2025 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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That's a pretty astounding figure but the CME still holds the right to cash-settle, regardless of the buyers preference for delivery so that's exactly what they'll do. The size and nature of the order may still capture attention and cause some short-term movements or speculation but basically things will move forward as if nothing really happened just like any other day.

Let's hope more people (players is the metals markets) take notice and see it for what it really is.
 
Man that was a Huuuge Gold trade. 106,000 contracts is over 42 Million OZ of Gold. Ie, let me count the zeros. 132 BILLION dollars. That is only central bank or Warren Buffet territory.
 
Here is Rafi's video today where he noticed this and showed that it mostly went away today. Platinum also had a big trade where silver was pretty muted.

 
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Some goods will not be subject to the Reciprocal Tariff. These include: (1) articles subject to 50 USC 1702(b); (2) steel/aluminum articles and autos/auto parts already subject to Section 232 tariffs; (3) copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber articles; (4) all articles that may become subject to future Section 232 tariffs; (5) bullion; and (6) energy and other certain minerals that are not available in the United States
...
Click to expand...

www.whitehouse.gov

Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Declares National Emergency to Increase our Competitive Edge, Protect our Sovereignty, and Strengthen our National and Economic Security

PURSUING RECIPROCITY TO REBUILD THE ECONOMY AND RESTORE NATIONAL AND ECONOMIC SECURITY: Today, President Donald J. Trump declared that foreign trade and
www.whitehouse.gov
 
I see that Gold, Copper, Lumber and other things are exempt. One Glaring Exception.... That list said bullion so who knows.
 
PMs getting corrected... still in the 'up' channel

So... we've been in a recession. Watch them blame tariffs for it.



WOW.

The Atlanta Fed has just revised their Q1 2025 GDP estimate lower AGAIN, to -3.7%.

Adjusting for gold imports and exports, the Atlanta Fed now sees -1.4% GDP contraction in Q1 2025.

Just 2 months ago, they saw GDP growing by +3.8% in the same period.

The revision was due to recent economic data which has shown a slowdown in spending.

Is the Atlanta Fed calling for a recession?
 


Just wait til we move completely away from the private Federal Reserve system!
 
pmbug said:
Yesterday's tariff announcement excluded bullion. As a result, the EFP premium has been crashing (down to $0.10 for silver as of a few minutes ago). As the EFP premium goes to zero (or negative), the flow of metal from London to NY will likely slow down or possibly reverse. I haven't checked the EFP premium for gold yet, but this bears watching because if the metal flow stops or reverses, the real #silversqueeze likely gets delayed for a while.
Click to expand...

 
Make NO mistake, things are getting serious and starting to break. Volatility will just increase for quite some time now I think.
 
lol... Vince deleted the tweet with the poll that I was replying to.
 
FINRA and the $EC and Neck deep in this shit. So if you think the regulators have even the slightest handle on this, know that they've been helping cloth the Emperor for a long time now. FINRA tried hiding the last set of CAT error data and eventually released it after many phone calls and threats.
 
Speculation that the CME raised margins on gold and silver to stem the capital rotation from the stock market:

...
3/9 Now you know what signal it meant. In a situation where stocks are dumped and precious metals are rallied it means "we don't trust the Financial assets, nor the currency".
So when the real issue is sterilization problems and velocity at the Fed. It was just not authorized to happen let me explain....
4/9 As I have explained many times #BTC is non-inflationary liquidity decoy to absorb this excessive liquidity without creating inflation. As explained in a previous post, if the liquidity was going into food and metals, this would create inflation with 2nd & 3rd consequences.
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6/9 Except that the liquidity was going into PM until the 3td of April, while stocks were going down hence of course the necessary intervention on April 3rd and raising the margins.
IT HAD TO BE STOPPED. MARGINS.
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Click to expand...

threadreaderapp.com

Thread by @GraphCall on Thread Reader App

@GraphCall: 1/9 Precious Metals: It stinks more than you think, Let's stop & think for a minute. What was happening in markets? From Feb 21st the Nasdaq was already in trouble while the Precious Metals Gold and...…
threadreaderapp.com threadreaderapp.com
 
Bitcoin has been highly (like >90%) correlated with stocks since October. The weekend trading action for Bitcoin can be a strong indicator where stocks are headed Sunday night/Monday...

 
We opened up down almost 5% and we are down pretty good right now. SPY would be around 487 right now I think. Silver flirted with $1 down but I want more there.

The nice thing here is that dealers are Actually following with prices for now. So you really can get the real stuff cheaper.
 
JUST IN: 🇯🇵 Japan's Nikkei 225 stock futures trading suspended due to circuit breaker.

@BRICSNews

JUST IN: 🇨🇳 Hang Seng China stock index crashes 9.1%

@BRICSNews
 
my attempt at charting.

looking at this the time to sell was early March when it broke through support

big (1).gif

Looks as if the bottom is in... but it could continue further in these uncertain times.

big 10.14.13 PM.gif
 
I know stocks are down but its Bonds that are and must be the focus. And they've absolutely crashed the last 4 days. Yields waaaay UP. You can see how large those bars are compared to the others. Bonds are not supposed to move like this. It will also put EXTREME pressure on Banks, Insurance Cos, etc who hold bonds.

1744200625907.png
 
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