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Nobody has a crystal ball, and that’s demonstrated every year when Wall Street’s professionals hazard a guess on what to expect for the following year.
The St. Louis Federal Reserve crunched the numbers on 21 years of economist forecasts collected by the Blue Chip Survey of Professional Forecasters. The regional Fed tracked the widely followed survey of firms, including Wall Street giants Bank of America and Goldman Sachs, as well as top manufacturers and insurers, over the period from 1993 to 2024.
The results? The forecasts are as good as coin flips.
For GDP growth, unemployment and the 10-year Treasury yield, the percentage of years in which the actual data fell within the range of the average bottom 10 and average top 10 forecasts was below 50%; on inflation, it was slightly better, at 56%.
What’s also useful in the St. Louis Fed study is that the bank looked at the magnitude of the misses. On GDP growth, for example, the mean absolute forecast error was 1 percentage point, meaning that investors should expect GDP growth in 2025 to range from 1.1% to 3.1%, judging from the 2.1% forecast for this year.
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Hmmm, may have to look at this one for future investing. Paying a dividend is almost unheard of in mining sectors....SILJ
Wow SILJ delivered a 6.91% dividend in 2024.
Another source (yahoo) actually had the dividend at 7.25%. I own a lot of SILJ but haven't bothered to check which number is correct. 72 cents/share. All I know is it's orders of magnitude higher than last year's payout.Sucks as I owned ITM calls. Had no idea a big dividend was coming. So I lost the value on the calls (cause the price dropped the value of the dividend) and didn't get any dividend. Lesson learned.
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Bond uncertainty may mean that gold is less likely to dance ‘negatively’ to the tune of bond yields for the foreseeable future. That is good news. But gold’s stellar performance in 2024 may leave it facing a near-term uphill struggle as technical indicators suggest it is overbought. That said, given that the longer-term trend is intact, it could present investors with the opportunity to engage at more attractive levels.
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EXK is a perfect example of why people don't want to bother with the mining space. All we have heard for a year is how everything is fully funded with the loan they took out to build out Terronera. Then out of nowhere they do a 70 mil dollar offering last month and now all of a sudden after telling us for a year everything is on track they come up with delays and instead of being on track to start production it has been delayed until Q2?
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