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Nobody has a crystal ball, and that’s demonstrated every year when Wall Street’s professionals hazard a guess on what to expect for the following year.

The St. Louis Federal Reserve crunched the numbers on 21 years of economist forecasts collected by the Blue Chip Survey of Professional Forecasters. The regional Fed tracked the widely followed survey of firms, including Wall Street giants Bank of America and Goldman Sachs, as well as top manufacturers and insurers, over the period from 1993 to 2024.

The results? The forecasts are as good as coin flips.

For GDP growth, unemployment and the 10-year Treasury yield, the percentage of years in which the actual data fell within the range of the average bottom 10 and average top 10 forecasts was below 50%; on inflation, it was slightly better, at 56%.

What’s also useful in the St. Louis Fed study is that the bank looked at the magnitude of the misses. On GDP growth, for example, the mean absolute forecast error was 1 percentage point, meaning that investors should expect GDP growth in 2025 to range from 1.1% to 3.1%, judging from the 2.1% forecast for this year.
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/oth...ist-forecasts-are-as-bad-as-usual/ar-AA1wR4l4
 
... The forecasts are as good as coin flips ...
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hernancortes said:
SILJ
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Hmmm, may have to look at this one for future investing. Paying a dividend is almost unheard of in mining sectors....

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I've held this one for 20 years and it's not too shabby... Prolly could have a whole bunch of shares if I traded it consistently, but I just let it ride.

Even has a PE: 30.42 !

Yield: 1.34%

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Not sure how this plays down under... but



BREAKING: The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices jumped to a RECORD 11.0% in December.

Delinquency rates on these loans is now up 9.4 percentage points over the last 2 years

This puts delinquency rates above the 10.7% peak seen in December 2012.

Furthermore, delinquency rates on these loans are rising twice as fast as during the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Overall, there were more than $2 billion in office loans that became newly delinquent in December 2024.

The commercial real estate crisis is worsening.
 
In a Six-Week Span, this Dark Pool with a Curious Past Traded 3.7 Billion Shares

There is a precise date as to when the American public became overtly aware that the stock market structure had become outrageously rigged. That date is March 30, 2014 when famed author and former Wall Street veteran, Michael Lewis, went on 60 Minutes to proclaim: “The United States stock market, the most iconic market in global capitalism, is rigged.”

When asked to explain just who it is that’s rigging the stock market, Lewis explained that it’s a “combination of these stock exchanges, the big Wall Street banks and high-frequency traders.”

In a Six-Week Span, this Dark Pool with a Curious Past Traded 3.7 Billion Shares

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: January 6, 2025 ~ There is a precise date as to when the American public became overtly aware that the stock market
wallstreetonparade.com
 
Voodoo said:
Sucks as I owned ITM calls. Had no idea a big dividend was coming. So I lost the value on the calls (cause the price dropped the value of the dividend) and didn't get any dividend. Lesson learned.
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Another source (yahoo) actually had the dividend at 7.25%. I own a lot of SILJ but haven't bothered to check which number is correct. 72 cents/share. All I know is it's orders of magnitude higher than last year's payout.
 
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Bond uncertainty may mean that gold is less likely to dance ‘negatively’ to the tune of bond yields for the foreseeable future. That is good news. But gold’s stellar performance in 2024 may leave it facing a near-term uphill struggle as technical indicators suggest it is overbought. That said, given that the longer-term trend is intact, it could present investors with the opportunity to engage at more attractive levels.
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Gold Market Commentary: January jitters

www.gold.org www.gold.org
 
EXK is a perfect example of why people don't want to bother with the mining space. All we have heard for a year is how everything is fully funded with the loan they took out to build out Terronera. Then out of nowhere they do a 70 mil dollar offering last month and now all of a sudden after telling us for a year everything is on track they come up with delays and instead of being on track to start production it has been delayed until Q2?
 
Cigarlover said:
EXK is a perfect example of why people don't want to bother with the mining space. All we have heard for a year is how everything is fully funded with the loan they took out to build out Terronera. Then out of nowhere they do a 70 mil dollar offering last month and now all of a sudden after telling us for a year everything is on track they come up with delays and instead of being on track to start production it has been delayed until Q2?
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From what I've learned is that private equity is even scummier than I thought possible. They have taken over LOTS of board rooms and place management in place that tank companies on purpose. Not saying that is true here but its certainly happened in the mining space. Probably the perfect area for them to focus on.
 
BLSBS reported non-farm payment numbers today. Markets jumped around. Not sure why anyone pays attention to these fake numbers that get heavily revised a month or two later.
 

DEALER'S INSANE 2025 SPOT PRICE CALL! ➡️ What if Silver & Gold Manipulation ENDS This Year??​

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Things could get hairy in financial markets this week.

Quick explanation of what's going on and why we may be about to see a little chaos:

George Washington is wreaking havoc.

The dollar index (DXY) has risen from 100 in September to 110 as of this morning.

That's just shy of the peak of 113 that it set in 2022.

Markets have rallied since late 2022 partially because everyone believed we saw the peak of dollar strength AND the peak in bond yields.

But now global yields are surging towards new highs despite the Fed cutting rates.

This is perhaps the most alarming bit for global markets.

Most investors figured long-term bond yields would FALL once the Fed started cutting.

But we've seen the exact opposite.

Is this a sign that investors have lost confidence in US bonds due to extreme fiscal deficits and 125% debt to GDP?

