Private crop yield estimates optimistic
Aug 8, 2023
14:36
Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):
- September corn down $.22 at $4.82
- December 2023 corn down $.18 at $4.95
- September soybeans down $.22 at $13.48
- November soybeans down $.29 at $13.02
- September soybean oil up 1.00 cent at 64.08 cents/lb
- September soybean meal down $4.60 at $419.20/short ton
- September 2023 wheat down $.08 at $6.57
- July 2024 wheat up $.45 at $7.36
- June WTI Crude Oil down $.22 at $81.66/barrel
Weekly Highlights
• Oil prices spike for a moment after the Energy Information Agency reported US oil stocks fell 4% week over week. Concerns in the broader market then cooled prices. Midwest Distillate fuel (diesel) stocks have also rebuilt after being relatively tight.
• US ethanol production fell to 314 million gallons- down from the multi-year high of 322 million gallons the week prior.
• USDA’s most recent ag export sales report was slightly bearish for corn and slightly bullish for beans.
• The conflict in the Black Sea escalated again Thursday evening when Ukrainian forces attacked the Russian port of Novorossiysk. This is the first time during the conflict Russian supplies of grains have been threatened.
• Open interest positions were mixed on the week but largely down: corn (+2.5%) and cotton (+7.5%) were up while soybeans (-5.4%), soybean oil (-2.8%), and soybean meal (-0.1%) and rough rice (-0.7%).
• Managed money traders decreased their net long positions of Chicago corn and soybeans by 9,862 and 26,246 futures and options positions respectively.
• US farm land values gained 7.4% in 2023 compared to 2022, rising to $4,080/ acre. Crop land was up 8.1% while pasture land values were up 6.7%.
• Weekly US Ag Export Inspections for last week were relatively soft for grains and oilseeds. Wheat was bearish coming in below the range of pre-report expectations.
• US corn condition composite score increased 4 points to 349 (perfect score 500). Soybean condition composite score increased 5 points to 345. Cotton conditions dropped 3 points to 300. Rice was up 3 points to 383. Sorghum was up 6 to 351. Spring wheat down 6 to 319.
• 87% of the US winter wheat crop has been harvested compared to 85% at this time last year and a three-year average of 88%.