US Debt is unsustainable

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Is the USD Really Too Big to Fail?​

By Matthew Piepenburg
Partner
July 14, 2024

Between politics (driven by self rather than public servants), markets (driven by debt rather than profits) and currencies (diluted by over-creation rather than chaperoned by a real asset), it is fair to say we live in not interesting but surreal times.

But amidst the surreal, the dollar, as many believe, is our rock, our immortal albeit often unloved constant.

The USD: Too Big to Fail?

Whatever one thinks of the dollar, we can’t deny its centrifugal force, exorbitant privilege and entirely unequaled market power (from the current SWIFT and Eurodollar systems to the derivative and petrodollar markets).

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In addition, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, the Republic of the Congo and Sudan are also betting on greater use of local currencies in trade.
How would you like to be on the other side of that trade? You selling these countries real goods in exchange for Zimbabwe dollars?
 
Martin Armstrong writes a bit about this. Yellen has been up to some tricks on What types of debt they've used.


This is all that matters,

We are projecting the National Debt will hit nearly $100 trillion as soon as 2027/2029.​

 
The $USD will survive, but the UST will be the unit getting destroyed. Nobody with any sense of finance would buy long term bonds with the condition of world currencies and debt.

Ironically, Russia is one of a few countries that has been fiscally responsible with a very low debt-to-GDP ratio of 30% even with the war going on compared to 120% USA and 200% Japan.

China is using cash to stockpile all commodities including surplus unrefined silver ore from Latin America instead of buying more bonds.

Long gold, silver and platinum. Start thinking internationally.
 
It's more than SS and Medicare being talked about here. No where do I hear any mention about all the money being given away to foreign interests, no where do I hear anything about actually working together. One thing I do hear is grassbag playing the blame game.

Grassley Demands Cooperation On Social Security And Medicare: It’s Time For An ‘Adult Conversation’​

Aug 5, 2024

Before the Congressional recess, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) delivered remarks on the federal budget during a Senate Budget Committee hearing.


10:17
 
It's more than SS and Medicare being talked about here. No where do I hear any mention about all the money being given away to foreign interests,
Because we really don't give that much.

Granted, we give more to other nations than other nations themselves give, but it's still very small relative to other spending.


A quick search showed this:


In reality, foreign assistance typically makes up less than 1% of the trillions of dollars in federal spending. Still, the U.S. gives more money in foreign aid in total dollars than any other country in the world, distributing more than $640 billion globally from 2012 through 2022.

While $640 billion IS a lot of money, it is spread out over ten years.

Btw, I don't think that includes money spent recently on Ukraine.
....and that itself exceeds all other foreign aid. If you want to cut something, THAT is what you'd cut first.



no where do I hear anything about actually working together.
Trump tried that, but was viciously fought on everything.


One thing I do hear is grassbag playing the blame game
What did he say that isn't true?

The gov has a spending problem. We can't tax our way out of this mess.

Gov tax revenue over the past 80 years has averaged between 16 and 18 percent of gdp, no matter what the tax rates were.
....and no matter which party was in charge, gdp has only averaged about 2.7% growth over that same period.

Yet federal spending has far exceeded 2.7% of gdp over those same 80 years.

Look at this chart showing gov spending as a percent of gdp.


When you were working, if your expenses were rising three or four times as fast as your increases in income, and you were making up the difference with yearly increases in your debt load, would you have considered it as being indefinately sustainable?

Grassley is correct. It is time for an adult conversation, but the dems don't want to even talk about cutting spending. All they want to do is take more money from people.
....but that has been shown to not work, because no matter the tax rates, the gov consistently collects 17% of gdp in taxes.


The ONLY way to fix any of it, is to cut spending. If spending isn't cut, SS and medicare WILL be in trouble and end up having to be cut.

Why? Because those are "pay as you go" programs. If the surplus for those programs are allowed to run out, what other choice will there be?

The money collected from current workers simply isn't enough to make the promised payments to recipients of those programs.

Can you make payments that you are lacking the funds to pay?

Neither can the government.
....at least not without printing the money with which to do it.
....but that'll fuel inflation, and that's no good either. All that does is dilute the value of already existing money.



So again, what is wrong with what Grassley stated? We DO need an adult conversation on a national level, about our govs spending problem.
 
We DO need an adult conversation on a national level, about our govs spending problem.

Agree 100%. But we need to do it from a sane perspective. No blame game. Enough of that to go around on all sides. Sit down, hash things out and come up with sane solutions.
 
Agree 100%. But we need to do it from a sane perspective. No blame game. Enough of that to go around on all sides. Sit down, hash things out and come up with sane solutions.
The only sane solution is to cut spending, but the dems refuse to even discuss doing that.

All they want, is to find ways to increase revenues.
...but no matter the tax rates or who is in charge, that hasn't increased in 80 years.

An "adult conversation", would acknowledge the reality of the situtation.
 
To NOT end up with forced cuts to SS and medicare, other spending must be cut.
 
The problem is the swamp critters never want to cut ANY spending. They only seek to expand spending, and rely on increasing the debt in order to do so.
....and increase the debt multiples of times faster than the ability to pay it back is increasing.

It's a recipe for disaster.
 
It's no different than someone running up their cc debt to unpayable levels. It always ends with bankruptcy.
....but in our nations case, the best case will be with massive currency debasement.

The debt itself, is unpayable.
 
@searcher , in your opinion, what can be cut to bring spending into line with revenue, so that SS and medicare aren't forced to be cut once the trust fund runs dry?

Edited to add: whatever it is, it needs to total approx two trillion annually for spending cuts to be effective.
 