Are they worried that sudden cuts from Elon's DOGE efforts will merely send the US into a deep recession, lower tax receipts, and actually worsen the deficit?

Quite possibly.

When bond yields fall, it gets cheaper to take on new debt and the party can go on.

But when the dollar is rising, existing dollar debt gets HARDER to pay back, especially if you're a foreigner who needs to pay back dollar debts with a weaker currency.

So what do you do if your debt is suddenly getting more expensive?

You have to start selling whatever you can to get dollars to pay back your debt.

That means selling whatever liquid assets you have: Stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, gold, etc.

That's why rapidly rising yields can lead to downward price action in all other assets.

The higher the dollar goes, the more people need to sell to service their debts.

Things are particularly acute in the UK.

Not only have UK bond yields risen to new highs, but the pound is falling steeply at the same time.

This is typically seen in emerging markets when investors realize that rising yields don't signal a value buy - but rather that a currency crisis may be imminent.

So how does it end?

If it's allowed to continue without any intervention, this trend of dollar up, yields up, dollar up more, most other assets down... will likely accelerate.

The important thing to remember as an investor is this:

Debt is still used as the underlying collateral for the banking system.

If yields are allowed to rise uncontrollably, bond portfolios plummet in value, the entire banking system is insolvent, and everything comes crashing down.

That will almost certainly not be allowed.

So what's the solution?

The same as always: Currency devaluation.

Central bankers can start buying bonds again to keep yields from exploding higher.

The outcome remains binary: Either they let everything collapse, or the devalue currencies and keep the music going.

In both cases, you want hard assets without counter-party risk.

Bitcoin and gold.

It's clear that many more investors have come to this same conclusion.

The last time the dollar was at these levels, Bitcoin was below $20,000 and gold was around $1,650

Today Bitcoin is above $90,000 and Gold is up 63% from 2022 lows.

Remember what you own, stay solvent, and if you have a good amount of cash, you may have some solid buying opportunities if this is allowed to continue.

Don't forget that we've had multiple moments like this over the past 4 years.

And more liquidity has always been the end result.

Those who held their nerve and kept the big picture in mind the past have been handsomely rewarded.

This time will likely not be different.
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Gold and silver prices are firmer in early U.S. trading Tuesday. Both metals got a mild boost following a U.S. inflation report that came in cooler than expected. February gold was last up $5.50 at $2,683.90. March silver was up $0.131 at $30.44.

Today’s U.S. data point is the producer price index report for December. PPI came in cooler than expected at up 0.2%, month-on month, versus expectations of up 0.4%. The core PPI (excluding food and energy) was also cooler than forecast, at unchanged, month-on-month, versus expectations for up 0.3%.
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www.kitco.com

Gold, silver get modest price boost from cooler U.S. PPI

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com www.kitco.com
 
🇲🇱🇨🇦 Canada's Barrick Gold suspends operations as the Malian government seizes company's gold stock over tax debts

🛑 Barrick Gold, which operates the Loulo-Gounkoto mining complex in western Mali, halted operations after the government of Mali over the weekend evacuated from the company's gold stock approximately three metric tons of gold, valued at roughly $245 million, a sum named by informed sources to Western media.

"The interim attachment order on the gold has now been executed by the Malian government by moving the existing gold stock from the site to a custodial bank. […] As a result, Barrick has regrettably initiated the temporary suspension of operations," the company said in a statement.

💰The Malian authorities reportedly ordered the seizure of the company's gold stock because Barrick owes the Malian government a total of $5.5 billion in taxes, which the mining company disputes, saying that new mining regulations adopted by the government in 2023 do not apply to its existing operations.

Last Monday, Barrick threatened to halt operations in the Loulo-Gounkoto within a week, unless the African country's government lifts restrictions on gold shipments from the mine.

Subscribe to @sputnik_africa

🔸 Sputnik Africa (https://en.sputniknews.africa/) 🔸

 
Don't you think they would've shipped a little bit of that out the back door?

Maybe they should have just dumped it into their Tailings Lake. :pffft: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: talk about coming full circle.
 


Will China be forced to unleash more stimulus?
 
Gold prices are once again testing resistance just below $2,700 an ounce as U.S. inflation data supports the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after November’s 0.3% increase, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Wednesday. The inflation data was in line with expectations.

The report noted that, over the last 12 months, headline inflation rose 2.9%, also in line with expectations.

Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% last month, coming in slightly cooler than expected. According to consensus estimates, economists had forecast a 0.3% increase in core consumer prices.

The report stated that annual core inflation rose by 3.2% last month. Core inflation over the past 12 months rose at its slowest pace since August.
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www.kitco.com

Gold price hits resistance near $2,700 as U.S. core CPI rises 0.2% in December

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com www.kitco.com

Markets seem to think the numbers were nice.
 
pmbug said:
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Oriental Ghost reports on a new wrinkle in China that is driving retail gold demand:
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So apparently the “Physically #Gold accumulate” product at Chinese banks is the real deal. The Chinese banks back up your Gold purchase 1:1 with physical Gold. You can either choose to get paid in fiat RMB Yuan when you sell or you can withdraw a minimum of 10 gram Gold bar/coin (depending on the Chinese bank. Some banks have a minimal withdrawal amount of 20 grams of Gold).

Please note that these #Gold coins/bars have super low premiums/transaction fees (around 1% or less).

So China has opened the floodgates of physical #Gold sales to its mass public. This is actually a huge development!

Thanks @oriental_ghost for the heads up.
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