and the stochastics are peaking over 80.

I dunno but this move is looking a little cooked to me.
 
Looking back 10 years this is a 10 year low at least. I didn't bother going back any further. I know this winter has been mild but damn, that seems oversold to me too. I've been looking for a bottom but every time I think it won't go lower, it does. LOL.
Screen Shot 2023-02-04 at 1.30.49 PM.png
 
Lancers32 said:
Decent volume here. Maybe worth a punt here.

View attachment 6589
Click to expand...

Cigarlover said:
Looking back 10 years this is a 10 year low at least. I didn't bother going back any further. I know this winter has been mild but damn, that seems oversold to me too. I've been looking for a bottom but every time I think it won't go lower, it does. LOL.
View attachment 6596
Click to expand...

UNG behind the NG Futures - What is that divergence? Fund decay (management fees etc) or is this some sort of ESG reluctance to trade these things. Anyway, it appears to be a less reliable chart than the futures.

NG1!_2023-02-05_09-59-09.png

Anyway, this looks like the zone you'd expect buying (covering) to come into play. Could be a couple of short sharp rallies then a bit of sideways drudge as she works out a bottom. I dunno but a V is the least likely outcome in a wider time frame. Be nimble!

NG1!_2023-02-05_10-04-41.png
 
Zed said:
UNG behind the NG Futures - What is that divergence? Fund decay (management fees etc) or is this some sort of ESG reluctance to trade these things. Anyway, it appears to be a less reliable chart than the futures.

View attachment 6609

Anyway, this looks like the zone you'd expect buying (covering) to come into play. Could be a couple of short sharp rallies then a bit of sideways drudge as she works out a bottom. I dunno but a V is the least likely outcome in a wider time frame. Be nimble!

View attachment 6610
Click to expand...

Looks like that chart is worth a punt too. Lot of trading in this general area.
 
I don't trade futures anymore. It's way to easy to lose your money in that arena. UNG is the elf that is supposed to track the futures. As with most ETF's I find that the tracking isn't perfect. I only traded it once last year. Bought some calls, made 10% and got out a day or 2 later. Not long after that it started to head south and hasn't stopped. Turns out some puts on that bad boy would have been tremendous. Hindsight and all.. LOL.
 
ASX Gold Tribe all negative this AM save for the flag ship stock NST, it's up... make of that what you will. ;)
 
Zed said:
Wake up sleepy heads.
Click to expand...



U.S. stock futures fell Monday as investors awaited the latest batch of corporate earnings and an important speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
...
Disney, Chipotle, Dupont and PepsiCo are among the major companies reporting earnings this week. About half way through earnings season, profits for S&P 500 companies are on pace to be 2.7% lower for the fourth quarter, according to Refinitiv.

Markets will likely be on edge ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Tuesday before the Economic Club of Washington. Powell's comments on disinflation caused investors to bid shares higher last week and overlook another rate hike out of the central bank.
...
Click to expand...

www.cnbc.com

Stock futures slide to start week with more earnings and a Powell speech ahead

U.S. stock futures were lower to start trading as investors awaited more earnings and an important speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
Zed said:
Ouch, it's been a bad run for the Turks. ...
Click to expand...
Double ouch:
A second earthquake of 7.6 magnitude struck southern Turkey on Monday, within 12 hours of a first massive quake that already claimed hundreds of Turkish and Syrian lives.

Turkey's Disaster and Emergency Management Authority said the second quake took place at 1:32 p.m. local time at a 7km depth and had its epicenter in the Elbistan region of the Kahramanmaras province. The first powerful 7.8 magnitude earthquake also rocked southeastern Turkey and northern Syria earlier on Monday.

The total combined death toll has climbed to 2,452. In Turkey, 1,541 are reportedly dead, 9,733 injured with around 3,471 buildings collapsing during the catastrophic incident, according to the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority. Earlier on Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan described the event as the "biggest disaster" since the 1939 Erzincan earthquake.

Syria's Health Ministry reported 461 deaths and 1,326 injured in the Aleppo, Hama, Latakia and Tartous regions. The humanitarian White Helmets rescue service, which operates in the opposition-controlled parts of Syria, most recently estimated regional Syrian life losses near 381, with over 1,000 injured.
...
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www.cnbc.com

Two massive earthquakes rock Turkey and Syria as death toll exceeds 2,400

A second earthquake struck Turkey and Syria on Monday, adding to the tragedy of hundreds of losses incurred by a first quake earlier in the day.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
saw a video on Telegram... whole buildings crumbling to dust.

I don't think they built them earthquake proof back in the day....



more posted here:
www.pmbug.com

Earthquakes

Has anyone been watching the earthquake predictions? I frequent George Ures website (http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm) and he has been posting earthquake predictions by Patrick Geryl. Patrick Geryls' website looks like a bomb went off, but he has been dead on with his earthquake prediction of...
www.pmbug.com www.pmbug.com
 
Last edited:
Lawrence Lindsey, former Federal Reserve Governor and chief executive officer at The Lindsey Group, said the central bank’s benchmark interest rates are not restrictive enough to battle the highest price pressures in 40 years.

“We’re not restrictive. We’re probably neutral, but neutral doesn’t cool things off,” Lindsey said in an interview with CNBC’s “The Exchange” on Monday.

The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed-funds rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25%, to a target range of 4.50% to 4.75% last Wednesday, while once again stressing that it has more work to do in its efforts to bring inflation under control.

However, in the news conference following the decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said financial conditions had tightened significantly over the past year. He also acknowledged for the first time that “the disinflationary process has started.”

Traders took that as affirmation that the rate-hike cycle is nearing its end, with cuts in store by year-end. They projected a 70% probability that the rate will peak at 5-5.25% by May, followed by almost 50 basis points of cuts by the end of 2023, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

“The Fed chair, and I mean this as nicely as I can say it, had the most counterproductive press conference I can ever remember last Wednesday,” Lindsey said, adding that the central bank needs to stick to its plans to continue hiking rates to above 5%, or “maybe a little bit higher.”

Investors are also awaiting Powell’s appearance at an event Tuesday sponsored by the Economic Club of Washington, D.C., coming just a week after the his press conference.

“I think what he’s got to do tomorrow — because I’m sure he didn’t mean for that reaction to occur — he’s got to recalibrate, he’s got to recant. He’s got to say, ‘look folks we have to have higher real interest rates and it’s as simple as that,” Lindsey said.
...
Click to expand...

www.marketwatch.com

Fed's Powell delivered 'most counterproductive press conference' in memory: Larry Lindsey

Lawrence Lindsey, former Federal Reserve Governor and chief executive officer at The Lindsey Group, said the central bank’s benchmark interest rates are not...
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
 
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