The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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Zed said:
DXY Monthly - If this is a longer term USD bull market, as Brent @ Santiago Capital theorizes, this is around the level you'd be looking for a bounce/rally. Yes it has been a sharp/big correction but it was a big move. Fibo projections from here target the mid ~120's, a smidge over the last highs. ....
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"We expect the USD will continue to lose its appeal as the safe-haven currency of last resort," PIMCO's global strategist Gene Frieda said in a note. "We believe risk premiums will decline as inflation – and monetary policy volatility decline."

The strategist points to easing fears around a global recession and new disinflationary trends.

"While higher yields clearly worked in the dollar's favor last year, any forward-looking view must also take into account how the dollar was buoyed by the shocks of 2022 – the Russia-Ukraine war, the spike in energy prices, and inflation – and the extent to which they may abate in 2023," Frieda wrote earlier this week. "PIMCO believes the dollar, which has depreciated since hitting a 20-year peak last September, is likely to fall further in 2023 as inflation falls, recession risks decline, and other shocks abate."
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www.kitco.com

U.S. dollar is losing its appeal as 'safe-haven currency of last resort' - PIMCO

www.kitco.com

But what if (global) recession risks do not decline?
 
Zed said:
Believe or not Gold is considered too small a market for size by the big boys. US gov debt still rules the roost for parking big $$$.
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Therein lies the real issue. The bond markets are gigantic and the Real Problem. When that blows up it will be chaos. Gold is a tiny fraction of the size. So one obvious answer, Gold needs to grow significantly in market size. And other places will see some flows like stocks, Real Estate, cash, cryptos, Food, who knows what else.
 
Lots of very average to below average earnings after hours. Setting up potential Island Reversals on many tech stocks. I still think the SPY ~$399 area is KEY. Is this a breakout and retest or a Bull Trap. Clearly I've said Bull Trap but we will see. An example from AMZN. This would be possible if you open up back around $105.

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TSLA Weekly - I'm going to say that we see a near term top (in weeks) in this resistance area under the averages.

TSLA_2023-02-03_09-35-05.png
 
Voodoo said:
Lots of very average to below average earnings after hours. Setting up potential Island Reversals on many tech stocks. I still think the SPY ~$399 area is KEY. Is this a breakout and retest or a Bull Trap. Clearly I've said Bull Trap but we will see. An example from AMZN. This would be possible if you open up back around $105.

View attachment 6570
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AMZN_2023-02-03_09-40-29.png
 
Zed said:
How many stocks in the scan? I think I asked before... auldtimers.
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I'm uncertain. My chosen universe is Russell 3000 stocks that are priced between $1 and $20. I also use a volume filter to make sure the symbol is liquid.

Each stock has just made a 20 week breakout higher, and some other criteria, but nothing too fancy.

But my experience running this system for 3 years -- 49 buy signals is a great many.
 
Equity markets cheered the Fed's position, major stock indices surging to record highs when policymakers confirmed they were open to rate cuts. The punchbowl, Goldilocks, the Greenspan put. Nah. The last hurrah before much harsher reality set in. There is no punchbowl and curves told everyone exposing the Fed's fraud.
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I just got home and I heard that on the way home. Biden is trying to decide what to do. I guess they got all the top secret sites from the documents he left lying around and now they can go target the missile silos. Also some farmland china bought wasn't to far from a major nuke silo in Montana.
 
Cigarlover said:
I just got home and I heard that on the way home. Biden is trying to decide what to do. I guess they got all the top secret sites from the documents he left lying around and now they can go target the missile silos. Also some farmland china bought wasn't to far from a major nuke silo in Montana.
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This whole document thing seems a bit odd to me, right from Trump forward. It's just not something you've ever done to presidents before. It would have been handled quietly in the past even if it was a real issue. This whole thing just smells.
 
Zed said:
The market isn't listening, yet.

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My favorite financial podcast. Also just discovered we grew up in the same place and in HS he was on the football team that my brother was captain of. Small world.

Keep hearing the end of the world is right around the corner. And then the market powers higher. Hard to invest in this environment.
 
Zed said:
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Theater. They mess with Biden on the documents it tars Trump indirectly too. Now I don't like Trump but given the choice between Harris Buttplug and Gruesome I opt for The Donald. But he needs to get his head out of his arse re these appointments. And forget about clot shot warp speed. Now that was not a good idea.
 
It's amazing anyone believes the BS anymore. The US gained 515,000 jobs. 🤣 :ROFLMAO:

They use that to do this...

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And pour money into the Tech stocks and market to keep that from doing the same. Rinse and repeat.
 
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