2025 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

[Cigarlover]

nice move in EXK today. Up over 20%

 

[pmbug]

Looks like silver just broke through $33. We'll see if it holds until the day's close.

 

[Viking]

It will.

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

A Paradigm Shift - The great Microsoft - Unched since November of 2023 with gold up +50% over that period??? Truth.

*Cracks are forming in passive investing. In recent years, close to 7% of every American's 401k has been invested in the last decade's darlings, like $MSFT. Our country's wealth is overdosed with financial assets and underweight hard assets.

 

[Viking]

Looks like silver just broke through $33. We'll see if it holds until the day's close.

I predict we’ll see $34.

 

[dpong]

Soooo close.

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

It feels like we're on the cusp of the metals breaking free of the constraints of the paper markets.

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

Looks like QT is over...

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

 

[Viking]

I predict there will be a pullback.

 

[dpong]

Gold's monthly chart is just unreal.

 

[pmbug]

The chart is so unusual, you almost need to zoom out to get a better perspective.

 

[pmbug]

Physical Gold Shortages Grow | BullionStar Raises Premiums Amid High Demand

BullionStar sees high demand and rising premiums. With LBMA shortages growing, physical gold pricing may soon dominate the market.

www.bullionstar.com

 

[pmbug]

We've got a thread talking about various sound money legislation working through individual States. Here's some real world impact on gold demand from just Utah:

Sitting in a vault on Salt Lake City’s west side is a bit of Utah treasure — $60 million in gold purchased over the course of the last several months, part of a minor gold rush led by state Rep. Ken Ivory.

Legislation that the West Jordan Republican sponsored last year allowed State Treasurer Marlo Oaks to invest up to 10% of the state’s rainy day funds in gold. Since its passage, the state’s gold reserve has grown to $60 million as of the end of this legislative session, according to Oaks.

Because Utah’s rainy day funds now have about $1.4 billion, Oaks has the authority to buy an additional $90 million in gold, which is intended as a precaution against economic downturns or major emergencies.
...

Utah has invested $60M of taxpayer money in gold — so far. Here’s how the state plans to use it.

Utah has bought $60 million worth of gold as a hedge against fears over a weakening dollar.

www.sltrib.com

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

Gold and silver still priced too low - Citi:

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

Gold and silver both look like they have broken through some minor resistance levels. We'll see if this holds through tomorrow's close.

 

[pmbug]

 

[Voodoo]

Speaking of fireworks, looks like the old bastards are already out begging for a bailout.

Fed Urged To Bail Out Hedge Funds During Next Market Crash: Trillions In Basis Trades At Risk | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[JayDubya]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
And no doubt they'll get it.


By the way, could you copy paste or summarize?

 

[Voodoo]

Sorry I was in a hurry. I didn't actually read it either but I did see a video discussing which was decent, at least the start.

 

[pmbug]

Here is a no-paywall report on the issue:

A panel of financial experts has suggested that the Federal Reserve establish an emergency program to manage highly leveraged hedge fund trades in case of a crisis in the $29 trillion U.S. Treasuries market. The potential for a rapid unwinding of roughly $1 trillion in hedge fund arbitrage positions could not only disrupt the Treasuries market but also spill over into other areas, making Federal Reserve intervention necessary to maintain financial stability.
...
The primary concern is the "basis trade," where hedge funds exploit small price differences between Treasuries and their corresponding futures contracts. Kashyap noted that this type of trade is highly concentrated, involving perhaps fewer than 10 hedge funds.

If these funds need to quickly exit their positions, the risk is that bond dealers may not be equipped to handle the sudden flood of transactions. ...

Fed Urged to Explore Hedge Fund Bailout Tool for Basic Trades

www.tradealgo.com

 

[Goldhedge]

Gold and silver both look like they have broken through some minor resistance levels. We'll see if this holds through tomorrow's close.

Apparently it held!

 

[Viking]

 

[pmbug]

 

[pmbug]

 

[Goldhedge]

This will be the trade of the decade!