Not to worry. WWIII will solve all our problems. We blow up everything, default on the debt and do it all over again. Thus the reason the central banks around the world are buying up all the gold. Gold is real money and when things get reset, governments will have no choice but to go to central banks and keep them in power for the next couple of generations.
 
no matter the tax rates or who is in charge, that hasn't increased in 80 years.
Tax revenue follows gdp, NOT marginal tax rates, or who is being taxed.

So all the talk over rate rates there are, or who pays what, is all a moot point that the gov uses to keep us all bickering and fighting amongst ourselves, instead of working together to hold our elected officials accountable for their fiscal and monetary mis-management.

taxrevenuepercentGDP.png
 
Just a little food for thought. YMMV.



"The bottom line is we need to pay for everything as we go and stop deficit spending, and there are only two avenues for doing that—raising tax revenues and lowering expenses."

Only problem is that no matter the tax rate, the gov "only" collects between 16% and 18% of gdp.
...and that's been true for longer than anyone reading these words have been alive.

Gov top tax rate at 75%? Toprate at 35%? Dems in office? Reps in office? It don't matter.
They collect approx the same % of gdp in taxes, no matter the tax rate.

So how much tax revenue is collected is directly linked to gdp.

That means that tax revenue can only grow as fast as gdp grows, and to try taking more only hurts the economy.

Since WW2, gdp has grown at an average yearly rate of about 2.6%


taxrevenuepercentGDP.png


So the only way to increase tax revenue, is for gdp to increase.
 
Yep. It's a spending problem, not a revenue problem. Government stimulus spurred GDP growth, but at a negative return on dollars spent (ie. we got less than $1 growth for every $1 spent).
 
To add a bit more,
So the only way to increase tax revenue, is for gdp to increase.
Which is why tax revenue as measured in dollars, goes up after tax cuts.

Cutting taxes leads to more $ being able to be spent on productive endeavors that result in higher gdp, that the gov then gets the same 18% of.

A bigger pie results in more pie per slice.
....and who doesn't like more pie in their slice of it? Nobody, that's who.

What that shows, is that private spending and investment grows gdp faster than gov spending does.

So the answer is to drasticly lower taxes along with gov spending, and unleash the private sector to put that money to work in ways that the gov is just not capable of.
 
So the answer is to drasticly lower taxes along with gov spending, and unleash the private sector to put that money to work in ways that the gov is just not capable of.
There's only one party that knows this....
 
There's only one party that knows this....
One thing I've found that will open eyes, is to print out that chart I posted and show it to the ones who think high tax rates are the answer.

Show them using the gov's own data that no matter the rate, no matter the party in charge, that tax revenue always stays within the same narrow % of gdp.
.....and then tell them they can easily verify this info by simply searching online for "US tax revenue as a % of gdp by year".

It ends their argument.
 
The constitution lays out what can and can not be done at the federal level. Lawyers who became politicians decided to change definitions so they could usurp that founding documents of this nation. Is there a flaw in the constitution because there is no way to enforce it by the people? Or, are the people flawed because they refuse to enforce it themselves. The 10th amendment states powers not granted to the feds are reserved to the states and or the people.
 
This was posted by bigbug in a different thread. Only seven mins long and well worth a listen. Speaks volumes.

 
The constitution lays out what can and can not be done at the federal level. Lawyers who became politicians decided to change definitions so they could usurp that founding documents of this nation. Is there a flaw in the constitution because there is no way to enforce it by the people? Or, are the people flawed because they refuse to enforce it themselves. The 10th amendment states powers not granted to the feds are reserved to the states and or the people.
It's because there is not an easy enforcement mechanism built into the Constitution. It requires people to want to abide by its limitations.
 
It's because there is not an easy enforcement mechanism built into the Constitution. It requires people to want to abide by its limitations.
That's true of all law. Before it can work to preserve order, there has to be an AGREEMENT that it is valid and should be enforced.

Else you wind up with jury nullification, selective enforcement, lawfare, and finally, anarchy.
 
...the only answer, is an educated voter population.

The opposite of what the Leftists WANT. They want universal sufferage - a recipe for destruction, inside of two generations. As is happening.

They also want to, and have, politicized the schools and curricula. Which inhibits the development of critical-thinking skills. Not an accident.

That was WHY the schools, education, and criminal law, were all left as State prerogatives. That, too has been corrupted, almost abolished.
 
That's true of all law.
What I mean is that there are no punishments for not following it.

Take the law against burglary for example. It not only says burglary is illegal, but goes on to clearly establish punishments for those who commit burglary.

For example, if the Constitution said that when a law Enacted is determined to be unConstitutional, that all congress critters voting to Enact it lose their seats, that would be similar.
....but nothing like that is in there.
 
What I mean is that there are no punishments for not following it.

Take the law against burglary for example. It not only says burglary is illegal, but goes on to clearly establish punishments for those who commit burglary.

For example, if the Constitution said that when a law Enacted is determined to be unConstitutional, that all congress critters voting to Enact it lose their seats, that would be similar.
....but nothing like that is in there.
You're right, but not entirely.

Every officeholder has to take an oath to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution. Ignoring and violating sections of the Constitution, is destroying it - not abiding by it.

That should be, at the least, perjury, a falsehood under oath.

It should also be Treason, because it is treason.

THIS should be spelled out in the United States Code...but it won't, just like Constitutional term limits won't be enacted.
 
Wait until it hits $50T after the next presidential term, then they unleash a debt crisis to affect the election.
 
^^^ ok, let's start by retiring the trillion$ owed to Social Security.
 

Deep State Knows It Cannot Cheat Kamala In - Martin Armstrong​

50
 
What number comes after a trillion? Is it quadrillion?
 
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