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The dominance of the informal economy can be illustrated by the fact that most Zimbabweans, rather than shopping at formal retail stores such as Pick’N’Pay and OK, buy their groceries from rows of minivans parked on the street opposite the stores. These minivans are packed full of products smuggled in from South Africa, which are sold for a fraction of the price of the larger grocers. Even for local suppliers, the volatility of the currency makes it risky to sell to the formal sector. A Zimbabwean farmer based in the capital Harare advised us that any meat sold to Pick’N’Pay will be on 30-day payment terms and in local currency, which means the value could drop substantially by the time he receives payment. This, in turn, causes inflated pricing for the larger retail stores. Meanwhile, if he sells the meat to the informal trader, the price is in USD and is paid immediately.
These examples illustrate the core problem plaguing the local currency: for the majority of citizens, the informal market has simply become the easier and more convenient means of conducting business. The ZiG is also lagging behind in terms of circulation in the economy. More than four months after the currency was introduced, it is common for many Zimbabweans (particularly those not employed by the government) to have never even seen a ZiG bank note.
The government has indicated that it plans to increase penalties against those involved in “unjust price hikes, manipulation of the ZiG, smuggling, and all forms of unfair trade practices”. While such plans are indicative of the government’s determination to tighten regulations against the informal market and increase the use of the ZiG in the economy, it remains unlikely that the plans will successfully penalise the 80% of the population that survives through the informal economy.
It is clear that the government’s roadmap towards de-dollarizing and adopting the ZiG as the country’s sole currency will likely face several implementation challenges over the next five years. The government has yet to provide any details of this roadmap. Meanwhile, formal businesses in Zimbabwe will continue to conduct most of their financial transactions in USD. Overall, the ZiG’s potential impact looks weak, neither detering the use of foreign currency in the informal economy nor eroding the USD’s influence on the formal economy.
The government’s use of penalties to force the ZiG on Zimbabweans will likely backfire, instead increasing the use of the informal economy and potentially causing larger, tax-paying formal businesses to exit the country. The ruling Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) – is also unlikely to completely ban the USD, which its senior members still covet and need to keep the mining sector – which is not conducted in ZiG – afloat.
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